How do you know it’s the most wonderful time of the year? Well, because we’re getting irrationally excited to watch two college football teams battle it out for their coach’s right to get covered head to toe in victory mayonnaise. Let’s take a look at the current odds for the 2021 Duke’s Mayo Bowl as well as a pick and prediction for North Carolina vs. South Carolina.
North Carolina vs. South Carolina betting odds and trends
- Spread: North Carolina -9 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Total: 58.5
- Moneyline: North Carolina -335, South Carolina +260
Is North Carolina the obvious pick?
Have you got some excess Christmas cash to splash on Sam Howell? Can South Carolina bolster your bank account this bowl season? If you’re looking to make a little money predicting the future, it’s worth considering the past before you lay down your hard-earned cash.
Despite both teams heading into the Duke’s Mayo Bowl with a 6-6 record, the Tar Heels are an overwhelming favorite in this North Carolina vs. South Carolina matchup. They’ve got the head-to-head record and this season’s betting trend of favorites winning 70.3% of their games in their favor. There are plenty of reasons to take the Tar Heels straight up, as we’ll get to shortly.
Betting against the spread is a less straightforward matter. Both teams are below .500 against the spread this season. North Carolina is 4-5 ATS when they’re the favorite. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 3-4 as the underdog. The defining factor may come from the fact that four of the Tar Heels’ six wins this season have come by more than the 9-point spread.
The total line of 58.5 is interesting. Every single game of North Carolina’s season has been higher than this, and they’ve hit the over in seven of those games. However, South Carolina has only been involved in two games that tallied over 59 points, and seven of their games have hit the under this year. North Carolina vs. South Carolina is unlikely to descend into a shootout, leading me to lean towards the under for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
North Carolina vs. South Carolina prediction
A bowl game between two 6-6 teams at 11:30 AM ET on a Thursday morning might not immediately set the pulse racing. However, throw in two teams battling for bragging rights in a state-line rivalry, a program record-setting quarterback potentially making his final appearance, and a big old vat of mayonnaise for the winning head coach, and North Carolina vs. South Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl becomes the perfect condiment for the football feast that is college bowl season.
Since South Carolina’s departure from the ACC in 1971, this rivalry has lost its regular appearance on the college football calendar. That’s probably for the best for the Gamecocks, who are on the wrong side of a 35-19-4 series record. They also lost the last clash between the two teams, a 24-20 defeat in 2019.
Although they’ve hit six wins for the first time since 2018, a win vs. North Carolina feels unlikely for South Carolina. They come into the game off the back of a 30-0 defeat to Clemson, and they’re missing their best player in Kingsley Enagbare. The versatile defensive lineman led the team in tackles for loss and sacks this season but has opted out of North Carolina vs. South Carolina to prepare for the 2022 NFL Draft.
The Gamecocks have been riddled by injury and inconsistency this season, particularly at the QB position. A remarkable nine different players have attempted a pass this season. Despite his injury, Luke Doty leads the team in yards, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. However, touchdown leader Jason Brown has left the program following the arrival of former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler.
North Carolina’s ground game is the key to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Somehow, South Carolina’s offense was worse this season than in the disastrous 2020 campaign that saw Will Muschamp’s tenure come to an end. Running back Kevin Harris couldn’t replicate his 2020 success, and although Zaquandre White has shown promise, the Gamecocks don’t really present a threat to North Carolina on the ground or through the air.
They’ve averaged just 21.3 points and 320.4 yards per game this season. The meager offense will be a relief for a North Carolina defense that, to put it kindly, has been porous again this year. They’ve allowed 31.6 points per game, giving up 408.1 yards per game. Despite Cam’Ron Kelly and Tony Grimes patrolling the secondary, it’s been easy to target the Tar Heels this season.
That puts the game firmly in the North Carolina offense’s hands. Although it’s not been a statistically stellar passing season for Howell, the Tar Heels have still averaged 36.4 points and 479.7 yards per game. Howell will want to put on a show in what could be the final game of his record-setting career on Chapel Hill.
Where North Carolina has been successful this season is on the ground. Howell has 11 rushing touchdowns and 825 rushing yards, and Ty Chandler heads to the NFL Draft after racking up 1,063 yards and 13 touchdowns following his transfer from Tennessee. With South Carolina giving up 178.9 yards per game on the ground, Chandler has the potential to be the Duke’s Mayo Bowl MVP in a win for the Tar Heels.
North Carolina vs. South Carolina Prediction: North Carolina 30, South Carolina 14