If you’re looking for Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Sunday Night Football DFS picks in Week 18, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Packers Considerations
A win sends Green Bay back to the postseason. The last time they clinched a playoff spot in the final week was in the 2013 season versus the Bears, when Aaron Rodgers threw the game-winning TD pass to Randall Cobb on fourth-and-eight with 38 seconds to go.
Nine years later, an aged Rodgers and (relatively speaking) Cobb once again will try to make magic. But I’m not interested in paying big money for Rodgers in a DFS lineup, and Cobb’s low floor makes him too risky.
Instead, as we weigh DFS options, we should consider how the Packers have gone from 4-8 to 8-8 in a season that’s gone from disastrous to hopeful. Rodgers has tossed only one TD pass per contest during this four-game winning streak on a mere 202 passing yards per outing.
By comparison, Aaron Jones has 323 total yards and a TD during this stretch, while AJ Dillon has 279 total yards and five scores. Jones has earned 59 touches, while Dillon’s collected 60.
They’re facing a Detroit defense that’s surrendered 5.3 yards per carry — the second most in the league. They’ve also given up 22 rushing scores — the third most in the league.
As we consider the most likely game scenarios, we need to lean heavily into an experienced, talented Green Bay backfield that, at their best, form one of the NFL’s best RB tandems.
Lions Considerations
From 1-6 to 8-8. It’s been an incredible turnaround for a franchise with the misfortune of enduring perhaps the toughest September-October schedule in the NFL: Eagles, Commanders, Vikings, Seahawks, Patriots, Cowboys, and Dolphins. Ironically, they finally got going against the Packers in Week 9.
In a game that I expect to move quickly (thanks to a proficient Green Bay RB corps that should burn plenty of clock), I believe this situation will be compounded by Detroit.
What I mean is the Lions will be incentivized to use their own RB tandem to help move the chains and limit the Packers’ possessions. Because as great as their passing game has looked, we have a pretty good sense of who Jared Goff is.
Against weak pass defenses, Goff has thrived for years. But against tougher pass D’s, he’s often fallen flat or been middling at best.
The Packers D is yielding the fourth fewest passing yards and is tied for third with 17 interceptions. When these teams last faced, Jaire Alexander picked off Goff, while he and the rest of the secondary limited Amon-Ra St. Brown to a modest 4-55-0 receiving line on nine targets.
But the Packers are barely better than Detroit against the run. If the Lions want to compete, they’ll likely need to lean heavily on their one-two punch out of the backfield.
Top NFL DFS Picks for SNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: RB Aaron Jones, Packers ($15,000)
Although not as consistently dominant as in years past, Jones arguably is one of the two highest-upside DFS options in this contest. He’s averaging a blistering 5.3 yards per carry and has a career-high 56 receptions. This pseudo-playoff game was made for Jones.
Flex: RB D’Andre Swift, Lions ($7,600)
The oft-injured RB is one of the game’s best when healthy. “When healthy” is the key. As dangerous as any running back through the air, Swift simply needs volume. I believe the Lions have no choice but to give it to him.
Flex: WR Allen Lazard, Packers ($7,400)
Christian Watson costs $9,000, in case you’re wondering. I can’t rationalize spending that much more on a receiver who’s not materially more likely to crack 12+ points. Lazard seems safe, and he has plenty of TD appeal.
Flex: RB Jamaal Williams, Lions ($7,000)
Not confident about this pick. We could opt for Rodgers or Goff instead, and then downgrade Lazard. But I’d rather roll the dice on a game script that pushes the Lions inside the Packers’ 10-yard line at least a couple of times. Swift and Jamaal Williams can handle the rest.
Flex: RB AJ Dillon, Packers ($6,800)
Of course. It took a while, but eventually, the Packers recommitted to Dillon, and he’s a key reason why they’re on the doorstep of the playoffs.
Flex: WR Romeo Doubs, Packers ($5,800)
A bit of a hedge alongside Lazard. Green Bay has three wideouts vying for No. 1 status on the team. Romeo Doubs is one of them. Injuries have slowed what began as an ultra-promising rookie campaign. Between him and Lazard, I’m eyeing 21+ DFS points.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.