Last season, the Houston Texans made an improbable worst-to-first run, culminating with a Wild Card win over the Cleveland Browns. One year after finishing last in the AFC South, C.J. Stroud and the Texans advanced to the second round of the playoffs.
Which teams could make a similar leap forward in 2024? Let’s rank the NFL‘s worst-to-first contenders.
Which NFL Team Will Go Worst to First in 2024?
8) New England Patriots
AFC East Odds: +2500
Why Patriots can win division: Despite losing two of their best players (EDGE Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez) to injuries, the Patriots’ defense still finished eighth in EPA per play in 2023. New England will return almost every defensive starter, and while Bill and Steve Belichick are no longer around, first-year HC Jerod Mayo is an outstanding defensive schemer in his own right.
Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offense almost has to improve by default. New England ranked dead last in points per drive (1.10) last season but have removed play-caller Bill O’Brien and QB Mac Jones in favor of Alex Van Pelt and Jacoby Brissett/Drake Maye. If Brissett can keep the Pats’ offense on track, or Maye looks like a pro from Day 1, New England could surprise.
Why they can’t: The modern NFL is an offense-driven league, and the Patriots don’t have enough weapons. Drafting Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker while re-signing Kendrick Bourne was a start, but New England might be left with a set of WR2/3s, at best.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been an efficient playmaker over three years in the NFL and just received a new contract, however, the Patriots have offensive line question marks at left tackle and left guard.
Meanwhile, the AFC East will be one of the most competitive divisions in the league. The New York Jets made noticeable improvements over the offseason, while the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins didn’t regress enough for New England to make a serious run.
7) Arizona Cardinals
NFC West Odds: +1300
Why Cardinals can win division: Although Arizona finished just 4-13 in head coach Jonathan Gannon’s debut season, you can’t say they weren’t interesting.
Kyler Murray, who returned from a torn ACL at midseason, looked more comfortable in OC Drew Petzing’s offense as the season progressed and now has WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at his disposal. Veteran Jonah Williams and rookie Isaiah Adams could bolster the Cardinals’ front five, while rookie RB Trey Benson may share time with James Conner in the backfield.
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On defense, Arizona added volume-based depth along the defensive line and at cornerback, which were the club’s two primary roster concerns. Veterans like DT Bilal Nichols, DT Justin Jones, and CB Sean Murphy-Bunting should raise the Cards’ defensive floor, while early-round rookies such as EDGE Darius Robinson and CB Max Melton could help the ceiling.
Why they can’t: Arizona is still squarely behind the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. The 49ers and Rams are favored to repeat as playoff contenders in 2024, and the Seahawks still have more talent than the Cardinals.
While the Cardinals buoyed their roster this offseason, they still have work to do. Could a surprise Wild Card berth be on the horizon in 2024? Maybe — but it still feels like Arizona is a year away.
6) Carolina Panthers
NFC South Odds: +1100
Why Panthers can win division: Carolina is giving second-year QB Bryce Young every chance to succeed. First, the Panthers hired former Tampa Bay Buccaneers OC Dave Canales as head coach after he helped signal-callers like Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield resurrect their careers.
Carolina then drafted RB Jonathan Brooks, traded for WR Diontae Johnson, and paid up for free agent guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis — all in the name of surrounding Young with a workable talent base. The former No. 1 overall pick’s rookie season was an unmitigated disaster, but it’s too early to give up on Young.
Meanwhile, the Panthers play in the NFL’s weakest division and boast the league’s fifth-easiest schedule.
Why they can’t: The only problem? All four teams in the NFC South have top-seven-easiest schedules. This is a weak division, but the Panthers are squarely at the bottom. There is still a sizeable gap in roster strength between Carolina and the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the latter of which has won the NFC South three years running.
It’s all on Young’s shoulders now, and it’s fair to ask whether the 2021 Heisman winner can succeed in the NFL.
Last season, Young’s 33.4 QBR was second worst in the league, ahead of only Zach Wilson. He ranked dead last with 3.68 adjusted net yards (ANY/A) per attempt. Since 2000, only three first-round quarterbacks have posted worse Year 1 ANY/A marks. One was Matthew Stafford (2009), but the other two were Josh Rosen (2018) and David Carr (2002).
5) Washington Commanders
NFC East Odds: +800
Why Commanders can win division: If there’s a 2024 version of the 2023 Houston Texans — a dismal club from the year prior that makes a surprising run to the playoffs — it could be the new-look Commanders.
Washington concocted the NFC’s best offseason, revamping their offense with No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels while surrounding him with new veterans in RB Austin Ekeler, TE Zach Ertz, and offensive lineman Tyler Biadasz and Nick Allegretti. Can Kliff Kingsbury get the most out of Daniels in Year 1?
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Defensive improvement should be easier to attain, given that the Commanders ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every metric. Washington is starting fresh under Dan Quinn and added help at every level with EDGE Dorance Armstrong, DT Johnny Newton, LBs Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner, CB Mike Sainristil, and S Jeremy Chinn.
