As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Baltimore Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr.’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Odell Beckham Jr.’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Sometimes, it’s hard to remember how incredible OBJ was when he broke into the NFL as a 21-year-old on a team with only one other notable playmaker — for barely two games.
On this day in 2014, rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr made The Catch 🔥🤯
— Bovada (@BovadaOfficial) November 23, 2022
Back in 2014, the Giants’ backfield was among the league’s worst, led by Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams. At receiver, Hakeem Nicks had moved to Indianapolis in the offseason, leaving Eli Manning with the brilliant Victor Cruz, the rookie Beckham, Rueben Randle, and a patchwork of tertiary options.
Cruz was knocked out for the season — and eventually all of the following season — in Week 6. Beckham made his debut in Week 5, meaning he’d be thrust to the forefront of the offense sooner than expected.
He delivered like few others before him, or since. Beckham averaged 24.6 fantasy points per game in that first season. For context, future teammate Cooper Kupp set the standard by averaging 25.9 in 2021.
But the difference is that Kupp had been in the league for years. He was in his prime. Beckham was still trying to acclimate, compounded by a preseason injury that set back his development — or at least, was supposed to set back his development. No one could slow down OBJ. He led the league in yards per game as a rookie. He had arrived.
Although the raw numbers don’t show it, that first year for OBJ turned out to be his best, and it wasn’t even close. He caught 70% of his targets and has never exceeded 62.1% since. He still dominated in 2015 and 2016, but with slight declines in yards and touchdowns per game, despite a sustained target share.
Beckham’s gradual decline continued the next two campaigns — largely due to injuries that sidelined him for 12 games in 2017 and four more in 2018.
Despite being only 26 years old when the Browns acquired him, Beckham continued to struggle with the young Baker Mayfield. OBJ’s injuries piled up, his efficiency worsened, and the Browns finally gave up on their troubled former star, freeing him to sign with the Rams on their Super Bowl title run.
This is all a setup to what might be the most fascinating stat of Beckham’s career. In those 3.5 playoff appearances with L.A., including the Super Bowl (where he tore his ACL), OBJ rose to the occasion.
We didn’t see that level of play during the regular season. Candidly, we hadn’t seen it since 2016, or perhaps even 2014. On the biggest stage, Beckham was phenomenal, reeling in 80.8% of his 26 targets for 288 yards and two scores.
So the last we saw Beckham, the 29-year-old was lighting up defenses in inspiring throwback performances. Now he’s entering his age-31 campaign on a new team that happens to be one of the league’s most run-friendly.
Last year’s thin receiving corps has been bolstered and now includes all-world TE Mark Andrews and healthy WR Rashod Bateman, as well as rookie WR Zay Flowers.
Unless the Ravens’ offensive approach changes, it’s hard to envision Lamar Jackson feeding more than two of his “big four” receivers in any given game. As the oldest and most injury-prone of the four, OBJ brings the most fantasy risk, and it’s not even close.
This is a guy who’s accustomed to being the alpha. In L.A., he accepted the No. 2 role with an eye toward his first title. But in Baltimore, he’s not assured of anything more than sporadic usage. Flowers should overtake him on the depth chart sooner rather than later. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will play outsized roles on the ground, while Gus Edwards could net 150+ touches.
There’s not much left for Beckham, who’s proven year after year that he still has big-play ability but can also fade into the background. Perhaps a 45-600-5 receiving line is doable if he plays 15+ games. No doubt, he’s a solid insurance policy if injuries ravage this corps. But realistically, OBJ is headed toward the worst per-game campaign of his career.
Should You Draft Odell Beckham Jr. This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists OBJ with an ADP of WR52. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR54. On a per-game basis, perhaps Beckham can remain in the top 50, particularly if he nets at least six scores.
But drafting Beckham as a fringe fantasy starter is beyond risky for an aged receiver who hasn’t played in more than 18 months.
A new team, a serious injury, and diminished abilities altogether cap his ceiling at around the WR35-WR40 range — and that’s if everything breaks right, including Jackson throwing for 4,000+ yards.
OBJ’s name and legacy elevate his market value beyond where it should be. He’s the ultimate veteran flier — a guy who theoretically still has something in the tank, but who also could be entering his final NFL season, wrapping up a memorable career that’s been in decline for years.