The Green Bay Packers will face the Detroit Lions in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Packers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jordan Love, QB
I continue to be impressed with Jordan Love. On Sunday, his first 12 passes saw seven different players targeted, distribution patterns that rarely develop this early in careers.
Of course, his Week 8 came to an end early with a groin injury, and while all reports in the first half of this week are leaning in the positive direction, Green Bay’s schedule figures to be a part of the decision-making process when it comes to sending Love out there for Sunday’s marquee matchup.
- Week 10 bye
- Week 11 at Chicago Bears
- Week 12 vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 13 vs. Miami Dolphins (Thanksgiving)
- Week 14 at Detroit Lions (TNF)
Green Bay has several important games coming up, and with the bye following Sunday’s game, a cautious approach could prove to be sharp. The Lions are an average pass defense on all fronts, which will land Love inside my top 10 quarterbacks, so long as he is operating without limitations.
If Love were to sit, Malik Willis would again take over for the Packers — fantasy managers can do better. Caleb Williams (at ARI) and Tua Tagovailoa (at BUF) are far too available in ESPN leagues while Jameis Winston (vs. LAC) is still on plenty of wires — all of whom I’d play over Willis should you be forced to pivot.
Malik Willis, QB
Should Malik Willis get the nod for the Cheeseheads, I actually think they have a chance to compete. However, that works counter to his fantasy stock.
The reason I’d give Green Bay a puncher’s chance in this event is because they’d go out of their way to melt the clock — the old “your best defense is your offense” strategy to keep the high-flying Lions on the bench.
If the Packers are operating at a snail’s pace, we run into volume concerns across the board. Yes, Willis was QB6 in Week 3, but that came against a much less intimidating offense (Tennessee) and saw him average 10.6 yards per attempt while scoring 13.3 points with his legs.
Those rates aren’t sustainable. If you want to bet on Willis should he get the nod, take Green Bay with the points instead of putting him into any fantasy roster.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Jacobs has scored in three of his past four games after four scoreless efforts to open his Packers career and has finished each of those three weeks as a top-15 performer at the position.
With 18 carries or four catches in five straight games, Jacobs’ role is on the short list of the most favorable in the sport. The Lions have defended receivers well this season (fifth-lowest opponent passer rating when going that direction), and that gives this offense an example they don’t need to feature their bellcow.
In the most important game of Week 9, Jacobs reaching 20 touches for the fifth time this season wouldn’t shock me in the least. He’s currently sitting as my RB10, and that might be closer to his floor than anything. Start him with confidence — this week and every week moving forward.
Christian Watson, WR
Watson has a pair of big gains this season (37 and 44 yards), but that’s about all his 2024 résumé has on it. Outside of those two grabs, the burner is averaging 0.94 yards per route this season, a rate that doesn’t deserve our interest at all.
If you squint hard enough, you might be able to mine value from Watson in specific spots (I have my eyes on the Thanksgiving date with the Dolphins), but this isn’t one of them. Through eight weeks, the Lions have the fifth-lowest opponent passer rating on deep passes; that’s enough to talk me out of swinging for the fences.
For the record, the run-centric, low-octane (6.7 aDOT) stylings of Malik Willis will have Watson off my radar for any starts he makes.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR
The tools are in place for Wicks to be a one-off option in the perfect spot, but it would appear that such a spot isn’t going to be projectable barring an injury.
Wicks has been on the field for just 28% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps over the past three weeks, and I don’t care how highly you think of Jordan Love, that’s simply not enough to make him a reasonable Flex option.
On an encouraging note, Wicks’ target rate (targets divided by routes) is up to 28.6% this season, up from 20.4% last season. There are some positive trends to support this profile as a fantasy-viable one with time, but we aren’t there yet.
For the remainder of 2024, unless something changes in a big way, I’m viewing Wicks as a top-10 receiver handcuff more than a player with a realistic hope of working his way into a meaningful role without help.
Jayden Reed, WR
Reed set up the game-winning field goal last week courtesy of a 51-yard catch and run that came from Malik Willis, further cementing his status as the unquestioned top option in this potent passing attack
The Lions allow the fifth-fewest yards per catch after the reception this season, and that could neutralize Reed’s greatest strength to a degree, but this team has proved plenty capable of getting Reed opportunities (he had 10 of them with a touchdown against Detroit last Thanksgiving). I see no reason to think that chances in this spot.
Romeo Doubs, WR
I don’t want to over-simplify things, but I generally look to play Doubs when I think he has a better-than-average chance of scoring, and that’s it. For his career, 10.2% of his receptions have finished in the end zone, a nice skill set to have in this top-10 offense. However, I’m not ready to trust it regularly until he shows a greater ability to earn targets consistently.
I love what I saw last week from him, and that’s a start. Jordan Love trusted him enough to fire a 25-yard pass his way in the two-minute drill, trusting him in a single-coverage spot. Doubs also set up a Josh Jacobs touchdown by forcing a 21-yard pass interference penalty, another good sign when it comes to his connection with his QB.
My concern here is two-fold: 1) the risk that comes with Love being banged up the week before the bye and 2) Detroit being the top defense in terms of end-zone completion percentage (three completions on 19 attempts).
Starting a Packer receiver any week in which Love is calling the shots isn’t a bad option, though I do have players like Josh Downs and Keon Coleman ranked higher this week for those being asked to make a tight Flex decision.
Tucker Kraft, TE
Kraft has been a TE1 in four of five games since seeing his role expanded (over 81% snap share in each of those contests). The target rate is always going to be low given the number of options on this offense. But he is averaging one red-zone touch per game over this run, and that’s a role that should catch your eye.
If Jordan Love is active, I’m fine with considering Kraft as a top-10 tight end. If not, I’m looking to go elsewhere against a Lions defense that ranks sixth in terms of limiting red-zone trips and second-best on third downs.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers Insights
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have scored 30-plus points in four straight games – it’s the first SEASON in which they’ve scored 30 points in four games during the 2000s.
QB: Detroit has won five straight games, and in those games, Jared Goff has a 146.6 in-pocket passer rating (78-94 for 1,023 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception).
Offense: Jahmyr Gibbs has a 45-plus yard rush TD in consecutive games, the fifth running back to do that since 2016 (others: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt).
Defense: In four of their past six games, the Lions have held their opponent to an under-30 % conversion rate on third downs (last week vs. Titans: 3-0]of-11, 27.3%).
Fantasy: David Montgomery has scored in six of seven games this season, but he hasn’t cleared a dozen carries in a game since Week 3 at Arizona.
Betting: Since 2020, the Lions have been 28-13 ATS (68.3%) in games played after Halloween, which is three full games better than any other team.
Green Bay Packers
Team: The Packers ended last regular season winning six of eight games, and they’ve opened this season with a 6-2 mark (of those four losses, three came by fewer than six points).
QB: Jordan Love has thrown an interception in every game this season, and eight of nine have come when operating in the pocket.
Offense: The Packers entered the red zone on a season-high 46.2% of their drives against the Jaguars.
Defense: Green Bay forced Jacksonville to go three-and-out on 58.3% of their drives last week, the defense’s best showing this season.
Fantasy: The status of the QB position means the world in terms of fantasy efficiency for Josh Jacobs. In his last two games with Love starting, he’s come in 38.4% over expectation – in Malik Willis’ two starts, 39% under expectation.
Betting: Since 2020, the NFC North has the three top teams in over percentage in games played after Halloween (Packers: 62.8%, Lions: 61%).