Every week when I participate in the Pro Football Network Power Rankings, I have a hard time getting past the top 6-8 teams. There just aren’t many teams to trust these days. Add in the great equalizer — the point spread — and it becomes even harder to differentiate between the good and the bad.
The oddsmakers have started to adjust to the low scoring this season, with none of the 16 games (yes, no byes this week) having a total over 47. As we dive in and look at the NFL Week 8 odds, we isolate some of the best betting trends this season, look beyond the sides and totals, and attempt to find solid value in other plays. Let’s dive into my NFL Week 8 predictions.
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NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions: Best Bets
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -2.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars -152, Steelers +128 - Total
41.5
My instinct is to take the under, as five of the six Steelers games have failed to reach the 41.5 mark. The only one that did (a 26-22 win over the Browns) was due to two defensive touchdowns. My only issue is the Jags’ offense has been on fire since heading across the pond, scoring 23, 25, 37, and 31, respectively, since the London trip started.
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Instead, I’m going to isolate the Steelers’ offense, which has been barely above awful this season, ranking 31st in total yards and time of possession (TOP), 28th in rushing, 25th in passing, and 26th in points. The number is 20.5, which Pittsburgh’s offense has reached only twice this season, including last week when they needed two fourth-quarter TDs to get there.
Best Bet: Steelers team total under 20.5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Falcons -142, Titans +120 - Total
35.5
Six, seven, 21, 16, 16; Those are the totals the Falcons have scored in the last five weeks. Some of those were wins, but you get the point.
Arthur Smith gets his first matchup vs. his old team, but that won’t get the offense going. Only three teams have scored less, and you don’t want to be on a list with the Giants, Patriots, and Raiders.
The Titans aren’t much better, so I wanted to go with a game under and normally won’t shy away from a low total, but 35.5 is quite low. Back to isolating team totals, Tennessee is under the key number of 17, but Atlanta is 19.5. So we will go under the Falcons.
Best Bet: Falcons team total under 19.5 (-105)
New York Jets vs. New York Giants Odds
- Spread
Jets -3 - Moneyline
Jets -146, Giants +124 - Total
36.5
Not many people outside of the New York/New Jersey area are going to have much interest in the once every four years battle of MetLife Stadium, where both teams play. We should congratulate the Giants for their first first-half TD of the season last week.. not only one, but two TDs in the second quarter, raising their season average of points per game to 12.1.
But that’s it, just 14 points. Now they face a Jets defense that held Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts all in check. The Giants’ team total north of that key number of 17. They’ve gotten there once…. all in the second half vs. the horrible Cardinals.
Best Bet: Giants team total under 17.5
Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Ravens -8.5 - Moneyline
Ravens -420, Cardinals +330 - Total
44
This is a matchup of two teams headed in opposite directions. After teasing us all season, the Ravens have won three of the last four, most notably a blowout win over the Lions last week.
They carry the league’s best defense into a matchup with the fading Cardinals. After starting the season as a surprise upstart team and giving each opponent fits for a half (and beating the Cowboys), Arizona has not been very competitive the last two weeks in losses to the Rams and Seahawks.
With the Ravens being on the road, 8.5 is too much to lay vs. a Cardinals squad that tends to hang around. We are going to play Baltimore in a two-team, six-point teaser with Detroit, who play on Monday night.
Best Bet: Ravens (-2.5) in a two-team, six-point teaser with Lions (-2.5)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions Odds
- Spread
Lions -8.5 - Moneyline
Raiders +310, Lions -390 - Total
45.5
The Lions were dealt a reality check last week in Baltimore, falling flat after a 5-1 start to the season. If there was a get-right quick spot, this would be it — a home Monday night game vs. the struggling Raiders.
Detroit gets to host MNF for the first time since ???, and the crowd will be ready. As for Las Vegas, they may have been the most fraudulent 3-3 team we had seen in some time, not breaking 21 in any game and only beating three bad teams in the Packers, Patriots, and Broncos by a combined nine points.
They got a reality check of their own last week in a blowout loss to the Bears. I think the Lions win this one easily, so I’ll lay the 8.5 but also take them in a six-point teaser with the Ravens, both at -2.5, crossing through key numbers of 3 and 7.
Best Bet: Lions -8.5, Lions (-2.5) in the two-team, six-point teaser with Ravens (-2.5)
NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions: Other Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -8.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +330, Bills -420 - Total
42.5
The Bills are unquestionably this year’s “Jekyll and Hyde team.” They looked terrible in a Week 1 loss to the Jets without Aaron Rodgers, looked like the best team in the NFL in wins over the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins, then went to London and lost to the Jags, barely escaped the one-win Giants, and got run over by the one-win Patriots.
Which is the real Bills team? While I think Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and company have the talent to win the AFC every year, something is off about them, and it starts on the defensive side with injuries to Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones.
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If New England, who scored 30 combined in three previous games, can put up 25 vs. you, there’s a problem. The Bucs have their issues, somehow losing at home to the Falcons last week, coming on the heels of losing to the Lions the previous week.
Do I think they will win? No. Do I think 8.5 is way too many points? Absolutely, yes. Just not in a place where I can lay 8.5 with how Buffalo is playing.
