We’re approaching the halfway point of the season, and we currently have seven teams with a greater than 90% chance of making the NFL playoffs, according to ESPN’s football power index: Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys.
With such a high probability of making the postseason, there is no value in any of these teams’ odds of making the NFL playoffs at this point. But which teams that have more favorable betting odds should you bet on to make the postseason?
Best Bets To Make the NFL Playoffs
The following are my favorite bets to make the NFL playoffs with odds of -110 or longer. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Houston Texans (+184 at FanDuel)
The Texans currently have a 34.7% chance of making the NFL playoffs, according to ESPN FPI, and the implied probability of +184 odds is equal to 35.2%, which makes this completely fair. But what FPI and their playoff odds might be underestimating is C.J. Stroud and their upcoming schedule.
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According to Tankathon, the Texans have the third-easiest schedule remaining. Their four toughest opponents for the second half of the season are the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns, and two of those three games are at home. Stroud, meanwhile, should only get better as the season goes on, especially with a healthier offensive line.
Minnesota Vikings (+145 at DraftKings)
The Vikings’ +145 odds to make the NFL playoffs imply a 40.8% chance. Meanwhile, if the sportsbooks were these setting lines based on FPI probability, it would be at -120.
So far this season, Minnesota has gotten incredibly unlucky and has looked far better than their record shows, a complete contrast from last season. After starting the season 1-4, the Vikings are on a two-game winning streak and have the ninth-easiest schedule for the rest of the season.
The Vikings are currently just half a game behind the Buccaneers for the final playoff spot, and we all expect Tampa to continue to fall off after overachieving to start the season. Their only legitimate competition, in my opinion, for the seventh seed is the Rams, who I also don’t mind as a playoff bet.
Best Bets To Miss the NFL Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers (-110 at DraftKings)
Their betting odds to make the playoffs are nearly identical to their FPI projection, but I’m not buying this Steelers team. Although they’re 4-2, they’re not as good as their record says they are, as they’re just 17th in DVOA and have a -24 point differential, worse than five teams below .500.
The Steelers have a relatively easy schedule for the rest of the season, with games against the Cardinals, Patriots, Packers, Titans, and Colts, but the gap between Pittsburgh and those teams certainly isn’t as big as their records might indicate.
This is really a fade of their offense, which has been one of the worst in the NFL this season — 31st in yards per game and 31st in success rate. As long as Matt Canada is the offensive coordinator, and all reports have indicated that his job is completely safe, I’m not expecting this unit to turn things around at any point this season.
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