The Green Bay Packers have an intriguing combination of four talented wide receivers, but from a fantasy football perspective, they create somewhat of a headache.
With all four on the roster, it can be tough for one or two of them to consistently produce for fantasy managers.
Let’s take a look at the fantasy outlook for Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks to see which could be the best value option this season.
Jayden Reed Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 207.4 (145.7 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 61.7
- Receiving Yards: 764.3
- Receiving TDs: 7.7
There were games last season where the Packers went out of their way to scheme the ball to their dynamic rookie. Then, there were games like the NFL playoffs, where Reed played 46% and 61% of the snaps and saw seven total targets in two games.
There’s no denying Reed’s talent. He was efficient with his limited touches last season. The Packers even utilized Reed as a rusher, giving the ball 11 times on the ground, which he turned into 119 yards and two touchdowns.
Reed operated primarily out of the slot as a receiver, which is where he does his best work. He spent 67% of his time there.
The bad news is he only commanded a 17.6% target share. The good news is he was targeted on 24.4% of his routes run, 26th in the league.
Reed didn’t run nearly as many routes as we’d like, but the Packers threw to him when he did.
I really want to be in on Reed this season. I love the player. Unfortunately, I don’t see much changing with how the Packers handle their wide receivers.
Some weeks, we will get a heavy dose of Reed. In other weeks, it will be Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, or even Bo Melton. The Packers have a bunch of young receivers and deploy them all.
Reed averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game last season. At his WR35, No. 79 overall ADP, he will probably end up being worth that slot. The question is whether you can stomach the volatility.
Reed had five games of at least 19 fantasy points last season and another two more with 15+. The weekly upside is there. Just know there will be weeks where he is frustratingly not targeted and a drain on your lineup.
Sadly, as much as I like him, I have Reed ranked as my WR39. He will probably finish higher than that, but there are receivers I believe have greater upside than Reed. It looks like I won’t be rostering much Reed this season.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Christian Watson Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 168.8 (124.4 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 44.4
- Receiving Yards: 665.1
- Receiving TDs: 7.8
Watson was one of the most difficult players to assess heading into the 2023 season. His 2.4 yards per route run as a rookie was 12th in the league. That was very encouraging. However, he only commanded a 15.2% target share. His seven touchdowns on 41 receptions was clearly an unsustainable level of efficiency.
Watson scored 6.3 fantasy points or fewer in four of his nine games last season. In three others, he scored 10.5, 11.6, and 10.2. Based purely on these numbers alone, we shouldn’t care about Watson. But it’s those last two games that really entice us to give him a chance.
Jordan Love broke out in a huge way last season, establishing himself as a clear NFL starter and one of the better QBs in the NFL. He’s more than capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant WRs.
Love is also being drafted as a top-12 quarterback. Given that he’s not a rusher, if Love finishes as a QB1, his pass catchers will follow him. The problem with the latter point is fantasy managers have no idea which ones will.
Reed’s WR35 ADP is the highest among Packers WRs. Watson is next at WR43 — No. 98 overall. Doubs is not far behind at WR53. Wicks is the cheapest of the bunch at WR63.
All four of these players are going to be drafted in most leagues, so they are not worth rostering. Love is not sustaining four WRs.
Typically, the logic behind taking shots on cheap WRs tethered to good quarterbacks is to embrace the ambiguity. To an extent, I buy that with the Packers.
Initially, I was out on Watson. But as the Summer wore on and I considered the pros and cons of drafting him, I steadily moved him up my rankings, landing at WR44.
This still looks like a WR room by committee, but Watson is the one with big-play upside. The most likely outcome is that Watson is not an every-week starter, but he will have his weeks if he can stay healthy. I have warmed up to the idea of taking a chance on Watson at or below his ADP.
– Katz
Romeo Doubs Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 179.7 (114.0 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 65.8
- Receiving Yards: 710.1
- Receiving TDs: 6.9
Doubs averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game last season. He was the overall WR46. Those numbers are certainly good enough to warrant rostering in fantasy leagues, but Doubs was never more than a desperation Flex play at best.
Doubs was very erratic last season, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. When talking about a fringe fantasy starter, we’d much rather have the guy giving us five games of 16+ fantasy points and eight complete duds over the guy who just gets us 10 every week.
Doubs’s ADP is WR53, which puts him at No. 139 overall. He’s 10 spots behind Watson and 18 spots behind Reed. I have Doubs ranked as my WR56, which is not too far behind consensus.
Ultimately, I just don’t have much interest in these wide receivers outside of Watson if he falls below ADP. Reed is too expensive, given his role. Watson offers the most upside but also carries the most risk. Doubs is capable enough, but there does not appear to be much upside.
Because he’s the cheapest, Wicks is interesting, but the more I think about it, the less I buy any sort of substantial role increase. 2024 Doubs will probably look a lot like 2023 Doubs. That’s not someone I am particularly interested in targeting.
– Katz
Dontayvion Wicks Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 152.3 (103.5 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 48.8
- Receiving Yards: 726.5
- Receiving TDs: 5.0
Wicks is the cheapest of the Packers’ WRs at WR63. I want to like Wicks, but I can’t rank him much higher than his ADP, which is exactly where I have him. That doesn’t mean I don’t want to take shots on him in the final round of some of my drafts, though.
Things happen during an NFL season. Watson has struggled to stay on the field. Reed seems to be destined for less than an every-down role. Injuries can happen to any player.
There are certainly scenarios where Wicks could end up in a more prominent role than he’s currently projected for. Given what he showed us last season, there’s reason to believe that if given the opportunity, he would thrive. That’s worth the gamble at the cost of free.
Nevertheless, I caution fantasy managers against getting overzealous with Wicks. This is still a fifth-round sophomore who commanded a mere 11.7% target share as a rookie. He was better than expected and a legitimately good receiver, but not exactly close to being a relevant fantasy asset.
Take some shots. Just don’t be afraid to cut bait early in the season if Wicks’ role looks similar to what it was last season.
– Katz