Pick: Bucs +8.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders Odds
- Spread
Eagles -6.5 - Moneyline
Eagles -295, Commanders +240 - Total
43.5
I saw the Eagles in person last week, and there’s no doubt they are one of the top teams in the NFL and can repeat as NFC champs. But I also know they are not a team that blows teams out.
If a flag — any flag — went the other way vs. Miami, it could’ve been a much different game. And this is the same Eagles team that needed OT to beat Washington the first time, barely got by Minnesota and New England, and lost to the Jets.
Remember, Washington also beat Philadelphia last year, giving them their first loss of the season. I think the Eagles win, but I am taking seven on the other side, buying the half-point.
Pick: Commanders +7 (-120)
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Saints -110, Colts -106 - Total
43.5
I got burned to take unders in games involving these teams last week as the Saints got into a shootout on Thursday night with the red-hot Jags, and the Colts went back and forth vs. the Browns.
It was an abnormality for the Saints, the first game all season to go over the total. And I don’t expect the Colts to put up what they did last week. This number would’ve been in the high 30s if not for last week’s fireworks.
Pick: Under 43.5
Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers Odds
- Spread
Texans -3 - Moneyline
Texans -148, Panthers +126 - Total
43
A matchup that we thought would decide the top pick in next year’s draft is now one that has the 3-3 Texans thinking playoffs and laying three on the road at the winless Panthers. Laying here does not scare me as Houston is playing very good football under new coach DeMeco Ryans, and they sit one game out of the division lead.
The Panthers, meanwhile, haven’t shown me much, losing all six games and allowing a league-worst 31 points per game. The Texans’ success has us laying points on the road, but I’m okay with that in this matchup.
Pick: Texans -3
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -6.5 - Moneyline
Rams +225, Cowboys -275 - Total
45.5
I can see both these teams winning, and I can see both these teams letting me down. That’s the nature of what the Rams and Cowboys are this season.
Top to bottom, Dallas should be better, but they also lost to the same Cardinals team that L.A. had no issues with two weeks ago. The transitive property never works in the NFL, but it’s enough to keep me away. If I do anything, I would use Rams ML (+225) in a longshot underdog parlay.
Pick: Pass
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -9.5 - Moneyline
Patriots +370, Dolphins -480 - Total
47
Too many players on both teams’ injured lists to make a call this early. My instincts tell me that Miami’s offense will rebound after last week in Philly and get this game over the total of 47, but Bill Belichick and the Patriots slowed Miami down in Week 2, and we don’t know if Tyreek Hill or Raheem Mostert are playing.
Pick: Pass for now until more information on injuries.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
- Spread
Vikings -1.5 - Moneyline
Vikings -110, Packers -106 - Total
42.5
How many years did this matchup decide the NFC North? Now it’s a battle to stay out of the cellar with the Bears. There is absolutely nothing to like about what is going on in Green Bay right now, where the Packers have lost three straight and have losses to the Broncos, Falcons, and Raiders on their résumé.
The Vikings at least have won three of four, knocking off the 49ers on Monday night. I like what Kirk Cousins and his support staff have been able to do after losing Justin Jefferson, and will roll with the road team here. Winning at Lambeau has never been easy for Minnesota, so this isn’t a strong play, but they are the better team here.
Pick: Vikings -1.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -3 - Moneyline
Browns +138, Seahawks -164 - Total
40.5
The Seahawks are quietly 4-2 and only a half-game behind the Niners in the NFC West. The Browns are also 4-2, continuing to confuse people as to whether they are good or not, winning low-scoring games, winning high-scoring games, and not showing up for others.
With Deshaun Watson likely out again for the Browns, I don’t think this line has moved enough. Seattle -3 is implying a toss-up on a neutral field, and I don’t think these teams are even if Watson is out.
Pick: Seattle -3
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds
- Spread
49ers -3.5 - Moneyline
Bengals +198, 49ers -240 - Total
45.5
This is another game that is hard to judge without knowing the full scope of injuries, as 49ers QB Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol. At 5.5, I was willing to bet the Bengals, and I hope people got in on it there. Now at 3.5, that’s not enough to get me to take Cincinnati and get screwed if Purdy plays. It’s a wait-and-see for me.
Pick: Wait and see about Purdy’s injury
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -7.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs -400, Broncos +310 - Total
46.5
Conventional wisdom says the Chiefs are finally looking like the Chiefs and the Broncos stink, so lay the 7.5 on the road. As ESPN’s Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friends.”
The last four matchups between these two teams — including both last year with Nathaniel Hackett as Denver’s coach — have been decided by a combined 24 points. That includes two weeks ago in KC, where the 19-8 score was a lot closer than it looked.
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These AFC West foes play close games, and Denver is fresh off its most complete game of the season against the Packers. I still think KC wins and would not be surprised with a runaway, but the math is saying to not lay that hook.
Pick: Pass, but lean Broncos +7.5
Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Chargers -8.5 - Moneyline
Bears +350, Chargers -450 - Total
46.5
The “head coach should be fired after this loss” game does not interest me much. I would never lay 8.5 with the Chargers against anyone, and you can’t trust the Bears.
I lean over in this one since both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in points allowed and bottom four in the league in passing yards allowed. Justin Herbert is likely to have a good day, so keep an eye on his player-passing prop total once up.
Pick: Lean over 46.5, but mostly pass