The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Noah Gray.
Is Noah Gray Playing in Week 18?
Gray is not listed on the injury report. Barring an unexpected setback, he will start in place of Travis Kelce in Week 18.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Noah Gray in Week 18?
Was a vintage Kelce Week 17 performance (8-84-1 in Pittsburgh) a sign of things to come? It’s certainly possible (it was just 12 months ago when he posted a 32-355-3 playoff stat line), but we will need to wait a little longer to see, as he won’t be playing this weekend with the No. 1 seed locked up.
Noah Gray enters the week ranked fourth among 34 tight ends (minimum 40 targets) in PPR points per target this season, behind only Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Tucker Kraft. He’s the next man up.
Even with Mahomes out as well, Gray is worthy of a look in weekly formats. Remember that Kelce went 8-64-1 in the Week 10 matchup against the Broncos.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Noah Gray’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 18
As of Sunday, Gray is projected to score 8.3 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 3.5 receptions for 37.6 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Broncos' Defense
The Denver Broncos continue to lead the way in the season-long rankings but have seen their lead narrowed after back-to-back clunkers against the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals.
Denver's grade in Week 17 was 69.6 (D+), its third-worst in a game all season. That's virtually identical to its grade the previous week vs. the Chargers (69.6), which technically ranks as their second-worst game due to rounding. The Broncos posted one D-level grade in their first 14 games but have now done so in back-to-back weeks, even with starting cornerback Riley Moss returning for Week 17.
The Broncos' extremely stingy pass defense has let them down the last two weeks, with a 38.9% pass defense success rate ranking last in the NFL over that span. Even with this horrendous fortnight, Denver still ranks fifth in pass defense success rate for the season.
A home matchup against the Carson Wentz-led Kansas City Chiefs should be a nice tonic for this unit ahead of another huge challenge against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs. Of course, if the defense performs at the same level as it has the last two weeks, that Bills playoff matchup may not happen at all.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Noah Gray’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:00 AM ET on Sunday, January 5. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Week 18 Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 18 TE PPR Rankings
1) Brock Bowers | LV (vs. LAC)
2) Sam LaPorta | DET (vs. MIN)
3) Trey McBride | ARI (vs. SF)
4) T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at DET)
5) Mark Andrews | BAL (vs. CLE)
6) Jonnu Smith | MIA (at NYJ)
7) Tucker Kraft | GB (vs. CHI)
8) George Kittle | SF (at ARI)
9) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN (vs. HOU)
10) Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs. CIN)
11) Zach Ertz | WAS (at DAL)
12) Kyle Pitts | ATL (vs. CAR)
13) Hunter Henry | NE (vs. BUF)
14) Will Dissly | LAC (at LV)
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs. CLE)
16) Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs. WAS)
17) Mike Gesicki | CIN (at PIT)
18) Juwan Johnson | NO (at TB)
19) Noah Gray | KC (at DEN)
20) Brenton Strange | JAX (at IND)
21) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at NE)
22) Dalton Schultz | HOU (at TEN)
23) Cole Kmet | CHI (at GB)
24) Tyler Conklin | NYJ (vs. MIA)
25) Austin Hooper | NE (vs. BUF)
26) Noah Fant | SEA (at LAR)
27) Foster Moreau | NO (at TB)
28) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. NYG)
29) Jordan Akins | CLE (at BAL)
30) Stone Smartt | LAC (at LV)
31) Daniel Bellinger | NYG (at PHI)
32) Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR (at ATL)
33) Payne Durham | TB (vs. NO)
34) Dawson Knox | BUF (at NE)
35) Michael Mayer | LV (vs. LAC)
Chiefs at Broncos Trends and Insights
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs now have multiple six-game win streaks this season, and five of the past seven teams to pull that off have won their conference at the very least (two Super Bowl champions).
QB: Patrick Mahomes has some lofty standards – he’s completing a career-high 65.7% of his red zone passes this season.
Offense: Kansas City has gone six straight games without a turnover (they had one turnover-free game through the first 11 weeks).
Defense: The Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on just two of seven red zone trips over their past three games.
Fantasy: Xavier Worthy averaged 2.5 catches per game through his first six this season and 3.0 over his next six. In his past four games: 5-6-7-8 catches.
Betting: Kansas City had a stretch last season where they went 0-3-1 ATS before finishing the regular season with a pair of covers and winning the Super Bowl. Earlier this season, they failed to cover seven straight, but now have covered three in a row as they get ready to chase a three-peat.
Denver Broncos
Team: Over the past decade, Denver is 0-8 against Kansas City in winter games (games played on or after December 1). They’ve been outscored 216-138 across those games (-9.8 PPG).
QB: Bo Nix has completed 15 of his 19 passes in the final two minutes of regulation this season (78.9%).
Offense: This offense was put in a tough spot against the Bengals on Saturday. Their 24.6-yard line average starting field position was their second-lowest mark of the season.
Defense: Saturday was just the third time this season in which a team picked up at least half of their third downs against Denver – the Broncos are 0-3 in those games.
Fantasy: After reaching 70 yards receiving in six straight games, Courtland Sutton hasn’t cleared 55 in three straight, but he’s bailed you out with a score in two of those games.
Betting: Denver is 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in their last 14 games played on extended rest.