If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this fascinating Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams Week 15 matchup on Monday Night Football, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Packers vs. Rams Prop Bets To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These recommended bets assume the Packers will prevail by at least a touchdown. There are many factors contributing to the resulting game script. Here are two macro issues.
First, Green Bay’s still fighting for a playoff spot. Their odds are slim, but they’re legitimate. The Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions await them. At their best, the Packers field an excellent RB tandem — led by one of the most efficient and versatile running backs in the game — as well as an increasingly healthy receiving corps.
I believe the Packers will play with the same sense of urgency they employed in their last two outings versus the Eagles and Bears. Despite losing Aaron Rodgers and playing on the road against Philly, the Packers still hung tough, thanks in part to a strong running game.
The following week, they came from behind in Chicago to earn the W, as AJ Dillon played some of his best football all year, even as Aaron Jones struggled.
This remains a good team. Not great — at least not most weeks. But it’s a unit filled with guys accustomed to playing deep into January.
Second, Baker Mayfield’s Week 14 heroics aside, these Rams don’t resemble the team that won the last Super Bowl. Too many injury-plagued holes, particularly on offense. Not their fault. It is what it is. But the notion that Mayfield, Cam Akers, and Van Jefferson can trot into Green Bay and play to their potential . . . I don’t see it.
With that in mind, here are my recommended prop bets for several key players.
Aaron Rodgers Prop Bets
If the Packers play their game tonight, Rodgers won’t throw more than 30 times. This has the makings of a ground-heavy performance, as the at-times cautious Rodgers looks to keep the chains moving and wear down L.A.’s defense.
- Passing yards under 229.5
(-125) — BetMGM - Passing attempts under 31.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Interceptions under 0.5
(-185) — DraftKings
AJ Dillon Prop Bets
We simply don’t know how much customary starter Aaron Jones will play. He was limited this week. This is also a win-or-else situation.
MORE: Rams vs. Packers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for Week 15
Still, when it comes to scoring probabilities, Dillon might have the edge. The Rams have surrendered eight rushing scores this season. Six of Dillon’s seven touchdowns last year came from the 7-yard line or closer. This year he has one goal-line score, as well as two from 20+.
Will he get a goal-line look tonight? The odds are probably about 50/50.
- Anytime TD
(+140) — FanDuel
Baker Mayfield Prop Bets
Mayfield has had more time to acclimate to his new team. But he has a tougher assignment than last week, and also much higher expectations.
Let’s keep in mind that Mayfield endured several underwhelming campaigns in Cleveland — partially due to injuries, but still squarely on his shoulders. Then he joined the Panthers as their starter, only to be demoted to the No. 3 QB role when reality set in.
Mayfield is operating with one of the least effective receiving corps in the league — arguably worse than what he had in Carolina. He’s a long shot to throw for 200+ yards tonight; 170 or less is more realistic. And a benching after throwing two picks is a distinct possibility.
- Passing yards under 193.5
(-113) — FanDuel
Cam Akers Prop Bets
How long will the Rams stick with Cam Akers? I get that Green Bay’s given up 5.0 yards per carry. But it’s a more respectable 4.3 versus RBs. And there’s no guarantee Akers earns more than 10 or even 12 carries — and that probably won’t be enough to exceed this prop line.
On the whole, rookie Kyren Williams has run better in limited opportunities. He’s averaging one more yard per carry than Akers is. L.A. is looking to 2023. They probably want to see what they have in Williams. This might be the game where the rookie gets more run.
- Rushing yards under 56.5
(-105) — DraftKings