This is a bit of a gamble since I do not have Jayden Daniels available. If the Commanders upset the Lions, I will be forced to take an AFC QB and run the risk of not having one available for the Super Bowl. If I go Jared Goff this week, that guarantees I’ll be able to use Jalen Hurts or Matthew Stafford next week. However, the goal isn’t just to have players available — it’s to score the most points. I’m severely capping my upside if I try and save all of Allen, Jackson, and Hurts for the Super Bowl. Plus, I run the risk of being able to use none of them. Against a Rams defense that allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, this is the spot to use Hurts.
I do think the Ravens win this game, which may make it strange that I’m burning Derrick Henry here. But consider the remaining potential matchups. The most likely outcomes if the Ravens win are Ravens at Chiefs and then Ravens vs. either the Eagles or Lions. None of those matchups are favorable for running backs. Now, to be fair, Henry is built different and may not care. But we need to try and maximize scoring. Henry against a run funnel Bills defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season is the time to use the king. Worst case, if the Ravens end up in the Super Bowl against not the Lions, we’ll have to go with Justice Hill. I can assure you other managers in your pool will end up with far worse options.
This is the tough part of these challenges — balancing scoring points now against saving players for later. I know I already said I think the Ravens win. However, if they don’t, I would like to have James Cook available for next week. This matchup is a tough one for Cook, making me fine with potentially missing out on using him entirely. I’m not sure he’s a far superior option to Austin Ekeler this week, and I’m far more confident in this being the end of the road for the Commanders. Game script should favor passing in this one, which means more Ekeler and less Brian Robinson Jr. This is easily my least confident choice, though. Feel free to swap to Cook if that makes you feel better.
If you used Terry McLaurin last week, you got a great performance from him. We probably won’t do much better than seven catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. But now we have him for this week. The Commanders are likely to lose this game. They are 8.5-point underdogs. The Lions are a pass funnel defense, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. We should see high volume from Jayden Daniels and McLaurin is his clear top target. Hopefully, we get a big performance in a losing effort.
The first time the Bills and Ravens met, it did not go well for Buffalo. They scored just 10 points in a 35-10 blowout loss. Things should be much closer this time around. Baltimore’s defense has been better over the second half of the season, but they still allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers Khalil Shakir is the clear WR1 on the Bills. He is Josh Allen’s safety blanket and top target. He managed a respectable 4-62 line in their first meeting, which, again was not competitive. In a game where the Bills should lean pass heavy, Shakir could be in line for significant volume. Even if the Bills win, I am comfortable using Shakir now.
Over his last four games, Kupp has failed to exceed 29 receiving yards. There’s a very real chance this is a complete wasted pick. The problem I find myself running into is what’s the alternative? The Rams are not drawing dead against the Eagles, but they are likely to lose the game. We need three WRs every week. I would prefer to not burn any Eagles or Lions yet. On the AFC side of things, there aren’t many strong options. Given the likelihood the Chiefs win and my gamble the Bills or Ravens take them out, I want to save Chiefs for next week. Where else do we turn? You could consider Rashod Bateman here, but I don’t like the negative correlation with Henry. It caps upside. That brings us, unfortunately, to having to roll the dice on the Rams going pass heavy against an Eagles defense that is good against the pass, but great against the run.
Going with three Commanders is not how I wanted to do things. Since we only need one tight end, there are a ton of options this week. You can really go in any direction and not be drawing dead in either of the next two rounds. The problem is figuring out the best one. How much do we like Travis Kelce against the Texans? He probably won’t be needed much. Plus, I’d love to use him against the Ravens next week. Dalton Kincaid is available, but I genuinely prefer Ertz. Mark Andrews is an option, but he had zero catches against the Bills in their first meeting. I do think going Dallas Goedert is a reasonable alternative. No matter what, you’re guaranteed to have Ertz or Sam LaPorta in the next round. Then you can go AFC TE in th Super Bowl. The reason I’m sticking with Ertz is I expect a lot more passing volume from the Commanders than the Eagles, and I’d like to be able to have Goedert on the table next week, saving LaPorta, hopefully, for the Super Bowl.
If you did not use Puka Nacua last week, he is a far superior option to Kupp.
If you still hav Kyren Williams available, I would use him now ahead of Ekeler.
