Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb has been the ultimate floor pick for half a decade now. With Kareem Hunt gone and Deshaun Watson hopefully resembling the guy we saw in Houston, could this be the year we get a true ceiling season from Chubb? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Nick Chubb’s Fantasy Outlook
I play fantasy football to win. I’m a true radical, I know. But in all seriousness, Chubb has spent most of his career not being a winning pick.
To be clear, Chubb is a fantastic runner. He’s one of the best pure runners in NFL history and probably the best pure running back in the NFL right now. He’s just not a winning fantasy pick. He’s a “not losing” fantasy pick.
I’ve never rostered Chubb in fantasy. Why? He’s always been overvalued. For those ready to jump through their computer and punch me in the face, please don’t conflate overrated with bad. Chubb was never bad. He was just valued as this elite RB1 when he truly never possessed anything remotely close to a top-five ceiling.
Since 2019, Chubb’s first year as Cleveland’s clear lead back, he’s averaged between 15.4 and 17.3 PPR fantasy points per game each season. He’s finished no higher than RB6 and no lower than RB10.
Of course, those are mostly RB1 numbers. Chubb’s been a fantasy RB1 for four straight years. The problem is that he typically costs a first-round pick with almost no shot at providing a top-five finish.
MORE: Where Does Nick Chubb Land in the 2023 RB Fantasy Rankings?
Chubb was the ultimate floor play. When drafting players in the first round, I want guys that can conceivably outperform expectations. At best, Chubb was a par-value pick.
The main issue with Chubb’s lack of ceiling was Kareem Hunt. Chubb completely lacked receiving upside. His 7.3% target share last season was actually his highest of the last three years. Without receiving work, it’s just not possible for Chubb to ever get above 18 ppg, and even that would include an outlier touchdown year.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Chubb at His ADP?
Chubb is 27 years old but has shown zero signs of decline. He was fourth in evaded tackles per touch last season and 18th in yards created per touch. And despite just a 57% snap share and 64.4% opportunity share, Chubb still managed to average 16.6 points per game.
This year, Hunt is gone. For what it’s worth, so is D’Ernest Johnson. Behind Chubb is sophomore fifth-rounder Jerome Ford, who touched the ball eight times last season, and RB/WR hybrid Demetric Felton.
I still think the Browns are going to pull Chubb off the field on obvious passing downs, but he projects to see the largest opportunity share of his career. That gives him a higher ceiling than he’s had at any point in his career.
On top of all that, Chubb’s RB5 ADP, No. 10 overall. The fantasy community has been propping up wide receivers, but Chubb still finds himself in the first round.
My projections have Chubb carrying the ball 309 times for 1,610 yards and 12.7 touchdowns. Through the air, I have him catching 22 balls for 187 yards and a touchdown. That comes out to 16.7 ppg and an RB12 finish.
If I was going purely based on projections, I would be out on Chubb. But I’ve projected him to see no increase in receiving work. If I undershot Chubb’s target share by even 2%, that would bump him up to nearly 17.5 ppg, which is my RB6’s projection.
Additionally, we know Chubb is capable of having an outlier touchdown season. Sure, Deshaun Watson’s mobility presents the threat of stealing touchdowns, but if Watson returns to his former self this season, the entire offense should be better, creating more scoring opportunities.
In 2020, Chubb’s best season, he scored 12 touchdowns in 12 games. Last season, on a Jacoby Brissett offense, he scored 13 in 17 games. A couple more receptions and even 2-3 more touchdowns would push Chubb to a career-high in points per game; 18-20 touchdowns are also firmly in his range of outcomes.
All of this is to say Chubb’s ceiling in 2023 is higher than it’s ever been. As a result, I’ve got him ranked all the way up at RB5. When I can get arguably the highest-floor fantasy RB with actual upside in the middle of the second round, that’s a button I’m very interested in pushing.