This whole Odell Beckham Jr. thing has been quite the dramatic saga. It always has been with him, back to his days of proposing to kicking nets on the New York Giants sidelines. After being released by the Cleveland Browns and clearing waivers on Tuesday, the wide receiver is a free agent for the first time in his career. For the first time, Beckham will get to decide where he wants to go. As a fantasy football manager, now would be a good time to consider trading Beckham away if you held onto him through this debacle.
Why trade Odell Beckham Jr. now?
As is always the case, trades are league-dependent. Some managers will want nothing to do with Beckham. To the point where he may have already been dropped in a good number of leagues. Others, however, could find themselves swept up in the promise of Beckham’s rookie season and a highlight-reel sideline catch on Sunday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys.
I will never forget Cris Collinsworth’s head practically exploding on live television. “Oh my goodness! This is sick. Put this to music,” he said. And he wasn’t wrong. It was (and still is) one of the greatest catches I’ve ever seen.
That catch was a part of a rookie season that saw Beckham stack together 1,305 receiving yards and 12 TDs on 91 receptions in only 12 games. A generational superstar was born.
If you can find that manager that has completely bought into the narrative that Beckham simply needs a fresh start away from Baker Mayfield to regain some of the promise he showed in his rookie campaign, then don’t hesitate to make the move. Yes, it’s possible Beckham lands somewhere and sees a rejuvenation of sorts. But capitalizing on hysteria and trying to get an overpay is never a bad move.
Beckham’s career has failed to live up to the hype
After his rookie season, it looked as though the young wide receiver was destined for greatness — like, gold jacket greatness. He followed up his stellar rookie year with greatness in Years 2 and 3, putting up over 1,300 yards and 10 TDs in both seasons.
That’s about as good as it got with Beckham.
Since 2016, Beckham has topped 1,000 receiving yards just once. His single-season high for TDs is 6. After finding pay dirt 35 times in his first three seasons, he’s scored 16 total touchdowns in the last five years, which have been hampered significantly by multiple injuries.
As a rookie, Beckham averaged 108.8 receiving yards per game. In his last mostly healthy season in 2019, he averaged 64.7. OBJ hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since Week 6 of 2019.
OBJ is no longer one of the best wide receivers
Is Beckham still capable of being a good WR at 29 years old? Absolutely. His 2019 season was still productive, catching 74 passes for 1,034 yards and 4 TDs. He was the WR31 on the year. That’s the type of player you’re potentially finding room for in your flex spot each week.
That type of production is fine. Yet, the thought of him being one of the best — if not the best — wide receivers in the game is long gone.
Odell Beckham Jr. to the Rams doesn’t change things
Now that he’s cleared waivers, Beckham has the opportunity to sign where he’d like, and it’s now being reported that he’s joining the Los Angeles Rams.
Here’s where the hype is coming from. Beckham apparently had narrowed his list of landing spots to the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and the New Orleans Saints. Bill Belichick also reportedly made a strong push to land Beckham in New England. The Rams, however, appeared as a late suitor for Beckham, and he decided to latch on with an NFC front-runner.
The thought of Beckham playing with Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers is what drove up the potential price for Beckham this morning, and now the idea of him with Stafford is doing the same. In a dynasty league, I just sold him for a 2022 second-rounder. Someone responded to me on Twitter that they got a 2023 first-round pick for him. The name values are enough to make it an interesting situation.
But here’s the thing. The hype made no sense with any potential landing spots this morning, and it still doesn’t make sense with the Rams. Beckham isn’t replacing the chemistry that Stafford has developed with Cooper Kupp, and the Rams also have Robert Woods.
Highly unlikely Beckham produces WR2 numbers
You tell me — how is Beckham going to find double-digit meaningful targets to be able to thrive as a fantasy-relevant wide receiver?
Even if you’re hoping that Beckham will be a WR2 for the remainder of the year, I have some numbers for you. I did the math. I know, it’s weird. Normally, I write words, but I’m capable of doing math when I need to.
I looked at the range of WR2s in a 12-team league and took the average of their stats so far this season. In 2021, WR13-24 have averaged: 8.5 targets, 5.6 receptions, 70.6 receiving yards, 12.7 yards per reception, and 0.49 touchdowns per game.
Robert Woods, currently the second-best WR on the Rams team, isn’t a WR2 in fantasy football. Unsurprisingly, he isn’t meeting those averages this year either. He’s averaging 7.7 targets, 5 receptions, 61.8 yards, 12.4 yards per reception, and 0.4.
Somehow, Beckham is supposed to do better than Woods in a Rams offense that now has more competition for targets? No, he will not.
If you believe Beckham is going to get you those numbers weekly with the Rams, then feel free to hold on and enjoy your league-winner. I, however, am out and will gladly sell on the hype.