Through two seasons, Pittsburgh Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth is averaging 8.4 half-PPR fantasy football points per game, good for 12th best at the position (minimum 15 games played) over that stretch. Of course, as is the nature at tight end, he’s walking a fine line between useful and useless. Increase Freiermuth’s average production by 1.5 ppg, and we are looking at TE5 … bring it back by 1.5, and he’s outside the top 20.
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Pat Freiermuth’s Fantasy Outlook
The 2023 Steelers are going to look a lot like the version that ended last season. Kenny Pickett is back under center for his second season, while Diontae Johnson and George Pickens return as the top two threats in the passing game.
Allen Robinson II is penciled in as the WR3 in Pittsburgh’s offense, a name that holds more value than his production these days. Entering his age-30 season, the pride of Penn State has just 749 yards and four touchdowns on his résumé over the past two seasons (22 games).
The backfield will again feature Najee Harris, with Jaylen Warren backing him up. The Steelers opted for a more aggressive approach last year than in Harris’ rookie campaign, and that resulted in a major drop off in his pass-game involvement (21 more catches in 2021 than he had targets in 2022).
Is There Enough Volume in This Offense To Support 3 Pass Catchers?
Freiermuth profiled as a post-up and feed-me type of tight end during his rookie season with Ben Roethlisberger calling the shots. He scored seven times in 2021 (average distance: 7.9 yards) and was rarely asked to do much running downfield (5.5-yard aDOT).
Then Pickett took over last season, and while Freiermuth’s volume spiked (98 targets), the increase in aDOT (+53.2%) tanked his efficiency and held him to just two scores.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections
So yes, I think the volume is fine. Freiermuth saw 19 more targets last year than in 2021, and that came in a season in which Johnson cleared 140 targets for a third straight season. Sure, Pickens is likely to see his target rate increase in his sophomore season, but barring him elevating to WR1 status, there should be enough looks to go around.
The value of those targets? Now that’s something we need to consider.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Freiermuth at His ADP?
Freiermuth is being drafted at the top of my third tier at the position, so while I think the overall price is fine, I’m far more likely to wait two-plus rounds for the services of Cole Kmet in a punt-TE build.
By kicking the tight end can down the road another few rounds, you’re able to target upside at the receiver position by way of Gabe Davis or Jordan Addison with your ninth-round selection … players I have tiered well above the receivers who will be on the board two rounds later (the Rashod Batemans and Tyler Boyds of the world).