Houston Texans WR Nico Collins went from fantasy football afterthought to WR1 in his breakout 2023 season.
With Collins tethered to C.J. Stroud for the foreseeable future, how highly should dynasty managers be valuing the talented receiver as we head toward the 2024 season?
Nico Collins’ Dynasty Outlook
A big part of being a successful dynasty manager is admitting when you were wrong. After two forgettable seasons to start his career, I dismissed Collins as nothing more than a rotational WR3/4 at the NFL level.
C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins hooking up early 👀#WeAreTexans
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 13, 2024
To be fair, Collins not only failed to reach 500 receiving yards as a rookie but fell short of that mark as a sophomore. Sure, he dealt with incredibly poor quarterback play on very bad offenses. But the odds were firmly against Collins ever becoming more than the aforementioned rotational WR3/4. Fewer than 10% of receivers with that rough of a start to their career end up mattering in fantasy — and certainly not at the level of Collins.
Obviously, Stroud had a lot to do with why Collins broke out in 2023. But the fact remains his breakout doesn’t happen if he isn’t good at football. I got it wrong.
There’s no sense in stubbornly holding onto preconceived notions. We saw the 2023 season. It’s time to adjust expectations as to what Collins can do.
Last year, Collins caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. He averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR7. He was one of the best values in 2023 redraft leagues.
Collins will have to compete with fellow receiver Tank Dell for targets going forward. But Stroud is more than capable of supporting not just two fantasy-relevant receivers but a WR1 and a WR2 with WR1 upside. Which one is which? I’m not sure it matters.
MORE: 2024 Dynasty Mock Draft
Collins was able to put together his fantastic 2023 campaign on just a 22.7% target share. That’s pretty low for a team’s WR1.
However, due to Stroud’s rapid ascent to the ranks of the elite, Collins was able to average 3.24 yards per route run, second in the league. His 11.9 yards per target was third. It was this level of efficiency that propelled him to a WR1 season.
Collins’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Collins sit in the dynasty WR landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Collins lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Marvin Harrison Jr. | FA
6) Puka Nacua | LAR
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Tyreek Hill | MIA
9) Malik Nabers | FA
10) Drake London | ATL
11) A.J. Brown | PHI
12) Chris Olave | NO
13) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
14) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
15) Rome Odunze | FA
16) Rashee Rice | KC
17) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
18) DJ Moore | CHI
19) DK Metcalf | SEA
20) DeVonta Smith | PHI
21) Tank Dell | HOU
22) Nico Collins | HOU
23) Tee Higgins | CIN
24) Zay Flowers | BAL
25) Jordan Addison | MIN
26) Brian Thomas Jr. | FA
27) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Jayden Reed | GB
30) Davante Adams | LV
31) Amari Cooper | CLE
32) Mike Evans | TB
33) Christian Kirk | JAX
34) Xavier Worthy | FA
35) Marquise Brown | KC
36) Diontae Johnson | CAR
Should You Trade Collins in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Collins? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
While Collins was a clear fantasy WR1 last season, I can’t quite get there in dynasty. If I had to bet, I would say we just saw Collins’ best season. With that said, fantasy managers don’t necessarily need to get rid of him. Collins can still post very useful seasons, even if they’re not quite as prolific as 2023.
Collins is still only 25 years old. Despite being a third-round pick who was unproductive his first two seasons, he’s got a great athletic profile. The fact that he wasn’t particularly great in college was a knock on his prospect profile. After three years in the NFL, it no longer matters. We should believe what we saw in 2023.
Collins probably needs quality QB play to thrive, but the same can be said about most wide receivers. If he remains in Houston, we know he’s got Stroud for the rest of what will likely be the prime years of his career. With that said, Collins is entering the final year of his rookie deal.
The Texans will undoubtedly look to extend him. Dynasty managers should prepare for the possibility that Collins will hit free agency next year. However, very few talented wide receivers ever hit the open market.
The 2024 free agent class was supposed to be a great one. But when it was all said and done, nearly every team signed, extended, or tagged their guys before they got a chance to hit the open market.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football — Optimal Setup, Rules, and More
If Collins gets an extension before the upcoming season, that would do wonders for his dynasty value. Knowing he’s locked into Houston on a long-term basis would be a beautiful thing. Imagine saying that a year ago.
Unless someone in your league is willing to pay dynasty WR1 value for Collins, your best course of action is to enjoy the production you’re about to get from a guy who, before last season, you likely didn’t plan on making an impact.
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