Why they can’t: The NFC East is too challenging. The Philadelphia Eagles collapsed in 2023 but hired new coordinators on both sides of their ball and appeared to have ameliorated their defensive issues. And while the Dallas Cowboys could take a step back after a quiet offseason, any club with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons will win games.
The Commanders are on the right path, but 2024 probably won’t end with a postseason berth.
4) Tennessee Titans
AFC South Odds: +1000
Why Titans can win division: Like the Panthers and Young, Tennessee wants to see what second-year QB Will Levis can do with improved infrastructure. Former Cincinnati Bengals OC Brian Callahan will implement a pass-heavy offense as Tennessee’s new head coach. Can Levis thrive under this coaching staff?
The Titans have surrounded the Kentucky product with weapons, signing WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd and RB Tony Pollard while adding left tackle JC Latham and center Lloyd Cushenberry to what had been the NFL’s worst offensive line. They didn’t stop on defense, adding CBs L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, and S Jamal Adams.
Why they can’t: These new additions should raise the Titans’ floor. However, there’s a chance Levis isn’t the club’s long-term answer. The second-round pick posted a 33.6 QBR in 2023, which would have ranked second worst in the league if he’d posted enough attempts to qualify. Levis’ 4.5% turnover-worthy play rate was third-worst, per PFF.
The AFC South is also a daunting division. Stroud and the Texans will be gunning for their second consecutive title after a busy offseason, while the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars have more talented rosters than the Titans.
3) Los Angeles Chargers
AFC West Odds: +320
Why Chargers can win division: Head coach and quarterback are the two most critical roles in an NFL hierarchy. In Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, the Chargers more than have those two bases covered.
Los Angeles has a solid offensive line that includes new right tackle Joe Alt and center Bradley Bozeman. Offensive play-caller Greg Roman has always been able to scheme a productive rushing attack and has familiar RBs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins at his disposal.
Why they can’t: The rest of the Chargers’ roster leaves much to be desired. Pro Football Network recently ranked every NFL roster while excluding QBs, and the Chargers finished 30th. Herbert has few weapons to work with after the offseason departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, while the Bolts have holes all over their defense.
And then there’s the issue of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Kansas City Chiefs, who — as you might have heard — have won three of the last five Super Bowls and eight consecutive AFC West crowns. Even if the Chargers can outlast the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders, the division’s big bad wolf is still in the way.
2) Chicago Bears
NFC North Odds: +265
Why Bears can win division: Chicago hasn’t made the postseason in four years and hasn’t posted a winning record since 2018. Still, Caleb Williams’ arrival — and the Bears’ late-season defensive turnaround in 2023 — could make Chicago a potential playoff team next year.
GM Ryan Poles acquired pass rusher Montez Sweat at last year’s trade deadline, and the Bears didn’t let up once the offseason officially started. Chicago traded for Chargers WR Keenan Allen and drafted WR Rome Odunze, pairing them with DJ Moore to form one of the NFL‘s best wideout tandems. Free agent RB D’Andre Swift is also on board, while Poles extended CB Jaylon Johnson and signed S Kevin Byard to fortify the Bears’ defense.
Why they can’t: Chicago wasn’t the only NFC North to improve over the 2024 offseason. The Detroit Lions solved their cornerback problem and fortified their offensive line. The Green Bay Packers fixed the spine of their defense and added RB Josh Jacobs. And while the Minnesota Vikings suffered numerous losses, they still have an above-average roster.
Since 2011, only nine full-time rookie starting quarterbacks have taken their respective teams to the playoffs. Stroud, Brock Purdy, and Mac Jones have done it over the past three seasons — can Williams follow in their footsteps in 2024?
1) Cincinnati Bengals
AFC North Odds: +145
Why Bengals can win division: Joe Burrow is healthy after suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11 of the 2023 campaign. Jake Browning is one of the NFL’s top backup QBs and performed well in Burrow’s stead. However, Cincinnati’s offense should get back on track with a full season of Burrow and WR Tee Higgins, who missed multiple games with injuries in 2023 but will return on the franchise tag.
Lou Anarumo’s defense gave up far too many explosive plays in 2023. Only the Detroit Lions (69) allowed more passing completions of 20+ yards than the Bengals (65) last season. It’s hard to imagine Cincinnati being so porous against opposing quarterbacks again next season after signing veteran safeties Geno Stone and Vonn Bell.
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Plus, the Bengals faced arguably the league’s most challenging schedule last year but will catch a break in 2024. PFN projects Cincinnati’s slate as the NFL’s fourth-easiest, while the Baltimore Ravens, Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers rank among the league’s 10 most difficult.
Why they can’t: The AFC North is stacked. In 2023, every team but the Bengals made the postseason, and even Cincinnati finished with a winning 9-8 record. While Baltimore could take a step back after losing key free agent pieces, and Cleveland could regress after posting an all-time defensive performance last season, the division will be anything but a cakewalk.
