The Green Bay Packers have taken the step forward that many expected in the 2024 season. However, it’s been a little hard to notice in the NFL‘s toughest division.
Are the Packers still in a strong position to make the playoffs? Below we examine Green Bay’s playoff outlook using PFN’s Playoff Predictor after their tough loss to the Detroit Lions on Thursday night.
Can the Packers Still Make the Playoffs?
After Green Bay’s Week 14 loss, the Packers are 9-4 but still have a 94.8% chance to make the playoffs.
However, where the loss hurts them is in the seeding and division. They now have a 1.9% chance for the first seed, a 1.7% chance for the second seed, a <0.1% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a 24.5% chance for the fifth seed, a 52.8% chance for the sixth seed, and a 13.9% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Packers Still Win the Division?
The Packers have a 3.7% chance to win the NFC North. That’s third behind the Lions (70.6%) and Minnesota Vikings (25.7%). The Chicago Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
Packers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 15: at Seattle Seahawks
- Week 16: vs. New Orleans Saints
- Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 18: vs. Chicago Bears
PFN’s Pregame Breakdown of Lions-Packers
Detroit’s Missing Offensive Piece
All-Pro Lions right tackle Penei Sewell makes most of the offensive line headlines in the Motor City. He’s an outstanding player, while Lions OC Ben Johnson hasn’t been afraid to get Sewell involved on a hook-and-ladder lateral (Week 6) or a potential pass attempt (Week 13).
But don’t sleep on Detroit left tackle Taylor Decker, who was sidelined by a knee injury during the club’s Thanksgiving Day win over the Chicago Bears. Decker isn’t practicing ahead of the Lions’ Week 14 matchup against the Packers and will be inactive.
Detroit boasts the NFL’s best offensive line, a unit that’s remained effective even when Decker has missed time. Still, Decker’s absence will represent a clear downgrade for the Lions’ passing and rushing attacks:
Lions Offense With and Without Taylor Decker
Passing efficiency
With Decker: 0.26 EPA per dropback (first)
Without Decker: 0.03 EPA per dropback (16th)
Passing success rate
With Decker: 55.1% (first)
Without Decker: 45.7% (16th)
Rushing efficiency
With Decker: 0.10 EPA per rush (first)
Without Decker: -0.03 EPA per rush (14th)
Rushing success rate
With Decker: 48.4% (first)
Without Decker: 41.7% (10th)
Rushing yards before contact
With Decker: 1.77 (fourth)
Without Decker 1.32 (19th)
Without Decker in the starting lineup, the Lions go from the NFL’s most electric offense to a middling unit. Fill-in Detroit left tackle Dan Skipper has allowed nine pressures on just 85 pass-blocking reps in 2024. It’s a small sample size, but Skipper ranks bottom-10 league-wide in pressure rate allowed among linemen with at least 75 pass-blocking snaps.
Jordan Love Is Lethal Against Pressure
Few quarterbacks have been as productive when faced with pressure as the Packers’ Jordan Love. He ranks fifth among all QBs in EPA per dropback and seventh in passing success rate when pressured.
Love averages an NFL-leading 8.7 yards per attempt under pressure and 8.1 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. He’s the only quarterback in the league averaging more yards when pressured than when not.
Obviously, that doesn’t mean the Lions should throw their hands up and not send pass rushers after Love on Thursday night. Like all quarterbacks, Love’s efficiency and consistency are much improved from a clean pocket.
Still, Love is more than capable of making plays outside of structure when pressure gets in his face. He’s been willing to take shots when pressured, too — his 11.1 average depth of target under pressure ranks third behind Anthony Richardson and Jayden Daniels.