When looking at the slate this week for fantasy football, there aren’t very many marquee matchups where you see the best in their respective positions battling it out. Normally we are looking at a WR/CB matchup or QB vs. QB, but in Week 13, we see two of the best fantasy running backs in the NFL face-off between Cleveland Browns’ Nick Chubb and Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry.
When looking at this matchup on Monkey Knife Fight, this presents a very interesting More or Less opportunity. But which of these running backs will end up on top? Note: You can get a 100% instant match bonus of up to $50 by signing up today and using promo code PFN. Click here to get started.
Derrick Henry and his punishing rushing style is incredible for fantasy
The rushing king of 2019 has been adorned with his crown once again as Derrick Henry’s bruising rushing style just can’t seem to be contained. There is the saying that Henry gets better as the game goes on and that in December, he takes over. I am not saying it isn’t totally true; I don’t believe that the phrase is being said correctly.
Henry “gets better” because teams are tired. He averages over a yard per rush more in the second half of games. In the fourth quarter alone, Henry average rush is 6.62 yards and 8.07 yards when in a neutral game script (+/- 8 points).
Related | RB Injury Report Week 13: Josh Jacobs, Dalvin Cook highlight Sunday’s injuries
We see a similar trend when breaking this down by month. In August and September, Henry averages 3.97 and 3.71 yards per carry in 2019. In November, that shot up to 7.45, and in December, it was 5.66 per rush. Defenses get worn out by the Titans, who average 64.3 plays per game (12th) but rush the ball on a league-high 32.5 plays per game.
Through 11 games, Henry already has racked up 1,257 yards on the ground along with 12 touchdowns. Numbers that are quite impressive, even when compared to a back like Nick Chubb.
If history is anything to go off of, he isn’t going to slow down either. In December, Derrick Henry has rushed 281 times in his 17 games for 1,511 yards (5.38 ypc) and scored 18 touchdowns. It is his highest month in usage, yards, average, touchdowns, and yards per game (88.9). In December, Derrick Henry averages 17.45 fantasy points per game.
If it weren’t for injuries, Nick Chubb would be battling Henry for the fantasy lead
Despite only playing in seven games this year, Nick Chubb has shown how incredible of a runner he is. Especially over the last three weeks since he made his return.
Over the last three games, Nick Chubb has rushed 58 times for 384 yards while scoring two touchdowns. He has three-straight games over 100 yards rushing, all while playing with one of the best RBs in the NFL.
Chubb averages league-high 4.43 yards after contact, or 72.7% of his yardage. No other running back with more than 60 carries has averaged more than 3.70 yards after contact. He also has an innate ability to break long runs even though the defense has all eyes on him. He ranks second in the NFL in 15-yard or longer rushes, just one behind Derrick Henry even though he has played in four fewer games.
In seven games, Nick Chubb has eclipsed 100 yards in five of his games and is the fantasy RB9 in PPR scoring with 16.7 ppg. The one knock against Chubb is he plays with Kareem Hunt. The primary receiving back and also see his share of carries in high-leverage areas.
However, all we care about is the rushing totals and decide if they will be More or Less than what Monkey Knife Fight has them listed as.
More or Less: Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb rushing totals for Week 13
Derrick Henry: More or Less than 98.5 yards
On Monkey Knife Fight, Derrick Henry is set at 98.5 rushing yards, and Nick Chubb comes in at 84.5 in the More or Less game. All we need to decide on is will either be more or less than the projected amount.
Derrick Henry, the fantasy RB1, basically needs to hit 100 yards to hit his number. Something I believe he can absolutely accomplish.
While the Browns come in as the 11th-best in fantasy points allowed to the RB (21.25), one of the big reasons is the lack of targets. Running backs have a 15.6% of targets share against the Browns, the fifth-lowest mark in football. They also have faced the fourth-fewest weighted opportunities. From an efficiency standpoint, they’ve allowed the 15th-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity.
There have been three running backs who’ve finished with more than 16 carries against Tennessee (James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, James Conner), and each ended with at least 100 yards. Derrick Henry will see all the volume he wants and will remain the fantasy RB1. Setting him up for a likely rushing title for the second-straight year. I believe it kicks off in Week 13, and I am taking Derrick Henry to have more than 98.5 rushing yards against the Cleveland Browns.
Nick Chubb: More or Less than 84.5 yards
Of the two matchups, Nick Chubb’s is more favorable for fantasy. The Titans rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, giving up 25.25 PPR points per game. The big question is going to be the split in the workload between him and Kareem Hunt.
Running backs have averaged only 26.5 touches per game against Tennessee. This isn’t great since Hunt has seen 43% of the touches since Chubb’s return to the lineup. However, they have both averaged a combined 35.7 touches per game. So even if Chubb sees 57%, that’s still 20 touches per game. Running backs have averaged 4.28 yards per carry against the Titans, which would put Chubb at 85.71 yards.
Remember how I talked about Henry being great in the fourth quarter? Chubb has been better this season. Nick Chubb is averaging 12.6 yards per carry in the 4th quarter thanks to his breakaway rushes. Nick Chubb has 124, 108, 126, 114, and 114 rushing yards in his last five complete games. I’m going more for Nick Chubb as well, but I will not be surprised if this is closer than expected.
Official Monkey Knife Fight play: Derrick Henry more than 98.5 rushing yards and Nick Chubb more than 84.5 rushing yards for a 3x prize.
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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering fantasy football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.