The Dallas Cowboys are hosting the Green Bay Packers for Sunday’s second playoff game, and all regular season long, their offense was incredibly explosive at home, averaging over 37 points per game. With this matchup in Arlington, does that mean you should be targeting overs on player prop bets for Cowboys players? We break it all down in our top Packers vs. Cowboys player prop bets.
Top Packers vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets:
Aaron Jones Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: In the last three weeks, Aaron Jones has averaged just under 120 rushing yards per game, crossing the 100-yard mark on all three occasions. He has averaged 21 rushing attempts per contest as well, crossing that 20-carry number in all three games.
As if that wasn’t enough, now he gets to face a defense allowing an average of just under 120 yards per game in the last four weeks to opposing running backs in the Dallas Cowboys. Jones should dominate the backfield for the Packers, and 74.5 feels way too low of a line right now.
Jayden Reed Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: For the better part of the second half of the regular season, Jayden Reed has been the Packers’ WR1. In his final three games of the season, Reed’s lowest receiving yardage total was 52.
The Cowboys have a great defense. But Jordan Love is going to be able to complete passes. Where the Cowboys struggle the most is defending the slot. Reed runs 68% of his routes from the slot.
With the Cowboys installed as touchdown favorites, we can reasonably project negative game script for the Packers. Forty-nine yards is a low bar for Reed to cross.
Dak Prescott Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: The Cowboys’ offense has been a juggernaut at home, and Dak Prescott, in particular, has been impressive. In eight home games this season, in which they went 8-0 in, Prescott averaged 308.8 passing yards per game. Only three times he didn’t throw for at least 276 passing yards at home, and each of those three games was a blowout, with an average margin of victory of 25 points.
Although they’re giving a touchdown against Green Bay, I don’t anticipate this being a lopsided game. I think this should be competitive enough to the point where the Cowboys are still looking to attack through the passing game in the fourth quarter.
Dak Prescott Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Prescott has been nothing short of astounding this season with his arm, and that could well continue in this spot. The Packers’ defense ranks no outside of the top half of the league in …
- Yards per pass
- Yards per completion
- Completion percentage
- Percentage of yards gained through the air
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
Prescott could (and should) be just fine in this matchup, but I expect his success to come through the air, not on the ground. In Dallas’ past six wins, he’s picked up an average of 9.2 rushing yards per game and has thrown 17.3 passes for every rush attempt. In today’s NFL, many offenses are built around dual-threat quarterbacks – this isn’t one of them.
Green Bay has plenty of problems stopping the run (10th worst in yards per carry), a scab I expect Dallas to pick at with their traditional ground game. Betting props is about evaluating your number of outs, so it doesn’t hurt that we have the potential to get bailed out by the Cowboys going into victory formation late in this game!
Brandin Cooks Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Blewis: While CeeDee Lamb is the obvious choice of Cowboys wide receivers to have a big game, his receiving yards line is really high, so I’m going to go in another direction.
Brandin Cooks has been a huge beneficiary of Dak Prescott’s success at home this season, and he has gone over this yardage total in all but one home game — a 38-3 blowout win over the New England Patriots.
As long as this game isn’t a blowout, which I don’t expect it to be, I’m expecting Cooks to get enough opportunity to record at least 40 receiving yards.
Jake Ferguson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Over Green Bay’s past five games, they held DJ Moore, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, and Darius Slaton to a total of 288 receiving yards.
Over Green Bay’s past five games, secondary options in Cole Kmet, Jordan Addison, DJ Chark, Chris Godwin, and Wan’Dale Robinson have racked up 401 receiving yards.
That’s not to say that Lamb is destined to get shut down with Jaire Alexander back in the Packer secondary, but it is to say that we could see usage spread a little thinner than normal from this Dallas pass game.
While Brandin Cooks has been scoring touchdowns and earning fantasy football points, Jake Ferguson has seen at least six targets in six straight games and has proven himself to be the secondary target earner in this efficient offense. Pair that with the fact that the teams facing the Packers have a below-average aDOT, and the short passing game should be voluminous enough to cash Ferguson props.
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