The Offensive Rookie of the Year race is starting to heat up as the first month of the 2022 NFL season came to a close this past week. We thought we knew what to expect as three receivers were dominating their opportunities, but new suitors have emerged. To help you sort it out, we’ve researched the best NFL betting options to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Want to place bets on one of these Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000. Bet here.
Best Offensive Rookie of the Year Risers Heading Into Week 5
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (+500)
There’s no question that Chris Olave’s chances of winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award took two blows in Week 5 despite logging his first career touchdown and another 67 yards. The downgrade at quarterback from Jameis Winston to Andy Dalton hasn’t been felt yet. Still, the move may end up being costly if Winston’s injury is extended. The other blow was out of Olave’s control, as Kenny Pickett earned the starting job in Pittsburgh.
It’s hard for receivers to win this award over decent rookie quarterbacks due to the nature of the position. But Olave sure has a strong early résumé, ranking eighth in the NFL in receiving yards despite an uncertain quarterback position and playing with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Even still, Olave looks like the best playmaker on the team through the first month.
Taking Olave to win the award isn’t a bad bet, but it’s not the sharpest play. There will likely be a stretch coming where he’s not favored, and he’ll have to make up ground unless he’s Justin Jefferson. The fact his targets went down from 13 in Week 2 and Week 3 to only seven with Dalton starting and without Thomas is a massive concern for how Dalton will run the offense in comparison to Winston.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans (+650)
The Texans are finally getting more production out of their stud rookie running back. Dameon Pierce has taken over the rushing share since the Week 1 debacle, where he played just 29 percent of snaps. He’s responded by setting new career highs in rushing yards each week.
His Week 4 explosion against the Los Angeles Chargers was his finest yet. Pierce showed impressive lateral movement ability on his 75-yard touchdown that came on a toss. In total, he finished with 100 of his 131 yards coming after contact. He broke six tackles.
Now ninth in the NFL in yards with 314, Pierce has arrived as the identity of this Texans offense. While this season has not been a good sign for Davis Mills’ future (seriously, he’s bad, and the Texans need to plan on replacing him this coming offseason), Pierce is the bell cow for this offense for the rest of his rookie contract. The efficiency and power he’s showing despite being in a bad situation will translate extremely well next to a better quarterback in the future.
Due to the continued opportunities Pierce will get, he’s a better value than any non-Pickett Offensive Rookie of the Year bet. Playing for arguably the worst team in the league is a threat, though.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (+700)
It’s great to see the Packers embracing Romeo Doubs’ flaws and mistakes and letting him work through them. He’s the best receiver on the roster and makes up for drops and fumbles by producing touchdowns. The Packers have rewarded him with 89 percent of the snaps in Week 3 and 96 percent of the snaps in Week 4 (and eight targets in each game).
Doubs’ response has been largely positive. He has 184 receiving yards and two touchdowns. While he’s nowhere near the production and volume Olave is getting, Doubs has the benefit of playing for an NFC favorite that has Aaron Rodgers. If Doubs can get near Olave’s receiving output, he will have a legitimate chance to win the award.
I think it’s a longer shot than the odds indicate, though.
I haven’t even included Drake London in this piece, but there are more explosive rookie receivers around Doubs. That’s not on Doubs but rather the opportunities his peers see. I’m fading Doubs’ odds, but there is an unlikely pathway to him winning the award.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (+800)
The Steelers tried to hold off from putting Kenny Pickett in as long as they could, but Mitch Trubisky proved to be the bad starter we all figured he was. Pickett entered and put up some nice stats, completing 10-of-13 for 120 yards and rushing for two touchdowns. He threw three interceptions, two of which came on late reads/bad accuracy throws and one on a Hail Mary.
Pickett looked like he did in college — solid at short throws and a skilled passer when rolling to his right. I love that he’s willing to test tight windows despite a mediocre arm, and this bodes well for the offense since they have receivers in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens who can win on contested catches. But he also showed his limitations reading defenses pre-snap and anticipating zone drops.
It’s way too early to panic about these issues, but upcoming games against Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Miami will be extremely difficult for Pickett to look good. Quarterbacks have such an advantage in this race, though. I would still wait to bet on Pickett because these next few weeks should lower his odds, if anything. Nonetheless, Pickett becoming the starter is a massive change in the race.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200)
I had mentioned last week that Pickens’ Rookie of the Year odds relied upon either Trubisky’s own improvement or Pickett moving into the starting job. Well, Pickett entered the game in Week 4 and immediately targeted Pickens four times, tying tight end Pat Freiermuth with the team lead for Pickett’s distribution. Pickens responded with six receptions for 102 yards.
There’s no doubt that Pickens looks the part of a dominant, No. 1-caliber receiver. He’s exquisite, but he has some production to make up for since his first three weeks were so quiet. Both Olave and London are well ahead of Pickens’ totals, but that can also change in a matter of weeks.