Some players simply have bad luck when it comes to devastating season-ending injuries throughout their playing career in this contact sport. Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb suffered the second catastrophic knee injury of his football career way back in Week 2 of the 2023 NFL season.
Does his torn left ACL at the age of 28 make him an incredibly risky dynasty asset heading into 2024? How should he be valued in fantasy football moving forward?
Nick Chubb’s Dynasty Outlook
Few running backs have produced the type of exceptional rushing numbers over the last five years than Chubb in a Browns uniform.
Entering the 2023 campaign, Chubb rushed for over 1,000 yards and eight rushing TDs in four straight years. Sure, his contributions in the passing game have always been a bit limited — catching 30+ passes in a season only once in his career — but his exceptional production as a ball carrier made him a top 13 fantasy RB in full-PPR formats for five consecutive campaigns.
Unfortunately, age and injury history are now both working against Chubb heading into his seventh NFL season. A significant amount of data since 2000 suggests the age cliff for running backs — even the great ones — is 28 years old. He will turn 29 later this year.
He is now coming off of his second devastating knee injury of his career and will be rehabbing in hopes of being ready for the 2024 season opener. If you recall, Chubb suffered a gruesome lower body injury during his collegiate days at Georgia, tearing the PCL and LCL in his left leg.
It certainly isn’t impossible to return from multiple significant injuries, but a torn ACL heading into year seven at 28 years old certainly doesn’t present a hyper-optimistic outlook on Chubb heading into next year.
Chubb’s Dynasty Ranking
Derek Tate’s Top 40 Dynasty RB Rankings
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Breece Hall | NYJ
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Kyren Williams | LAR
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) James Cook | BUF
12) De’Von Achane | MIA
13) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Tyjae Spears | TEN
17) Josh Jacobs | LV
18) Austin Ekeler | LAC
19) D’Andre Swift | PHI
20) Tony Pollard | DAL
21) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
22) Najee Harris | PIT
23) Jaylen Warren | PIT
24) Joe Mixon | CIN
25) David Montgomery | DET
26) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
27) Zamir White | LV
28) Nick Chubb | CLE
29) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
30) Derrick Henry | TEN
31) Kendre Miller | NO
32) Chase Brown | CIN
33) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
34) Roschon Johnson | CHI
35) Jerome Ford | CLE
36) Aaron Jones | GB
37) James Conner | ARI
38) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
39) Khalil Herbert | CHI
40) Ty Chandler | MIN
Should You Trade Chubb in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Chubb? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Chubb has been one of the most productive runners of the last five seasons. One could make an argument Chubb is in the conversation as the best pure ball carrier — meaning his combination of vision, strength, speed, elusiveness, and contact balance — in the NFL alongside Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry and San Francisco 49ers Christian McCaffrey.
Despite his exceptional career, Chubb is certainly a risky dynasty asset to invest in heading into 2024. A team aiming to rebuild who has Chubb on their roster may be willing to part ways with him at a discounted price to offload the risk he presents at the current moment.
If I’m a competitive roster in the market for a running back this offseason, inquiring about the price point to acquire Chubb is certainly worth a discussion, but I would not be willing to part ways with a late first to add him to my roster.
On the flip side, if I’m a Chubb shareholder looking to collect draft capital, I would certainly entertain parting ways with the risk associated with Chubb for an early second rookie pick in this draft.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Draft Strategies
Chubb is a great player, and I’m certainly not ready to write him off yet … but he does have some legitimate factors working against him producing a top-10 season at the RB position heading into 2024.
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