The Green Bay Packers will face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Packers and Vikings skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold was great last week in Seattle (246 passing yards with three passing scores), has been great most of the season, and didn’t stumble in Lambeau (275 passing yards with three scores).
He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his past six games, and nothing in his profile suggests that regression is coming. With T.J. Hockenson proving healthy, Jordan Addison emerging, and Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson-ing, this Vikings squad is a dangerous one to bet against at this point.
The Packers rank 27th in blitz rate this season (18%), a strategy that has been picked at by Minnesota lately. Since Week 12, Lamar Jackson is the only QB with a higher passing touchdown rate when not blitzed than Darnold — this could be a highly entertaining game that paves the way for another fun NFC North battle next week with the Lions and Vikings.
Jordan Love, QB
Jordan Love wasn’t asked to do much in Monday night’s thrashing of the New Orleans Saints (16 completions for 182 yards and a touchdown), something that I don’t think we have to worry about this week.
Or maybe we do?
The Packers rank third in rush rate over expectation this season and appear more content to pound Josh Jacobs now than at any point this season. Not only does this help keep Justin Jefferson off the field, but it also wears down a defense and limits the number of times that Love can put the ball in harm’s way.
Working in Love’s favor is that the blitz-happy Vikings have so much going on around the line of scrimmage that they’re a tough defense when it comes to finishing drives against on the ground, allowing one rushing touchdown for every 48.1 opponent attempts (third-best).
Cheap touchdowns might be needed in this game, which I apparently like less from an offensive output standpoint than the bookmakers (under 49 points!).
Love’s QB+ numbers are actually better on the road than at home this season, but they haven’t translated into big fantasy production, and that’s the name of the game.
Love’s fantasy finishes, road games in 2024:
- Week 1, Eagles: QB11
- Week 5, Rams: QB14
- Week 8, Jaguars: QB35
- Week 11, Bears: QB11
- Week 14, Lions: QB15
- Week 15, Seahawks: QB10
If you’re combing through the box-score data and a 389-yard, four-touchdown first meeting against the Vikings jumps out, don’t forget that three TD passes in the fourth quarter of a one-sided game are fueling that stat line.
All production counts, sure, but are you projecting garbage time in a game where the home team is favored by 1.5 points? I’m not.
I think you can start Love; he’s my QB11. But I don’t think you have to — I have Jared Goff (at SF) and Bo Nix (at CIN) ranked just ahead of him.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Jacobs has 108 touches in the first quarter this season, the third-most through 16 weeks of a season over the past decade (Adrian Peterson had 112 in 2015, and so did David Johnson in 2016). That’s a fancy way of saying that the Packers were fully committed to him when they swapped out Aaron Jones for him this summer and are even more committed now.
Green Bay’s RB1 has run for a score in six straight games while hauling in four balls in three of his past four — this role isn’t far from elite status. He was scripted out of the first meeting with the Vikings (nine carries for 51 yards before the Packers were forced into comeback mode and threw 54 passes), something I don’t think happens this time around.
Jordan Love is a good QB, but it’s Jacobs’ production that makes this team a tough out. Look for Jacobs to continue producing high-end numbers at the position – you’re in a good spot if you’re starting him weekly!
Aaron Jones, RB
I think we are pretty comfortable in the labeling and projecting of Aaron Jones after 16 weeks — he’s safe. We are looking at 15-18 carries with 2-4 targets and reasonable scoring potential given the trajectory of this offense (152 points over its past five games).
In his first revenge game against the Packers, Jones gave us ceiling usage with 22 carries and five targets (139 scrimmage yards). If they pound him like that against a Green Bay team that is likely to do the same with Josh Jacobs, this could be a low-possession game that caps the upside of all involved.
Even if that’s the case, you’re getting bell-cow work in an efficient offense – I prefer Jacobs to Jones, but you’re playing both.
Jordan Addison, WR
Over the past two weeks, none of Jordan Addison’s 12 catches have gained 20 yards (previously, in his career, one of every 4.2 receptions picked up 20 yards).
Sheesh, Kyle, talk about nitpicking.
It should be viewed as a badge of honor when I do something like that; it means that a player has produced at such a level that they deserve that sort of attention. Over his past six games, Addison has averaged 2.4 yards per route and produced 33.2% over fantasy expectations. He’s been phenomenal, which means he can be flexed with confidence this week.
In the Week 4 meeting with the Packers, he scored twice: once on a 29-yard pass in the first quarter and the other on a nice second-quarter run design. That was back in September, and the Vikings were scheming ways to get him involved. Given the recent run, they are only more motivated to feature him, and with the Packers traveling on a short week, I think you can feel just fine in riding this heater for another week.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Romeo Doubs has a pair of two-touchdown games this season; if you’re comfortable in your ability to project those, come work for us!
I’m smart enough to know what I don’t know, and this is one of those things. Believe me, I’ve tried. The matchups in which he thrived were different and his role entering those big spots was different. Both big games came against the NFC West in lopsided Packer wins; if you believe in those trends, fine, but neither is in play this week.
I’ve had trust issues with every Packer pass catcher all season long, and Doubs (sub-20 % target rate for his career) has yet to prove himself as anything more than a dart throw.
A blind dart throw.
No thanks.
