After finishing 14-3 this season, the Minnesota Vikings earned the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs. After watching the third loss happen last week in Week 18, many of us are having a hard time ignoring some of the flaws that an injured Detroit defensive unit exposed in the Vikings’ offense, especially in their QB Sam Darnold.
However, despite these doubts the Vikings are still slightly favored on the road in this matchup. The Rams, led by head coach Sean McVay and veteran quarterback Matt Stafford are the higher-ranked team in the playoffs (won the NFC West), but they come into this game as 2.5-point underdogs at home.
These two teams met earlier this season and provided plenty of offensive production as the Rams beat the Vikings 30-20. With a lopsided salary pool and a one-game slate, who should you be looking at for DFS lineups tonight?
DFS Strategy: Go Big or Go Home
Captain: Kyren Williams
FLEX: Justin Jefferson
FLEX: Puka Nacua
FLEX: Will Reichard
FLEX: Demarcus Robinson
FLEX: Jalen Nailor
Boom or Bust: Kyren Williams, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua
As mentioned previously, tonight is just a one-game slate, which means roster construction for DFS contests becomes more difficult — as there are fewer player options to choose from.
Generally, I tend to lean toward a more balanced lineup construction style, but tonight I’m going the other way. I’m paying up for the three best players in the pool with the highest floors and ceilings — and then I’m punting on the rest.
Kyren Williams
Over the Rams’ current win streak, Williams is producing 11.2% above expectations. He’s a great player, but I’m encouraged because the offensive line is getting stronger at the perfect time (Williams is averaging 18.5% more yards per carry before contact over those games than he did previously).
Combine that with a role that ranks favorably for just about anyone (six missed games since last season and he still leads the league with 126 red-zone touches), and you could argue that Williams’ floor is the highest on the slate.
He might not be the sexiest play, but Williams has scored a TD in five of his last six games. When you pair this with the data above, I love Williams to get in the end zone on Monday night.
In Week 8, Williams had 23 carries and five receptions vs. this very same defense, which is a perfect example for the point I’m trying to make: Williams’ touch total gives him the best chance at a high floor, and his red-zone usage gives him the best chance at a high ceiling as well. That’s why he’ll be leading my team tonight in DFS tournaments.
Justin Jefferson
Look, I know Jefferson got shut down last week against the Lions. I get it. But I refuse to let recency bias sway the stats on this one.
Jefferson has posted a target rate north of 25% in four straight seasons. When a receiver has seen that sort of involvement against the Rams, he’s had a field day (20.4 PPR PPG).
We got an 8-115-0 stat line from Jefferson in Week 8 against these Rams, a game in which he earned a 39.1% target share. I have no concerns about his ability to get open in any matchup. The fact that we have visual confirmation of his ability to do so in this spot only confirms that.
Even in his worst performance of the season last week against the Lions, we saw Darnold staring down his favorite target in the end zone, throwing three straight balls in his vicinity. I love JJ’s odds to get back into the end zone this week vs. the Rams.
Puka Nacua
CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the only receivers with more yards and a higher catch rate than Puka Nacua over the past two seasons. He’s pretty clearly taken the league by storm and has essentially put to bed the idea that this is a split WR1 role — he’s the alpha in Los Angeles and everyone falls in line behind him.
Especially in their current four-game win streak, we’ve seen the Rams ramp up their desire to get him the ball. Be it a recent surge in rushing attempts or an aDOT that is down 14.9% from his historic rookie season, they are making it their weekly mission to funnel opportunities his way — exactly what I want for my DFS lineup.
The dip in the average depth of target is what has me most encouraged in this specific spot. We saw him haul in seven of nine targets for 106 yards against the blitz-happy Vikings back in Week 8. A similar level of success wouldn’t surprise me this week given how little time it takes for him to separate from coverage.
What If I Told You…
What if I told you, that in a one-game slate, there was a player with double-digit fantasy points per game average on the season… for only $5,000?
Enter Will Reichard. Ok, Ok, I know he’s a kicker, but if we’re spending up on our studs tonight, we need to find some bargains, and Reichard fits the bill.
In his last four games, Reichard has hit multiple FGs in each, and that’s with a 50+ yarder in all those games. He’s been perfect on extra points for the year (38/38), and we are confident in the Vikings’ ability to bounce back to some degree and put some points on the board this week.
Demarcus the Dart Throw
Keeping this one short. Again, I’m trying to find some lower-salaried options tonight so we can fit Williams, Jefferson, and Nacua into my lineups tonight, and this is the reason why I’m considering Demarcus Robinson.
Robinson missed Weeks 14-17 with an injury, but in his first game back last week, he put up 72 yards on three receptions. The Vikings’ defense, who loves to blitz, will already have their hands full with Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Robinson has shown enough speed and talent to hurt you if you lose track of him.