As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of RB Nick Chubb.
Nick Chubb’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
The RB5 on the season, Chubb was exactly what we expected from him. You can pencil him in for around 17 carries and 90 yards a game with about a 75% chance of finding the end zone. Outside of Derrick Henry, if you were to pick an RB to go over 100 yards in a matchup, it would be Chubb, as he is one of the best pure rushers in the game today.
In 2022, Chubb was fourth in the league in attempts with 302, rushing for 1,525 yards (third) and 12 touchdowns (tied-fifth). He was one of only six RBs to average over five yards per rush that carried the ball over 200 times, and he averaged 3.0 yards after contact/attempt with 27.4% of his carries generating a missed tackle and 15.5% going for 10 yards or more.
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While not a typical receiving back, Chubb did see 37 targets, his highest total since 2019 (49). He recorded 27 receptions and 239 yards with a TD in what was his best receiving season since the Browns brought in Kareem Hunt following the latter’s release from the Kansas City Chiefs. In PPR leagues, it did boost Chubb’s fantasy output, as he was eighth in points per game at 16.1.
From a consistency standpoint, Chubb is reliable as a low-end RB1, finishing as an RB1 in 47% of his games and as an RB2 or higher in 71% of his games in 2022. That held directly with his rolling three-year total of 47% in the top 12 and 68% in the top 24 at 16.5 PPR points per game (PPR/g) since 2020.
Even if the Browns do try to get Watson more attempts, the DNA of this offense runs through Chubb, and with Hunt heading for free agency, Chubb shouldn’t see a noticeable dip in opportunities.
Nick Chubb’s Fantasy Ranking
Entering his age-27 season, Chubb is closing in on the age apex but has shown no signs of slowing down, and I do not expect him to suddenly fall off a cliff. With that said, from a dynasty perspective, Chubb is likely better on a competing team before the dip in his production hits or the inevitable missed games happen, though we, of course, always hope for health for players. Chubb today vs. Chubb in two to three years could be a different player.
There is also the contract to keep in mind. Chubb does have two years left on his deal with the Browns. While there is a potential opt-out after the 2023 season, I’d be surprised if the Browns use it, even though he will carry a $16.2 million cap hit. However, this is the NFL, and things always happen that surprise you.
A reason I don’t see a move happening is that Hunt is a 2023 unrestricted free agent, meaning for the first time since his rookie year, Chubb is about to have an entire backfield to himself. For at least this season, Chubb’s upside is astronomical.
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Currently, Chubb comes in as the RB9 in PPR formats and the No. 24 overall player in 1QB leagues before any of the rookie running backs are added, which would only place Bijan Robinson and possibly Jahmyr Gibbs above him. In Superflex, Chubb is the No. 35 overall player, as quarterbacks see an increase in value due to positional scarcity.
If you have Chubb, 2023 could very well be his peak value. If you are going for a title, I would want him on my roster. While he might not have a 22+ point upside every week due to the lack of targets, from a consistency standpoint, few will be able to match Chubb, as his workload should be as reliable as it gets.
I do want to point out Week 18 as one final point for Chubb and what we could see. Chubb played a season-high 75% snap share, ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks, and caught five of six targets (22% target share) for 45 yards. If you tell me Chubb sees four to six targets and gets between 30 to 40 receiving yards a game, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he ended as the overall RB1.