Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins could be in for big fantasy weeks, as they look set to see increased opportunities and larger roles in Week 12. Indianapolis Colts rookie running back Jonathan Taylor landed on the reserve list on Saturday, ruling him out of the team’s game against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. But which Colts RB should you trust for fantasy football in his absence?
[sv slug=”mkftop”]Jonathan Taylor has struggled to live up to preseason hype
Fantasy managers who have invested in Jonathan Taylor have been a little disappointed with the performances of the Colts RB. Taylor was one of the most productive rushers in college football history during his time at Wisconsin. The Indianapolis Colts drafted him in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and there were high hopes for him behind Quenton Nelson and one of the most dominant offensive lines in the league.
When Marlon Mack tore his Achilles in Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, there were expectations that Taylor would become the team’s workhorse at RB. Taylor’s backfield competition came from Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines, two role players selected on the third day of the 2018 NFL Draft.
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Perhaps surprisingly, both Hines and Wilkins have exceeded all expectations and produced when called upon. While Taylor has still comfortably led the backfield in touches, he hasn’t shown the same efficiency and has been firmly entrenched in a committee with Hines and Wilkins.
Before the news of Taylor’s absence, it looked likely that the Colts would continue to rely on their three-headed RB situation. Taylor’s inactivity could allow Hines and Wilkins to prove themselves further and show that they’re deserving of bigger roles, even once Taylor returns.
Nyheim Hines has been a surprise fantasy starter
When Nyheim Hines scored two touchdowns in Week 1, it would have been easy to write it off as a fluke. Sometimes these performances happen in fantasy football. The fact that he caught eight passes was more difficult to ignore, though, and part of the reason that he found himself as one of the hottest names on the waiver wire heading into Week 2.
Although he hasn’t been the consistent option fantasy managers had hoped he would be, Hines has continued to impress since that point. Fantasy managers would ideally like to see him carry the ball more often. He’s had more games without a rushing attempt than he has had games with more than 10 rushing attempts. However, when he’s catching the ball as well as he is, there will always be a role for him.
Colts quarterback Philip Rivers views Nyheim Hines as a reliable target, and it’s been justified by him averaging 8.2 yards per reception. He’s been the RB17 in PPR scoring, and if he’s given more opportunities to run the ball, he could score fantasy points in all formats. Hines had his best game this season when the Colts defeated the Tennessee Titans 34-17 in Week 10. He rushed 12 times for 70 yards and a touchdown while also catching five of his six targets for 45 yards and another touchdown. His 28.5 points in PPR scoring were good enough for the Colts RB to finish the week as RB3, while he finished as RB4 in standard scoring with 23.5 points.
Jordan Wilkins could be the next man up on the depth chart
Jordan Wilkins could take over much of the early-down work as part of the Colts’ more streamlined running back corps. He’s been the tertiary option at the position this season but turned 21 touches into 113 total yards and a touchdown in Week 8 against the Detroit Lions. Fantasy managers will be hoping that he’s unchallenged on the goal line and boost his fantasy points with some rushing touchdowns.
The Titans have a middling run defense and will likely rely on their own rushing attack, providing the possibility that the two teams trade blows on the ground. If the Colts can get a lead and wish to slow the game down and run out the clock, Wilkins is the most likely to be counted upon.
Wilkins has the lower fantasy floor of the two Colts RBs but the most to gain based on his past workload. He’s unlikely to eat into Hines’ receiving work, and the team could look to Hines again to take the pressure off Rivers.
Should I start Nyheim Hines or Jordan Wilkins in Week 12?
Both Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins should see an increased workload with Colts RB Jonathan Taylor out of the lineup. The touches have been split fairly evenly between the two this season, with Hines having 87 to Wilkins’ 78.
In standard scoring leagues, Wilkins could benefit most as the more traditional running back. He has been the more productive runner in 2020, turning his 72 attempts into 271 rushing yards and one touchdown with 3.8 yards per attempt. On 51 attempts, Hines has rushed for 179 yards and two touchdowns at 3.5 yards per attempt. If the Colts are looking to replicate Taylor’s touches with his closest alternative, Wilkins should be the beneficiary.
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Hines has been neck-and-neck with Taylor as the top-scoring Colts RB in PPR leagues, though, despite only seeing 54% of Taylor’s 161 touches. Taylor has only 26 receptions through 10 games this season, making it unlikely that Hines will see a huge increase in his passing game involvement. Still, given how effective he’s been when targeted, it could certainly increase his production. Wilkins has been limited as a pass catcher throughout his time in the league, though, and any routes out of the backfield should continue to target Hines, making him an attractive PPR proposition.
Jonathan Taylor has been on the field for 43% of the Colts’ offensive snaps this season compared to 35% for Nyheim Hines and 21% for Jordan Wilkins. The numbers for the latter two players should move closer together in Week 12. The expectations are that it will be a close game, with the Colts favored by less than a field goal, which should mean a relatively neutral game script. If the Colts are attempting to run out the clock at any point, they’ll likely look to Wilkins, but if you’re expecting the Titans to be leading, Rivers will be looking for Hines to catch passes out of the backfield.
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Andy Gallagher is a writer for PFN covering Fantasy Football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @AndySGallagher on Twitter.