The 2024 NFL regular season may be over, but your fantasy run is just beginning. With some of the best games on tap this weekend in the Wild Card round (my favorite weekend of the year), there are plenty of DFS leagues, One-and-Done leagues, and betting options for football fans to get involved with.
What games should you be looking to for offensive production, and most importantly – who should you be rostering for your DFS lineups this Sunday?
DFS Strategy: Stacking The Bucs
- QB: Baker Mayfield
- RB: Bucky Irving
- RB: Brian Robinson Jr.
- WR: Terry McLaurin
- WR: Jalen McMillan
- WR: DeVonta Smith
- TE: Dallas Goedert
- FLEX: Jayden Reed
- DST: Bills
Let’s be clear – these next three selections are not based on who I think will win the game outright, but more so based on expected game script. In fact, as a bettor, I think I’m favoring the dynamic play ability of rookie sensation Jayden Daniels to help the Commanders get the win on Sunday, however – it’s the Tampa Bay offense that I’m targeting most heavily for fantasy production.
If I were to bet this game (which I am), my favorite bet would be the over. Combined with favoring the Commanders, this puts Baker in the Bucs in a potential come-from-behind game script… and the Bucs are not afraid to put up points.
Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, which is his second such streak this season. I have him pencilled in to extend that streak in this spot against a Washington defense that can be had when they ramp up the aggression (24th in pressure rate when blitzing).
Mayfield lit the Commanders up for 289 yards and four scores through the air in Week 1, and he comes in at QB6 in our QB+ rankings, the official metric behind our Quarterback rankings. If Daniels is pushing the Bucs to score, the fantasy points could pile up for Mayfield.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket
The nice part about rostering Mayfield in DFS is that your roster construction pretty much takes care of itself. This is a condensed offense (Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are the only pass catchers that have my eye) and in going this direction, you get to leverage off of what figures to be a very chalky Bucky Irving.
Pencil in a bring-back option (if you think the Bucs will have to air it out, maybe you believe they are playing from behind and that could mean a more friendly game script for Brian Robinson) and you’ve got the foundation for a reasonable lineup with some price flexibility.
I compared Jalen McMillan to Amon-Ra St. Brown in this space last week and he went out and lived up to expectations with the NFC South on the line (5-74-1 against the Saints).
By no means am I victory-lapping. The kid has been great for a month now, and I didn’t exactly take the stance that he would become St. Brown so much as highlight his path of a similar trajectory, but he’s every bit ready to produce at a consistent level.
Speaking of consistency, McMillan has scored one touchdown or more in each of his last five games (seven total in that span). In that same span, the least amount of catches he has had is four, and the least amount of receiving yards is 5. For a price tag below $6,000 – McMillan fits the bill.
I mentioned him earlier, but although there might be some chalk here – Bucky Irving is as close to a lineup lock as possible.
If you extend his last seven healthy games over a 17-game schedule, we are talking about a running back with 1,700 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, and 493 receiving yards. That’s a stat line that only Edgerrin James (2000) and LaDaininian Tomlinson (2006) have ever achieved for a season.
Irving is taking the league by storm and is playing in the game with the highest total of the week. This season, the Commanders own the second-worst red-zone defense among teams still playing, struggles fueled by the lowest success rate against the run of this group.
Consider this: Washington allowed 49.6% more yards per RB carry before contact than the league average this season (only the Panthers were worse). Rachaad White is a name you know, but he’s not currently a threat to take much usage away from Irving. There’s nothing standing in the rookie’s way of continuing his run of dominance, something his price point doesn’t reflect ($1,200 cheaper than Derrick Henry on DraftKings).
His scrimmage yardage prop opened at 108.5 yards, and I’m not sure it’s nearly high enough. I’ve locked in an over on that number and, in a hedge of sorts, I bet he and Brian Robinson Jr. combine for over 134.5 rushing yards, thinking that the team playing with a lead has plenty of success on the ground.
Scary Terry: Wild Card Edition
Terry McLaurin caught 13 touchdown passes during the regular season, more than his previous two best seasons combined. He’s been nothing short of special. Among the 35 receivers with 100 targets this season, he led the way in production relative to expectation this season (+32.2%).
The bankable volume in the game with the highest projected point total should have McLaurin garnering as much ownership as anyone at the position. If you’re like me and believe Washington can pull off the minor upset, McLaurin will be a strong play in your lineup.
Bang For Your Buck With Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert returned from a knee injury that cost him four games last week, and Philadelphia made a point to get him involved early. Grant Calcaterra hasn’t reached 35 receiving yards since October, and his failure to provide value to the Eagles’ passing game has me optimistic that Goedert will assume a full-time role this weekend.
I’m not sure there’s much in the way of the ceiling when it comes to Goedert’s profile, but this is a potent offense with a multi-game projection — that’s enough to have my attention in this Sunday’s matchup.
With four catches for 55 yds in his first game back last week, I love Goedert to sneak his way to a nice comfortable floor.