The Green Bay Packers will face the Philadelphia Eagles on Wild Card Weekend. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Packers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Are you looking for advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jordan Love, QB
All seems good health-wise for Jordan Love after the Week 18 scare, but I’m not interested in going in this direction.
First and foremost, I’m not sure the Packers have the ball often enough. The Eagles average nearly 32.5 minutes of possession per game, the highest rate in the league and a threat to be surpassed in this game should they get out to an early lead.
Philadelphia ranked seventh in pressure rate, an impressive mark for the team that blitzes at the second-lowest rate in the league. Everything seems to come together at the right time, the strength that has impacted my ranking of Love more than anything.
In Weeks 11-16, Love’s pressured passer rating was 107.2, a number that has plummeted to 53.6 in two consecutive losses to round out the regular season. Green Bay’s path to success is not fantasy-friendly for Love — that has me passing on this passing game.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs has rushed for a touchdown in a franchise-record eight straight games and averaged 5.1 yards per carry over his past three. He’s been able to add value in the passing game, catching each of his past 13 targets, and is peaking at the perfect time
The Packers have fully committed to Jacobs being their offensive guiding light (third in rush rate over expectation this season), and it’s largely working. That said, there is some risk in this game situation with the Packers expected to trail.
Like every team, Green Bay prioritizes the pass when trailing. Their dropback rate is 15.3 percentage points higher when trailing than when ahead (league average difference: 14.7 percentage points), which certainly needs to be considered in this discussion.
Add to the projected game script the fact that these are the two highest-rush-rate teams in the league (fueling a bottom-10 pace), and I don’t think Jacobs has a great chance at averaging the 19.8 touches that he averaged per game this season.
Philadelphia allows a touchdown on just 17.5% of drives (third best in the NFL; league average: 22.7%), giving Jacobs one fewer path to success. I will not have much Green Bay exposure, be it in DFS or postseason-long formats, and Jacobs is the most expensive of the bunch.
Christian Watson, WR
Matt LaFleur speculated following the Week 18 loss to the Bears that he wasn’t “super confident” that Christian Watson would be available in the short term after suffering a knee injury and he was right – the 25-year-old tore his ACL and will likely miss the beginning of next season.
Watson has struggled to regain the form he showcased for a brief moment as a rookie. In Weeks 11-13 of 2022, he rattled off a pair of 100-yard games with seven touchdown receptions on 27 targets — since then, he has had three 100-yard games and seven touchdown catches on his résumé across 131 targets.
Only time will tell when it comes to how productive he can be as he progresses through rehab, but in the short term, Dontayvion Wicks projects as the next man up. When comparing his profile this season with Watson on/off the field, he has the potential to give this offense the type of deep threat they need access to if they are going to upset the second-seeded Eagles.
Philadelphia boasts the second-lowest opponent completion percentage on deep passes, and that makes stretching the field an uphill battle for Jordan Love without Watson. Still, Wicks has shown enough to think that he can help fill the void.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
Dontayvion Wicks was held without a catch when these teams met in Brazil, but the math has changed since.
Christian Watson (ACL) is done for the season, and that opens up a role that the Packers will need if they are going to pull off an upset that many seem to think is possible. This season, 72.9% of Wicks’ routes have been run alongside Watson, making the scraping of data for the other 27.1% a small sample, but it’s all we have when trying to look at this specific situation.
With Watson off the field, Wicks’ aDOT has spiked by 26.7%. Those deep looks are his path to success in most matchups, but probably not on Sunday – the Eagles are the best defense against long passes in terms of yards per attempt and yards per completion (over 11% better than the league average in both of those categories).
That very much caps the upside of Wicks in the Wild Card Round, but it doesn’t completely rule him out. His involvement in the red zone has been much greater with Watson off the field (12.7% of his targets, up from 1.8% with him sharing the perimeter role).
The target distribution in Green Bay has been close to impossible to forecast weekly this season. Removing one name from the mix gives us a little more clarity, but it’s important to not confuse “more clarity” with “clarity.”
There are still plenty of names capable of sucking up usage in this offense, and the Packers’ clearest path to success is a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs. I’m not tempting fate by going to this passing game in most of my builds.
Jayden Reed, WR
I was pretty firm with my stance this preseason that Jayden Reed was set to be Green Bay’s unquestioned WR1 with a handful of players fighting for scraps behind him.
That simply hasn’t happened.
Heck, I was in trouble with that call from the jump. When these two teams played in Week 1, there was no real separation in the receiver profiles, something that hasn’t really changed.
Week 1 vs. Eagles, 2024:
- Romeo Doubs: 33 routes and 12.6 expected PPR points
- Christian Watson: 27 routes and 11.1 expected PPR points
- Reed: 27 routes and 10.5 expected PPR points
Reed did haul in a 70-yard touchdown in the second quarter of that game to give him the edge in actual fantasy points, but the split role has been more sticky than spike plays like that.
Watson will miss this game and the entire postseason, but Dontayvion Wicks looms as the next man up and this Packers offense is counting on the running game more now than at any point during the season. The Eagles are the best playoff team in terms of yards allowed per slot pass this season, making Reed’s already iffy role that much more risky.
Paying down for Tucker Kraft to clear the tight end position might be the play here. Green Bay projects to be in a negative game script and if you believe that, you’re going to want some exposure to this passing game. But with the target hierarchy still unsettled, I’m having a hard time going there with any level of confidence.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Romeo Doubs’ profile is starting to get very interesting, especially if you think the Packers can make some noise in the NFC. Now, it should be noted that Doubs was a late add to the Week 18 injury report and ultimately missed the game with an illness, though the Packers were playing for positioning and not their postseason lives in that game.
Packers WRs’ air yards per game since Week 12:
- Doubs: 75 yards
- Christian Watson: 74.3 yards
- Dontayvion Wicks: 42.2 yards
- Jayden Reed: 33.3 yards
We know that Watson is out for the remainder of the season and that Doubs led this team in targets when these teams kicked off their seasons in Brazil. He’s out-scored Reed in three of their past four games together, and while the DFS industry has priced the two next to one another, I expect ownership to either pay up a touch (DeVonta Smith) or down a few hundred dollars (Jalen McMillan).
This is a nice buying window, and those are hard to find in a six-game slate.
Tucker Kraft, TE
It sounds as if Jordan Love is going to be okay (fingers crossed). Assuming that’s the case, there’s a world in which a Tucker Kraft flier makes sense in a Wild Card DFS setting.
With Christian Watson out and Green Bay’s passing-game targets being variant to begin with, embracing the unknown is a reasonable path, especially if you think the Packers are playing from behind in this spot.
- Week 14 at Lions: 21.7% on-field target share
- Week 15 at Seahawks: 7.4% on-field target share
- Week 16 vs. Saints: 21.1% on-field target share
- Week 17 at Vikings: 10.3% on-field target share
- Week 18 vs. Bears: 25.9% on-field target share
Kraft has five straight games with a 20+ yard reception, a run that matches the longest streak at the position this season. That gives him the potential to create splash plays and/or reign in volume. If Kraft can do either of those things, he’s likely to pay off his price tag in Philadelphia.
I’m not the least bit worried about an underwhelming Week 1 showing in this matchup (2-27-0), but I would caution against going this route in playoff-long formats given the very low win expectancy for the green and gold.