One of the most heartbreaking moments of the 2023 NFL season was when Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb clutched his leg and suffered a serious injury in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The All-Pro RB tore his ACL, which ended his season.
Now, all eyes are on Chubb, as fans are wondering when he’ll be back on the field.
Nick Chubb’s Recovery Timeline
Chubb started the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which caused him to miss the first weeks of the campaign. However, he returned to practice on Wednesday after the Browns opened his three-week practice window.
When a player is coming off the PUP list, the team designates a three-week window where the player can return to practice. Once he begins practicing, the team has until the end of the three-week window to place him on the 53-man roster. If the player cannot return to practice or resumes practicing but isn’t healthy enough to return to the active roster by the end of the three weeks, he must stay on the PUP list for the remainder of the season.
#Browns Nick Chubb in individual drills on 1st day back: pic.twitter.com/wNbsqWEokA
— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 2, 2024
“It felt good,” Chubb said after his first practice back. “I’ve been doing things on my own for a while now, so I’ve been used to everything I’ve done out there. It feels good.”
While this is great news and certainly a step in the right direction, it’s worth noting that NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport recently reported that Chubb won’t play in Week 5 when the Browns face the Washington Commanders. However, “he is set to return midseason as Chubb and the Browns had hoped.”
This lines up with what we heard from Browns insider Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, who reported that Chubb would likely miss the first half of the season.
“I think the hope was always that Chubb, on Physically Unable to Perform for at least the first four weeks, would be ready midway through the season, possibly by Week 8 against the Ravens, Week 9 against the Chargers, or perhaps after the bye in Week 10,” she said in September.
“Expectations were raised at The Greenbrier when he was sprinting and cutting so well, but the Browns pumped the brakes to give Chubb all the time he needs to recover from the second major left knee reconstruction of his career.”
Can Chubb return to his previous form? “I guess we’ll all find out at the same time,” he responded.
When asked when he’ll be ready to return, Chubb kept it simple: “Whenever I feel good.”
Chubb isn’t worried about getting reinjured. He said it’s not something he’s thinking about.
“Once you get out there and you’re running around, it’s like you’re 8 years old again,” he said. “It’s like riding a bike. That’s not something that’s in my head. You can’t control that. So, I’m going to go out there and play fast.”
The Browns are gradually easing Chubb back into action, which makes a lot of sense given the severity of his injury.
Examining Chubb’s Fantasy Value
Since Chubb isn’t returning until the middle of the season, it could be the fantasy playoffs before Chubb is even a usable option. One option here for fantasy managers, if they need help immediately, would be to trade Chubb to a contender now that there’s positive news about him returning to practice.
Similarly, if you’re off to a good start and looking for a stash to help you later in the season, Chubb is an intriguing target. This would be a good time to find out whether the manager holding Chubb is willing to sell low on what will feel like a failed experiment since he won’t be back in Week 5 (which they may have been counting on).
When healthy, Chubb has been a consistent fantasy force, averaging 15.9-17.3 fantasy points per game from 2019-2022. Even in limited action last season, he showed elite rushing ability with 6.1 yards per carry.
From 2020 to 2022, 42 running backs carried the rock at least 300 times. Chubb had as good of a case as any of them to be considered the top rusher over that stretch (minimum 300 carries) as he ranked:
- First in yards per carry (5.3)
- Second in rushing yards per game (89.6)
- Third in rushing touchdowns per game (0.7)
If Chubb can return to form and give you 15-17 fantasy points per game for even eight games, he’ll be a valuable fantasy asset.
However, here’s the pessimistic scenario: At nearly 29 years old, there’s a real chance Chubb won’t return to his former self. He might end up in a timeshare or could even reaggravate his injury, making him a risky stash.
While there’s a league-winning upside, the uncertainty around his recovery and return timeline makes Chubb a risky fantasy asset.