The Carolina Panthers are coming off a solid win over their divisional opponent, the New Orleans Saints. Bryce Young turned in a 57th percentile performance in EPA (expected points added) and 56th percentile performance in CPOE (completion percentage over expected), and this doesn’t even account for several throws that were dropped. Young is finally starting to show some of the promise and poise we often saw while at Alabama.
The New York Giants were able to keep it close with the Washington Commanders despite pressuring Jayden Daniels six times for zero sacks. They now fall to 2-7, and many fans are wondering if Brian Daboll will get a shot at winning with another quarterback this offseason. I think he deserves it.
We take a look at what to expect in our Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants prediction below.
Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Giants -6.5 - Moneyline
Giants (-278); Panthers (+225) - Over/Under
40.5 total points - Game Time
9:30 a.m. ET, Sunday, Nov. 10 - Location
Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
Panthers vs. Giants Preview and Prediction
Even with his good performance last week, the Young-led Panthers offense is 30th in EPA when he is on the field. Surprisingly, pressure hasn’t been what Young struggles with. He ranks 16th among 36 quarterbacks this season in EPA per dropback under pressure.
Where he has struggled is quick, timing-based passing. With a time to throw under 2.5 seconds, Young ranks 35 of 36 quarterbacks in EPA.
Nice work under pressure from Bryce Young. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/plgbuCZl9q
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 16, 2023
On dropbacks over 2.5 seconds, Young ranks 32nd. Still awful, but there is a clear upside to how he plays the game, and it comes from being able to move outside the pocket and create.
If he can figure out the little things, the Panthers’ offense would be much improved. The Panthers rank 17th in quick pressures allowed, and the Giants rank 23rd in generating quick pressure. This bodes well for Carolina’s offense.
Another potential advantage is that the Panthers’ offense ranks 11th in rushing EPA while the Giants’ defense ranks 19th in defensive rushing EPA. Furthermore, the Giants’ defense ranks 30th in rushes of 10 or more yards allowed and 20 or more yards. However, Carolina hasn’t been much better, ranking 28th in rushes of 10 or more yards and 22nd in rushes of 20 or more yards.
Offensively, the Giants have been a below-average unit, ranking 24th in EPA, 20th in success rate, and 21st in explosive plays. They should have a much better go at it facing off against a Panthers defense ranking 31st in EPA, 23rd in explosive plays allowed, and a defense that has the most predictable coverage schemes according to my Shannon entropy calculations.
It is difficult to get a read on game-script situations for these teams as they both rank in the bottom four in terms of plays in a positive game-script situation. While Young was able to take advantage of an injured Saints defense that ranks 27th in defensive EPA since week five, the Giants are still a slightly better team but not enough to cover the spread.
My pick: Panthers +6.5 (-110)
At the link here, you can follow along with all the bets I have given out in these articles. This will help you to keep track of the progress we make together as the season goes along!