A surprise playoff team in Year 1 of the Jordan Love era, the Green Bay Packers will be traveling to Arlington, Texas, to face the Dallas Cowboys and their former head coach, Mike McCarthy. Our Packers vs. Cowboys prediction evaluates this matchup and identifies the key storylines to watch. Let’s dive into the Packers vs. Cowboys betting odds, and then my best bet for this NFC Wild Card matchup.
Packers vs. Cowboys Odds
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- Spread
Cowboys -7.5 - Moneyline
Packers +280, Cowboys -350 - Total
49.5
Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction
In a playoff matchup featuring a favorite of more than a touchdown, the biggest mismatch is the Cowboys’ offense playing at home against the Packers’ defense.
In the regular season, Dallas averaged 37.4 points per game at home, which was nearly six points better than the next closest team. QB Dak Prescott in particular, was sensational at home, throwing for 308.8 yards per game, 22 touchdowns, and just three interceptions, with a QB rating of 120.0.
In eight home games, he threw for over 400 more yards, eight more touchdowns, had half as many interceptions, and his yards per attempt was almost two yards higher than in nine road starts.
While this Cowboys offense is basically matchup-proof at home, they get a Packers defense that was one of the worst in the NFL during the regular season. Since Joe Barry has been their defensive coordinator, this has pretty much been the story every season in Green Bay.
Although they finished the season 17th in yards allowed, the advanced metrics are far worse for this Green Bay defense, as they were a bottom-five unit by DVOA and success rate.
MORE: Early NFL Wild Card Round Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
This is despite having a fairly easy schedule of opposing offenses. They only had two games against top-10 offenses by EPA/play when their starting QB was active (both against the Lions), and four of which that finished in the top half of the league.
While Love’s ascension in the second half of the season was a huge bright spot for the Packers, as he appears to be their franchise quarterback for the long term, I’m not sure if their offense can keep pace with the Cowboys in this matchup.
Although they were a top-three offense by EPA/play in the second half of the season, I just think they’re too young and inexperienced to be overly confident against a strong Dallas defense.
Outside of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, Green Bay’s weapons have zero playoff experience, and playing at Jerry World will certainly be a tough atmosphere. Plus, their best receiver, Christian Watson, missed five consecutive games to end the season with a hamstring injury. If Watson is unable to suit up, that will be a huge loss for this Packers offense.
When the Packers vs. Cowboys odds first came out, my initial read was to take Dallas as a seven-point home favorite. Now that the line has gone up, I don’t see as much value in taking them with the hook.
Instead, I’m going to trust that the Cowboys’ offense can carry over their success at home during the regular season into the playoffs against a shaky unit, and go over their team total of 28.5 points.
Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys over 28.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
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