Here’s an early look at our NFL Week 9 predictions and picks for all 13 games, with the 49ers, Broncos, Browns, Cowboys, Giants, and Steelers on byes. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 9 Picks and Predictions
Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.
What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.
With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed, including two major questions surrounding each team’s execution of its offense.
Houston Texans (+13.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 3
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
The Eagles just defeated the Steelers by 22, while Houston mustered only 10 points against a barely middling Titans defense. So why isn’t this point spread 20+ points?
Well, of course, that’s now how things work. But yeah, this is a battle between two franchises going in opposite directions. Houston’s in Year 2 of what appears to be a four- or five-year rebuild, while the Eagles are angling for the Super Bowl. I don’t see how Houston keeps this one within 18 points.
Against-the-spread prediction: Eagles
Moneyline winner: Eagles
Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
A fascinating matchup between two possible playoff contenders. Among the 17 teams with a record of .500 or better, five have a negative point differential. The Falcons and Chargers are two of them.
This battle might come down to whichever team has the ball last. Anchored by Austin Ekeler on the ground and Keenan Allen through the air, Justin Herbert & company should have enough firepower to take this one.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chargers
Moneyline winner: Chargers
Chicago Bears (+4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This seems a bit like a trap game. Chicago’s assembled back-to-back impressive outings. Though they never had much of a chance in Dallas, their offense is moving in the right direction.
MORE: Tyreek Hill Is MVP of the Dolphins and Possibly the NFL
Of course, the same can be said for Miami. I like Justin Fields and the Bears keeping this close against a vulnerable Dolphins defense.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Dolphins
Cincinnati Bengals (8.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
This article was published before Cincinnati played on Monday Night Football, so the betting line remains in flux. Barring more serious injuries for the Bengals, who just lost Ja’Marr Chase for multiple weeks, I would anticipate this early-week point spread holding relatively firm.
D’Onta Foreman is the wild card, as he possesses an impressive three-down ability and objectively has looked far better in two games than Joe Mixon has looked all season. I could get behind picking the Bengals to win by 9+ or even 10+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals
Detroit Lions (+3.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
As I wrote last week, the Packers have leaned more heavily on Aaron Jones and their defense than ever before. Aaron Rodgers remains a franchise-caliber QB. But he lacks the receivers to elevate the passing game as he has in years past.
And so it might once again fall on Jones (and perhaps a little A.J. Dillion) to move the chains and keep the ball out of the Lions’ hands.
That’s because Detroit can score in droves. In their last meeting, the Lions posted 37 points — more than in any of their previous 16 meetings. Not surprisingly, they’re averaging 36 in four home games this season. At near full strength offensively, I believe Detroit will eke out the win.
Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Lions
New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
In a season like this one, I wouldn’t normally jump at the chance to pick the Patriots by a touchdown over the Colts. Indy’s running game and defense alone should be enough to keep this game close, while New England’s hit-or-miss defense cannot be trusted.
But I believe New England will capitalize on Sam Ehlinger’s inexperience in ways Washington’s more porous deference could not. A heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson, combined with a mixed-bag Colts defense with only one pick in their last three contests, should give New England a steady upper hand as it moves to 5-4 heading into their bye.
Against-the-spread prediction: Patriots
Moneyline winner: Patriots
New York Jets (+12.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
If the Jets don’t make the playoffs after starting 5-2, a strong case could be made that losing Breece Hall changed everything. The rookie RB was averaging a blistering 5.8 yards per carry and was fourth on the team in receiving yards. His season-ending injury created a hole that Michael Carter, the newly acquired James Robinson, and veteran Ty Johnson cannot fill.
In a different universe, New York and Hall would have beaten New England and then reassembled at home for a shot at vanquishing the Bills to claim a razor-thin lead in the AFC East. The Jets haven’t finished atop their division in 20 years. It would be a monumental feat in perhaps the league’s most competitive division.
Instead, I don’t see a scenario where Zach Wilson, a collection of mostly underutilized receivers, a merely “solid” backfield, and an up-and-coming defense diminish the Bills’ advantages at nearly every key position.
Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills
Washington Commanders (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Some point spreads don’t make sense to me. When that happens, I go for a run (often in my mind) to try to understand what I’m missing. But I still don’t understand why the Vikings are only three-point favorites.
Maybe it’s because Washington has the home-field advantage or because guys like Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, and Terry McLaurin have stepped up in the last two weeks.
But the Commanders are a frail 4-4 team. After starting 1-4, they beat the Bears in the final seconds. After conquering Green Bay, they needed last-second heroics to upend the Colts.
