One of the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Indianapolis Colts RB Nyheim Hines projects to be a mid-round pick as his 2022 fantasy outlook rivals the top receiving RBs in the game. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Hines’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Nyheim Hines’ fantasy outlook for 2022
During the summer, when speaking about Hines, Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich said, “If I was going to be in a fantasy league, I think I would pick Nyheim this year.” I feel like my job has been done, and I don’t need to say too much else.
OK, let’s be serious for a second. After all, I think by now, we have learned we need to take a coach’s offseason comments with a little bit of a grain of salt. That doesn’t mean there’s no truth in this, though. After all, the Colts did sign Hines to a three-year, $18.65 million deal last season. Hines is coming off a down year across the board.
Playing in all 17 games, he rushed 56 times for 276 yards with two touchdowns on the ground. But that’s never been his game. His value is as a receiver. But even then, it was subpar for his standards. After seeing 76 targets in 2020, that dropped to 57 in 2021. Of those targets, Hines caught 40 passes for 310 yards with one score.
It was less to do about Hines and more about Carson Wentz, as he rarely checks the ball down to his running backs. It’s never been his style. However, it’s absolutely Matt Ryan’s style, who targeted his running backs more than any other QB last season.
Also, there have even been reports from the Colts that Hines could work out in the slot more, which we would all love to see as it adds more value. This is unquestionably Jonathan Taylor’s team. But if you were someone who was going Zero RB, especially in a PPR league, Hines is someone I want to target as much as I can.
How the Indianapolis Colts depth chart impacts Nyheim Hines’ fantasy projection for the season
As we all know, Hines will never be the star of this team, barring a catastrophic injury to Taylor. He’s the best running back in the game and was far and away the RB1 in fantasy last season. Taylor is set to dominate again as the first overall pick in 99.9% of drafts.
That said, Hines should see more than the 32% snap share and 11% workload he saw last season. He’s the clear No. 2 behind Taylor even though the Colts brought in Phillip Lindsay, CJ Verdell, and Max Borghi.
This is an offense we expect to be more explosive this year. And that’s not even a knock on Wentz. Despite his unceremonious exit via trade and comments by ownership, that was the best we had seen Wentz look since around 2017. Yet, we do expect an uptick in efficiency and volume with Ryan under center.
Michael Pittman Jr. projects to be the main beneficiary of this and has a low-end WR1. But after him, it is somewhat unproven, and this is where Hines can make his mark. His ADP value has been on the rise, but unlike some players, I think it is actually warranted.
Hines’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 135, Hines is coming off the boards as the RB44 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the middle of the 11th round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Hines is the RB43 and 107th overall player. I am slightly higher on Hines as he is the RB40 and 105th player overall in my rankings. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
Unquestionably, this is Taylor’s backfield, but it’s foolish to think he will see 100% of the opportunities. Hines will have a role, especially out of the backfield in the passing game. While he did post career-lows in this area last year, Ryan targets his RBs as much if not more than anyone else. Last year, he looked to his RBs a league-high 8.6 times per game, but it’s somewhat cheating when Cordarrelle Patterson is counted in this, but hey, it still translates.
In PPR formats, I like to find passing volume as targets are roughly 2.5x more valuable than a rush, especially once outside the top 10-15 RBs when the talent begins to drop off. Hines is in the same range as other pass-catching running backs like James Cook and J.D. McKissic. While not a starter for fantasy, Hines, as an RB4 in PPR formats, should have weeks where he will have relevance. But his ceiling will always be capped, barring an injury to Taylor.