One of the many wide receivers who should improve in the NFL and fantasy football, Houston Texans WR Nico Collins projects to be a late pick as he could struggle for consistency. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Collins’ fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
Nico Collins’ fantasy outlook for 2022
Outside of Brandin Cooks and Dameon Pierce, there are no safe fantasy options on the Texans. And even then, Cooks is in a different tier than Pierce. But someone else has to be involved, as they can’t touch the ball on every snap, right? The best bet to be a breakout for Houston is second-year WR Nico Collins.
That’s not to say he was impressive last year. He was the WR86 in PPR formats playing in 14 games, and he finished 97th in PPR/game scoring (6.0).
Yet, perhaps there is a silver lining. He closed the season with 30 targets in his final five games, catching 15 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but it was progress, and that is all we can ask for when he was also playing with a rookie QB, not Deshaun Watson.
Collins, like most rookies, likely just struggled to find his rhythm, and it took time to get his footing. After all, not every receiver can be Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase.
Still, Collins is no worse than the No. 2 target for a team likely to be trailing most of the time. At 6’4″ with blazing speed, Collins is worth a look as an under-the-radar player for fantasy football who could take a significant leap in 2022.
How the Texans’ depth chart impacts Nico Collins’ fantasy projection for the season
“We need Nico to be that compliment to Brandin, and he can. Big target, catch, go, and jump. That can be a good combination,” said head coach Lovie Smith.
That’s as big of an understatement as it gets. The Texans thought they had more depth after drafting John Metchie III. Sure, he would start slow as he recovered from a torn ACL he sustained in the SEC title match, but at some point, he’d be there. That is not an option now.
The Texans placed Metchie on the reserve/non-football illness list after he was diagnosed with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL), the most curable form of leukemia. All we can do is hope for a quick recovery so he can resume his football career.
It’s going to be the Cooks show in 2022. He is a top-20 receiver who somehow is constantly undervalued. He has over 1,000 receiving yards in five of the last six seasons while playing on four different teams. His 27.2% target share was the ninth most amongst receivers (133), recording 90 receptions for 1,035 yards with six touchdowns. Also, Cooks accounted for nearly 40% of the team’s total air yards. Nothing will change this year.
Barring injuries, I don’t see Chris Conley, Chris Moore, or Phillip Dorsett resembling a fantasy-viable option in 2022.
Nico Collins’ ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 216, Collins is coming off the board as the WR76 in PPR formats, placing him in around the 19th round in 12-team fantasy leagues. For context, Cooks is currently the WR20 with an ADP of 52.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, Collins is the WR61 as the 150th player overall. Cooks, on the other hand, is the WR19 as the 46th player overall. I am a bit higher on Collins, as he is the WR58 and 139th overall player in my rankings. Meanwhile, Cooks is currently my WR19 (42nd).
You have nothing to lose with Collins. The cost of investment is so low that any production is a bonus. I am more bullish on him, especially after the Metchie news, as it’s really just him and Cooks. Will he ever see a lineup? I have no idea. But is Collins worth a selection at his ADP? I think so.