The Detroit Lions are 11-1 and still historically dominant despite a tough, grind-it-out victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 13. The team continues to flex its incredible depth and will as the injuries stack up. Luckily, D.J. Reader, Taylor Decker, and Levi Onwuzurike are officially listed as questionable but are expected to play against the Green Bay Packers in Week 14.
The Packers are coming off three straight wins after their loss in the first matchup with the Lions. At 9-3, the Packers remain a Wild Card team because they are in the NFC North with two other teams already at 10+ wins on the season. To have a shot at a home playoff game, this is a must-win game for Jordan Love and the cheeseheads.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time and More
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions (-170); Packers (+142) - Over/Under
51.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m ET - Location
Ford Field
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Lions rank fourth in offensive EPA (expected points added) and second in defensive EPA per play. They also lead the league in opponents’ average starting field position, forcing opposing offenses to start 77.1 yards away from the end zone on average.
Outside of having positional advantage, the Lions’ defense has also excelled at pressuring the quarterback, ranking seventh with 36.8% of opposing dropbacks resulting in pressure. Despite blitzing at the seventh-highest rate in the league, the Lions are actually better rushing four, ranking fifth at 36.3%. The Packers’ offensive line ranks around average (14th) in pressure rate allowed against four pass rushers and 16th in general.
Love and the offense lead the league in EPA per play against four pass rushers but drop to 28th against five or more (blitz). Love went 2/9 with an interception and only 1.1 yards per attempt against Detroit blitzes in their matchup earlier this season. I expect Detroit to blitz even more this week, considering the immense success.
With such a tough starting field position, the Packers will need to either find explosive plays or move the ball consistently while avoiding turnovers. The Packers’ success rate ranks 15th, their explosive play rate ranks second (passes of 20+ and rushes of 10+), and their turnover rate ranks 16th. It’s pretty clear that the offense is not consistent down to down but depends heavily on the big play.
This could be a potentially interesting advantage — Detroit ranks ninth in preventing explosive rushes but 22nd against explosive passes. They also rank fifth in defensive success rate so the key for Green Bay’s offense will be predicated on explosive plays. The Packers had three passes of 20+ yards (league average is 2.95) and four runs of 10+ yards (league average is 3.21) but still struggled against the Lions’ defense.
Defensively, the Packers rank ninth in EPA per play but an absurd 28th in success rate. Mistakes explain the gigantic difference in down-to-down consistency versus overall effectiveness. The Packers’ defense ranks fourth in EPA gained from turnovers and 11th in EPA gained from penalties.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing if your defense can still play well consistently like the Lions, who rank third in defensive EPA gained from turnovers but also perform well down to down. The Lions’ offense wasn’t nearly as effective against Green Bay as they are against most teams.
After looking at the data, it’s important to go back to the film to see if they line up with one another. In this case, they don’t. The Lions’ offense performed just fine against Green Bay outside of what PFF considers a miscommunication on two plays.
One of these was with 1:03 remaining in the second quarter on a 3rd-and-9 in the red zone. The Packers brought a blitz, and Jared Goff immediately threw it to David Montgomery on a checkdown. It looks as if Montgomery had a choice route and made the correct decision but Goff didn’t have enough time to make the throw.
The second play came on a 3rd-and-10 in the fourth quarter at their own 39-yard line. Sam LaPorta ran the opposite direction of the throw after trying to create separation once the route wasn’t successful. Even if the first one was successful, it’s likely it wouldn’t have resulted in a first down.
Still, removing the LaPorta play would put them at 0.06 EPA per play, which is a 61st-percentile game and would rank ninth this season. On top of this, the Lions ran 67.12% of their plays in this game in a positive game script situation due to some wild Jordan Love turnovers. There wasn’t a single play in the entire game where the Lions had less than a 30% win probability — another reason their offense looked average on paper.
Love and the Packers struggled heavily in the red zone, averaging 1.5 yards per play and only managing nine points. Their EPA in the red zone was atrocious (-0.56) and a 19th-percentile performance. Looking at the entire season, they rank 15th in EPA in the red zone, showcasing that they aren’t typically that bad at converting but also aren’t stellar, either.
Overall, the Lions-Packers game wasn’t as close as the 24-14 score made it seem due to turnovers and red-zone issues. Both teams left some meat on the bone and have played much better football as of late. I am picking the Lions to win this game because the defense has been playing well in spite of injuries, and the offense is one of the best in the game from an explosive and consistency standpoint.
My pick: Lions -3