Justin Jefferson, WR
Jefferson is as good as it gets, and taking time out from a busy football weekend to watch this man work is something I’d recommend to any football fan. We saw him put together a 6-85-1 stat line (29.6% target share) in the Week 4 meeting with these Packers when they were at the peak of their powers in terms of opportunistic playmaking.
This unit is still solid, but Jefferson is as matchup-proof as anybody in the business, and I expect to get more evidence of that this weekend.
Jordan Addison is ascending quickly, and guess what? It doesn’t matter. In December, Jefferson produced 45.5% more points than expected on his targets. Is it possible that the small target volume of Addison’s breakout takes off Jefferson’s plate and is more than replaced by increased efficiency?
That’s a scary thought. There’s never a reason to be concerned about Jefferson — watch him play this week and start putting together what you think the first round of 2025 drafts is going to look like. Spoiler alert: There won’t be many names called before JJetta.
Jayden Reed, WR
Jayden Reed is my pick and has been among the top talent in Green Bay’s receiver room.
Jayden Reed isn’t a full-time player.
Sadly, both of those things are true. He’s reached a 61% snap share just once in his past six games, and that helps explain why he’s reached double digits in the expected PPR points column just twice since the middle of October.
Reed did pick apart Minnesota back in Week 4 to the tune of seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown on eight looks, something that I’m comfortable reading into. The Vikings could adjust, but their league-leading blitz rate does leave them susceptible to well-executed quick-timing routes, something that Reed has proven plenty capable of (8.1 aDOT, 38.1 air yards per game).
I was hopeful he’d be a blind start at this point, but he’s not. He’s Adam Thielen but with better quarterback play and more target competition. I have both of those receivers ranked in the mid-30s as playable pieces but far from lineup locks.
Christian Watson, WR
Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Watson is inactive for today's game.
Christian Watson is always one play away from an injury (yeah, yeah, yeah, technically everyone is, but you understand what I’m getting at), and he’s again banged up with a vague lower-body injury.
The man runs 11 routes, finally sees a target on the 12th, and then leaves injured. The Packers’ offense takes on a different look when Watson is right, and that is something they are going to need if they want to make a playoff run. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps this weekend, and even if he does, the Vikings own the third-highest deep ball interception rate and excel at taking away those long shots.
Jayden Reed is the only receiver I have interest in this week for the Packers, though the ancillary pieces can have some upside should Watson sit.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
Dontayvion Wicks scored on Green Bay’s opening drive in their dominant win over New Orleans, his first trip to the end zone since Week 7. The snapping of the scoring drought was good to see, but it was his only action of the game, and he’s pretty clearly an afterthought in an offense with no shortage of options.
Wicks was a popular sleeper this preseason as a way to get cheap exposure to a strong offense — as it turns out, not all offenses, even the strong ones, consistently support multiple pass catchers.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
Since his return, T.J. Hockenson hasn’t been all that impactful. That isn’t surprising, but the “how” behind it has been.
It’s Jordan Addison.
After a pair of ramp-up weeks, the Vikings got their tight end up to where they appear to be content with in terms of snap share (mid-60 %). He hasn’t had any setbacks that would lead me to believe that limitations or aggravation are to blame for 7.3 PPR points per game in December.
The emergence of Addison has simply made Hockenson’s role less advantageous. His on-field target share is down three percentage points from a season ago. With an aDOT that is up 15.8%, that brings into the equation two-for-27 stinkers like what we saw over the weekend in Seattle.
I fear that it’s possible we moved, rather quickly, from Tier 1 TJ to The Goedert Zone. In Philadelphia for the past three seasons, they’ve had a pair of strong receivers, and while their tight end served a purpose, he wasn’t the same asset he was before (14.8 yards per catch in 2021 and 11.4 since the acquisition of A.J. Brown).
It’s hard to make three pass catchers viable on a consistent basis, and the Vikings seem to be leaving heavily in favor of a 22-year-old former first-round pick over a tight end in his sixth season after a serious injury.
I can’t say I blame them. I also can’t say that I’d be overly comfortable in starting Hockenson this week. I’ve got him sitting at TE11 right now, just ahead of Brenton Strange but behind Chig Okonkwo and Dalton Schultz.
Tucker Kraft, TE
Updated at 2:55 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Kraft is active for today's game.
Tucker Kraft was fantasy’s second-best tight end for a month-long stretch (Weeks 5-8 in non-PPR, TE7 in PPR). Let this production curve serve as a reminder of the risk that comes with streaming the position.
I’ll cover it more this offseason, but if you’re going to piece together a position, you have to fully commit to it. It was easy to fall in love with the production, and I have no problem with holding on a week or two too long. But based on the questions I was getting around Kraft, many held on way too long.
From Weeks 6-12, he had one game with an on-field target share of over 12.1%. One. There were some strong box-score numbers, but an underlying trend like that (something you’re in a position to be aware of because you’re checking out PFN content daily!) should have you proceed with caution.
One final note here, outside of not playing Kraft with any level of confidence — buy in. Your plan was to stream the position, and thus, you’re confident in your ability to do so. Assuming that’s the case, you have an edge in your league and would be wise to maximize it.
So, why not sell Kraft during a run like he was having? Worst case, you’re selling him for a price that is close to his value, but the reward for getting out from underneath an unsustainable profile early can result in big gains (could you have gotten Jordan Addison or Jauan Jennings for him during that run?).