Beating Aaron Rodgers’ Packers? Certainly impressive, even in a down year for Green Bay. But defeating Chicago three weeks ago, and then Sam Ehlinger in his first NFL start with Indy . . . It should make us wonder how good Washington actually is.
I think they’re solid, and they’re also no match for the 6-1 Vikings. That’s not to say Minnesota hasn’t escaped with wins; all of their victories during their current five-game winning streak have come by eight points or less.
But I see a Vikings team that’s still getting better, anchored by a veteran core of offensive playmakers who’ve played together for years and possibly still acclimating to new head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system. Facing Washington’s sub-par defense, Minnesota should hit 30+ points and keep Washington under 24.
Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 1 p.m. ET
Two teams in free fall. The loser essentially will be out of postseason contention. The winner has a shot — a slim shot — to make a run.
On the one hand, I would expect a run-heavy battle between Travis Etienne Jr. and Josh Jacobs. But both defenses have been better against the run than against the pass. The problem, of course, is that Trevor Lawrence and Derek Carr have underwhelmed.
Carr’s thrown only three TD passes in his last four games while leaning heavily on Jacobs to help carry Vegas to a 2-2 record during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Jags have lost five straight, and Lawrence has oscillated between “future NFL star” and “2021 version of Trevor Lawrence.”
I’m excited about what the future holds. But I’m not excited about watching two talented teams (on paper) execute well below expectations. In the end, I’m giving Jacksonville the edge, leaving the Raiders wondering why middling opposing QBs keep looking like Pro Bowlers.
Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 4.05 p.m. ET
The 3-5 Cardinals vs. the 5-3 Seahawks. This will be a battle, and I don’t see Arizona losing. For all their flaws, four of their five losses have come against Seattle, Minnesota, Kansas City, and Philadelphia. Talk about a brutal schedule.
Impressively, they almost knocked off the Eagles and Vikings. But their loss to the Seahawks in Week 5 stings. They were simply outplayed, as Kyler Murray committed two turnovers while not finding the end zone. 100 rushing yards somehow wasn’t enough.
I’m expecting a bounce-back game for Murray. Despite losing Marquise Brown since last facing Seattle, the return of DeAndre Hopkins has evened things out, and the ascending Rondale Moore has (seemingly) established himself as a reliable No. 2 WR. The Cardinals will come out swinging, and I think they’ll win by 10+.
Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Imagine for a moment that the 3-5 Bucs and 3-4 Rams were better this year — like 6-2 and 4-3, respectively. When the season began, those would have seemed like realistic records heading into this Week 9 grudge match. The last two Super Bowl champs facing off for the first time since their Divisional Playoff game.
In this imaginary scenario, Tampa Bay might have won the three contests they narrowly lost against the 3-5 Packers, 2-6 Steelers, and 5-3 Ravens. Meanwhile, the Rams might have beaten the 6-2 Cowboys instead of committing two fourth-quarter turnovers inside the Dallas 30 to throw away a possible victory.
MORE: Christian McCaffrey Stars In 31-14 49ers Win Over the Rams
Other teams are in a better position to make the playoffs — or still have a remote lifeline — because the Bucs and Rams have underperformed. And now they meet not as recent Super Bowl champs but as franchises clinging to relevance.
The problem is that neither team looks much different than last year’s. But on both sides of the ball, they’re playing worse.
And that’s why this game’s outcome is so hard to predict. Which team will play at or near its potential? We’ve seen them at their “pretty good,” and we’ve seen them at their “pretty bad.” I’m going with the Bucs, in the belief that the Rams’ offense is more broken.
Against-the-spread prediction: Buccaneers
Moneyline winner: Buccaneers
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 6
- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Are the Titans one of the weakest 5-2 teams in recent NFL history? That might not be fair. But after starting the season 0-2, they’ve won close games against the Colts (twice), Commanders, Raiders, and Texans.
They’re now entering the much tougher part of their schedule. After facing deeply sub-par QBs, they’re going head-to-head with Patrick Mahomes and one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league.
The Titans assuredly will continue leaning on Derrick Henry, which might work only adequately against the Chiefs’ underrated run defense. Expect K.C. to dominate to the tune of 34-14 or something along those lines.
Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs
New Orleans Saints (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Monday, Nov. 7
- Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Has the Saints’ defense turned a corner? Shutting out the Raiders this past weekend was more impressive than it might seem. Heading into Week 8, Las Vegas was No. 3 in the league in points per game. New Orleans didn’t have Marshon Lattimore, but it didn’t matter.
So the big question I have is the one stated in the last paragraph. If the underperforming Saints’ D is back on track, then I like their chances against the erratic Ravens, which at times look like title contenders, and at other times look like an eventual 9-8 team.
Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints