The NFL regular season may be over, but that doesn’t mean fantasy football has to stop. There are a number of variations of playoff fantasy leagues. Today, we are going to focus on one-and-done formats with our top start ’em picks for Wild Card Weekend.
What Are One-and-Done Leagues?
Before we get to the picks, here is a very quick primer on one-and-done playoff fantasy football leagues.
Most leagues require a starting lineup similar to this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex. Each week, every manager in your league has the full player pool available to choose from.
But there’s a catch.
Once you use a player, you can’t use him again. That’s where the strategy comes in. You need to construct the highest-scoring lineup while making sure you still have options for subsequent rounds.
Below, you will find our recommended picks for the first round of the NFL playoffs. These are not going to simply be the best players at each position. Each player is carefully selected to maximize scoring potential throughout the entirety of the postseason.
Top Start ‘Em Picks For Wild Card Weekend
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (at TB)
The first round is simultaneously the easiest and the most difficult. We have plenty of options at every position, especially at quarterback. Plenty of managers will look to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts since they are the three best quarterbacks on the slate.
My pick, however, is Jayden Daniels.
The Washington Commanders/Tampa Bay Buccaneers game carries the highest total of the weekend at 50.5 points. When these teams last met, the Bucs won 37-20 — that’s 57 points scored.
Daniels finished his rookie season averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game and was the overall QB4. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
While this game could go either way, the Bucs are small home favorites and the more likely team to win. Hopefully, we get a big game out of Daniels in a losing effort, keeping Baker Mayfield on the board for future rounds.
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans (vs. LAC)
The first running back pick of the week is the easiest.
There is some concern that Joe Mixon continues his late-season struggles against a Los Angeles Chargers defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but he still averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game this season and was the overall RB6.
After playing just one drive in the regular-season finale, Mixon should be ready to go on Saturday. With next week no longer promised, he should see as much work as he can handle.
Mixon undoubtedly let managers down in the fantasy playoffs, but he also got us there. From Weeks 1-13, he scored at least 16.6 fantasy points in all but two games, one of which he left early due to injury (Week 2).
Despite being at home, the Houston Texans are underdogs. I also do think they will lose, which would make this the only time we get to use Mixon. If he duds, that obviously won’t be great, but hopefully, he can get us at least 15 points and not cost us any players we might want to use in future weeks.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (vs. MIN)
The showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings is the most difficult game to predict on Wild Card Weekend. If the Rams end up winning and we burn Kyren Williams, it is what it is. We’re never going to be perfect.
The Rams rested starters in Week 18, meaning Williams will be fresh for this game after averaging 17.0 fantasy ppg on the season. And while the Vikings have been a pass-funnel defense most of the year, their run defense kind of fell apart over the past month.
Minnesota surrendered 70 rushing yards on 19 carries to D’Andre Swift, 98 yards and two touchdowns to Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson, and then got completely eviscerated by Jahmyr Gibbs to the tune of 170 total yards and four touchdowns.
With Blake Corum out due to a broken arm, we may very well get close to 100% snap share for Williams. As long as he produces, I’m fine with using him now, even if the Rams end up winning.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (vs. MIN)
I guess I’m rooting for Minnesota in this one. When we have a close game like Rams vs. Vikings and a truly elite WR1 like Puka Nacua, we cannot risk never getting a chance to use him.
Nacua averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game this season, and it would’ve been 21.8 if you remove the two games he left early due to injury/throwing a punch.
Sean McVay is never one to mess around with player usage. He knows where his bread is buttered, and he funnels touches to his main guys. Nacua may see 15+ targets this week.
The Vikings allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this past year. The game environment and matchup are simply too good to pass up.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans (vs. LAC)
I am sufficiently convinced the Texans are losing this game. Thus, I am willing to double down on their two best offensive weapons.
Admittedly, it will be difficult for Mixon and Nico Collins to both have big games in a loss. However, the nature of this fantasy playoff format is we need to predict the outcome of games and make selections with conviction. If we hedge our bets and take competing players, we’ll end up running out of options down the line, and there will always be other teams out there who will not.
Collins averaged 17.8 fantasy ppg and the WR7 overall this season. The Chargers were right in the middle of the pack against wide receivers this season, and Collins is the clear alpha with virtually no target competition.
Let’s use him now and hope he posts big numbers in a loss.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (at BAL)
I’m not too keen on taking any Pittsburgh Steelers this week. Even though they are very likely to lose (which is a good thing), one of the most common pitfalls in this format of playoff fantasy football is overemphasizing saving the best players and overlooking the fact that you need to score as many points as possible. Even if you “burn” an elite player early, if you get his highest-scoring week, that’s not a bad thing.
Fortunately, we can go with a Pittsburgh player here, as tight end is a wasteland in the fantasy playoffs. Each of the top six tight ends by fantasy ppg played for a team that did not make the playoffs — the seventh was Travis Kelce, who has the week off.
Without any clear top option, Pat Freiermuth makes a ton of sense. With the Steelers heavy underdogs, taking Freiermuth is unlikely to cost you in subsequent rounds.
The Baltimore Ravens have been below average against tight ends, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Plus, over the final few weeks of the season, Freiermuth has been a pretty solid fantasy option, hitting double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five.
Flex Options
Formats vary. One of my leagues has no Flex and simply requires three WRs. Another has 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 Flex.
In an effort to appeal to as many of you as possible, I will offer a Flex option from each position.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers (at PHI)
I can’t say I love Jacobs’ matchup against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season. I also don’t love how much we’ve seen of Wilson and Chris Brooks in the past few weeks.
However, if you dig a bit deeper, you realize that Jacobs’ reduced role had more to do with game situation than a reduction in his usage. When the games were in doubt, his volume was perfectly fine.
The Eagles are very likely to win this game, which makes Jacobs a safe pick from the perspective that he won’t be available next week. The concern is if he doesn’t find the end zone, he may not score that many points.
In Week 1, Jacobs touched the ball 18 times against Philadelphia, yet he didn’t score and only managed 12.4 fantasy points, one of his lowest outings of the season. Nevertheless, if you can start a third RB, he’s an appealing option.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (at BUF)
I’m quite confident the Denver Broncos are not winning this game. I’m also confident they will be trailing early and, thus, throwing.
George Pickens is also a safe bet for a talented player that you won’t have available next week. But I don’t want to take two Steelers, and Pickens is far from a sure thing to produce.
That’s not to say Courtland Sutton is a lock, but he’s been phenomenal over the second half of the year.
Back in Week 7, Sutton amazingly didn’t see a single target against the New Orleans Saints. Since then, he’s hit double-digit fantasy points in every contest, averaging 17.6 fantasy points in that span.
The Buffalo Bills are not a favorable matchup, but they’re not a bad one either, ranking roughly in the middle in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. With Sutton almost certainly not available beyond this week, he’s a very appealing option.