One of the top young tight ends in the NFL and fantasy football, Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth projects to be an early pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top players in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Freiermuth’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Pat Freiermuth fantasy outlook for 2022
It’s hard for a rookie tight end to become relevant in fantasy. I’d argue it is the hardest position to learn in football as there are so many things they need to master. For one, your own players and routes from both sides of the formation plus the hot reads. Then you need to know how to read your QB. Do you need to sit down in the zone or keep traveling? Also, you need to do that on the fly as you read the LBs and their coverage. If that’s not enough, you have to learn the blocking calls and checks and try to block and/or chip defensive ends who are the best pass rushers in the game.
Head still spinning? I’m not surprised. Yet this is exactly why Freiermuth’s rookie season was as special as it was. Playing in 16 games, he was the TE13 on the season and TE17 in per-game scoring (9.5 PPR).
Recording 60 receptions on 79 targets (11.6% target share), Freiermuth posted 497 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. His 8.3 yards-per-catch average does leave quite a bit to be desired, but this was also a product of both being a red-zone target and Ben Roethlisberger’s 6.6 AIAY (average intended air yards).
Friermuth, despite his talent, faces an uphill battle for elite fantasy production
It’s actually more impressive when you see he ran a route on just 56% of the team dropbacks. But that is also the issue. To find breakout TEs, we need to find players who block on 20% or less of the plays but also line up in the slot, not just inline. For truly elite upside, they need two things: 90+ targets, 10+ touchdowns, or both. Every single top-five tight end in PPR has fit these criteria since 2005. It holds true for half-PPR as well, except for Mark Andrews in 2020.
While I love Freiermuth, I don’t see him hitting any of the statistical thresholds or aligning in the slot more. Tight ends are critical in the rushing game for the Steelers. It’s also been one of Freiermuth’s strengths since his time at Penn State. Freiermuth falls into the range of several players that carry low-end TE1/high-end TE2 upside. However, any dip in touchdowns could place Freiermuth close to a player who should be on waivers rather than starting lineups.
How the Steelers depth chart impacts Pat Freiermuth’s fantasy projection for the season
If there is one thing that works in Freiermuth’s favor is the lack of competition at his position. Zach Gentry is the No. 2 on the depth chart but saw 25 targets and 28% of the snaps in his 12 games. Pittsburgh also has Kevin Rader, Jace Sternberger, and drafted TE/FB Conner Heyward out of Michigan State.
Heyward is the younger brother of DT Cam Heyward and makes the fourth duo of brothers on the Steelers’ roster (Watts, Edmunds, Davis, and Heywards). Assuming he makes the 53-man roster, Heyward is likely to serve more in the run-blocking game as a FB than compete for targets.
The largest question on Pittsburgh’s depth chart and how much it will impact Freiermuth is at QB. Will Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett target Freiermuth similarly to what Big Ben did? Tight ends have been important to Trubisky.
In games where TEs recorded 40+ receiving yards during his three years as a starter (eight), Trubisky completed 66% of his passes and threw 17 TDs to four INTs. They help him stay in rhythm and give him a safe, over-the-middle option that he can target for easy completions. Those completions help to keep the chains moving and drives alive, hopefully ending in the red zone and scoring chances for Freiermuth.
Freiermuth’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 110, Freiermuth is coming off the boards as the TE11 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the middle of the ninth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Freiermuth is also the TE11, as the 115th ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I am slightly lower on Freiermuth. He comes in as my TE12 in my rankings and 123rd player overall.
Odds are last year’s season is this year’s floor from a volume standpoint. I don’t see him once again running a route in just 56% of the dropbacks. Not when those are easy completions to keep a drive moving. Once Eric Ebron was injured (Week 6), Freiermuth saw it jump to 67%, which again feels like a floor.
If there was an area in which Freiermuth can regress, it is in the touchdown department after scoring on 11.6% of his receptions, which was the third highest in 2021 behind Dawson Knox (18.37%) and Hunter Henry (18.0%).
Freiermuth is a great late-round option, right in the same range as Albert Okwuegbunam and Cole Kmet if you want to wait on a tight end. Of the three, Kmet will see the most volume as he is the only one who is the No. 2 option on his respective team. Still, in the ninth round or even later, Freiermuth is a reliable pick that should put up starting-caliber numbers for you in fantasy in 2022.