Muncie, Indiana, is the site of our Ohio vs. Ball State prediction as the Bobcats look to punch their ticket into the MAC Championship Game with a win and some help this week. Our final week of midweek MACtion picks and predictions takes center stage on Tuesday night.
Ohio vs. Ball State Betting Preview
- Spread
Ohio (-3.5) - Moneyline
Ohio (-195); Ball State (+165) - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN - Predicted weather at kickoff
37 degrees, snow showers, 2-3 mph winds - How to watch
fuboTV, ESPN 2
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Kurtis Rourke, Ohio ($11,200)
- QB John Paddock, Ball State ($7.500)
- RB Carson Steele, Ball State ($10,500)
- RB Sieh Bangura, Ohio ($9,400)
- RB Nolan McCormick, Ohio ($5,600)
- RB RB Jake Neatherton, Ohio ($5,200)
- RB RB Vaughn Pemberton, Ball State ($4,600)
- WR Sam Wiglusz, Ohio ($9,000)
- WR Jayshon Jackson, Ball State ($8,200)
- WR Miles Cross, Ohio ($7,500)
- WR Jacoby Jones, Ohio ($7,200)
- WR James Bostic, Ohio ($6,500)
- WR Yo’Heinz Tyler, Ball State ($5,700)
- WR Amir Abdur-Rahman, Ball State ($5,300)
- WR Tyler Walton, Ohio ($4,500)
- TE Brady Hunt, Ball State ($6,600)
- TE Tanner Koziol, Ball State ($5,600)
- TE Will Kacmarek, Ohio ($5,100)
- TE Tyler Foster, Ohio ($4,700)
The high-flying Ohio Bobcats can lock up the MAC East this week with a win and a Bowling Green loss. They’ll once again rely on their Canadian Sensation at quarterback, Kurtis Rourke.
Rourke has thrown for 24 touchdowns and is averaging over nine yards per attempt this season. Behind Rourke, the Bobcats are the top passing team in the conference and have the fewest interceptions to boot.
They fly high with Rourke’s decision-making and accuracy, while his dual-threat ability keeps linebackers and safeties at bay, allowing him to dot accurate passes into single coverage on the outside. Rourke should be your super flex and get the 1.5x points modifier on Tuesday, while his wide receivers are always great options.
Sam Wiglusz is the high-ticket player to grab and work to make afford with Rourke and Toledo QB Dequan Finn in your lineups.
Elsewhere, Ohio RB Sieh Bangura is a touchdown machine but may be too expensive to secure with other options around the night. He’s one game back from injury but blew up upon his return to the lineup in Week 11 with 145 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
If you go to the Ball State side of the field for DFS plays, avoid their tight ends, as Ohio has done a great job of limiting opposing tight ends this season. Instead, look for the favorable matchup that is Jayshon Jackson.
As Ball State targets their tight ends heavily, Jackson is freed up with single coverage. He averages 11 yards per reception and has just three touchdowns, but he’s leading the team by a mile in every other category.
Ohio has allowed more passing touchdowns than all but seven teams across the country. They’ll allow some in this game, and they should go to Jackson.
Ball State’s Carson Steele is always an enticing option, but Ohio’s defense has actually allowed the third-fewest touchdowns on the ground in the MAC, and five of their 15 allowed rushing touchdowns came within the first three games.
Prediction for Ohio vs. Ball State
If there’s one weakness on the Ohio Bobcats team this fall, it’s their passing defense. Ohio ranks last or next-to-last in the MAC in seemingly every major pass defense metric:
- Completions Allowed
232 (12th out of 12 teams in the MAC, 128th out of 131 FBS teams) - Yards Allowed
2,918 (12th, 130th) - Yards Allowed Per Game
316.2 (12th, 131st) - Yards Allowed Per Attempt
8.41 (11th, 119th) - Passing Touchdowns Allowed
24 (11th, 123rd)
Those figures also rank them at or near the bottom across the entire nation.
Fortunately, for the Bobcats, against Ball State, their abhorrent pass defense may not matter that much. For as bad as Ohio’s been at stopping the pass, Ball State has been equally as bad at passing the ball consistently this year.
Ball State ranks at the bottom of the MAC in yards per attempt and has thrown the third-most interceptions as a team this year. They’re a short-area, high-completion type offense that simplifies the game for their quarterbacks, wide receivers, and, subsequently, their offensive line.
However, in that simplification, the defense is allowed favorable situations to process everything that’s happening in front of them much faster and with room to spare. The offense also runs through their tight ends: Tanner Koziol and Brady Hunt.
Targeting the tight end duo frees up one-on-one matchups for Jayshon Jackson on the outside and Yo’Heinz Tyler over the middle of the field as safeties key on the bigger bodies. Ohio has done a great job his season at limiting the impact of tight ends against their defense.
Against opposing tight ends this year, Ohio has allowed the following:
- Week 1 vs. FAU: 0 targets, 0 receptions, 0 yards, 0 touchdowns
- Week 2 vs. Penn State: 4-3-56-1
- Week 3 vs. Iowa State: 9-7-92-1
- Week 4 vs. Fordham: 0-0-0-0
- Week 5 vs. Kent State: 3-2-16-0
- Week 6 vs. Akron: 11-8-81-0
- Week 7 vs. Western Michigan: 4-4-53-0
- Week 8 vs. Northern Illinois: 2-2-10-0
- Week 10 vs. Buffalo: 8-4-41-0
- Week 11 vs. Miami (OH): 3-3-28-0
The only two touchdowns they’ve allowed to tight ends this year came against their out-of-conference scheduling and against Power Five opponents Penn State and Iowa State.
Fortunately, for Bobcat fans, Ball State’s passing attack is not that of PSU or ISU. Ohio’s biggest weakness is not deciding factor in this one.
Instead, Kurtis Rourke and Co. should have a field day, and Ohio can clinch the MAC East with a win and some help this week.
Prediction: Ohio 35, Ball State 24