Faced with numerous injuries and growing pressure, Week 6 of the NFL season asks a lot of questions for many teams. Who can separate themselves as a contender, and who might be on the brink of looking forward to 2024? Here are some NFL Week 6 predictions, picks against the spread, and more for the upcoming slate.
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What Are the Week 6 Odds and Betting Lines?
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -10.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +420, Chiefs -560 - Total
47.5
Would you believe me if I told you that the Denver Broncos are out-gaining the Kansas City Chiefs on a yards-per-play basis? The horrific Denver defense — ranked dead last in yards per play allowed — is probably helping the offense inflate this number by making them chase points each week. But I think that leads us to a clear betting angle in this game: expect points.
We know the Chiefs can and should score at will in this contest. But I expect Sean Payton, in desperation mode, to open up his playbook and chase the Chiefs’ point total with aggression. Given it’s a Thursday night primetime game, I’m passing on the spread but taking the over.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -3.5 - Moneyline
Ravens -198, Titans +166 - Total
40.5
The Baltimore Ravens have to be sick after somehow finding a way to lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens should really be 5-0 — an injury-riddled overtime loss to the Indianapolis Colts and a drop-fest to the Steelers have given them two losses.
The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest yards per play in the NFL through five weeks. I’m betting on this team to bounce back, play angrily, and put their frustrations out against a mediocre Tennessee Titans squad. The Titans have a knack for keeping games close, so I’m buying the Ravens down to three points or better. But I love the Baltimore side here.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Ravens -2.5 (-142)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns Prediction
- Spread
49ers -6.5 - Moneyline
49ers -300, Browns +245 - Total
37.5
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye, while the San Francisco 49ers face a long travel week coming off an emotionally charged Sunday Night Football win over the Dallas Cowboys. This feels like a great setup for the Browns to hand the Niners their first loss of the year, doesn’t it?
The Browns just haven’t shown me enough to think they can outlast this juggernaut of a 49ers squad for four quarters. So let’s turn to the total.
Any total under 40 should catch your attention, and this one certainly does. While the Browns rank league-best in yards per play allowed, they have faced some very friendly offenses. On the other side, the Cowboys’ putrid showing on Sunday Night Football might also be helping push this total down.
I like attacking this low total with a well-rested, potentially well-prepared Browns offense, along with the best offense in the league in San Francisco.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 37.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -2.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +118, Falcons -138 - Total
42
The Washington Commanders’ defense has been dreadful, ranking 29th in yards per play allowed, and gave up 40 points to the Chicago Bears at home.
While the Atlanta Falcons’ passing game might be a good bounce-back spot for this woeful Washington secondary, the Falcons still have a dynamic run game to worry about.
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Neither squad has enough of a legitimate, quality win for me to have conviction in taking either side. I will lean toward Arthur Smith’s rushing attack with Bijan Robinson to help keep the Falcons undefeated at home.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Falcons ML (-138)
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Dolphins -13.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +610, Dolphins -900 - Total
48.5
As a Carolina Panthers fan, I don’t even want to think about this one.
Carolina just gave up 42 points to the Detroit Lions, who were playing without their best wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, or their talented rookie running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. Things won’t get easier for the Panthers — 28th in yards per rush allowed — facing the league’s best rushing offense.
I don’t even think Mike McDaniel and the Miami offense were happy with their Week 5 offensive performance, even though they covered the spread against the New York Giants in a 15-point win. The Dolphins can’t help but cover this one as well, even without De’Von Achane.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Dolphins -13.5 (-115)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears Prediction
- Spread
Vikings -2.5 - Moneyline
Vikings -146, Bears +124 - Total
44.5
The Chicago Bears showed they can be an explosive team with offensive upside. However, it came against an atrocious performance from the Commanders, who struggled mightily in the secondary and couldn’t take advantage of a banged-up, poor Bears pass defense.
Kirk Cousins, even without Justin Jefferson, will be able to move the ball against the Bears, especially if Jaylon Johnson, Eddie Jackson, and Jaquan Brisker remain out. This line would have likely been close to a touchdown for the Minnesota Vikings before last Thursday. I’m keeping my eye on the injury report, but I strongly lean Vikings laying the points.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Vikings -2.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
- Spread
Jaguars -4 - Moneyline
Colts +176, Jaguars -210 - Total
46.5
This matchup screams Jacksonville Jaguars let-down spot, and so far, the betting market agrees. This line has already moved down 1.5 points in the Indianapolis Colts’ favor, despite the majority of the bets being placed on Jacksonville.
After two long weeks in London, the Jaguars have to turn around and play a tough divisional matchup against the Colts. And unlike the Buffalo Bills, the Colts (eighth in yards per rush) will actually be able to run the ball, especially with Jonathan Taylor back in the mix. Gardner Minshew already won his first road start in Baltimore — he can lead the Colts to another win over a tired opponent.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Colts +4 (-110), Colts ML (+176), Colts teaser leg +10
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans Prediction
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Saints -124, Texans +106 - Total
42.5
Despite last week’s loss, C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans have greatly exceeded expectations and only appear to be improving — and getting healthier. Laremy Tunsil returned last week, and now Tytus Howard has been activated to potentially start up front.
The Falcons dominated the Texans in time of possession last week — Houston only held possession for 24:28, barely over a quarter and a half of the game. Despite that, the Texans still put up 19 points on the road, including an impressive late fourth-quarter drive to take the lead.
The New Orleans Saints’ defense has performed but has hardly been tested. The best offense they have faced is that of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to whom they allowed 26 points at home. In a dome environment returning home after a tough loss, I like the Houston offense to surpass their team total of 20.5 points.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Houston team total O20.5 (-112)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -2.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks +126, Bengals -148 - Total
45
Are the Cincinnati Bengals turning a corner, or did Ja’Marr Chase and a weak Arizona Cardinals defense cover up ongoing issues with this team?
There are too many question marks to pick a side in this one. The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a bye but have to travel east for a 1 p.m. ET start while we still can’t be sure Joe Burrow is fully healthy. I’m passing on taking either team here.
At first glance, this total seems low at just 45 with two high-ceiling passing offenses. We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather, but I like the potential for both offenses to be aggressive, especially if Burrow is back to full health.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Over 45 (-115)
New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction
- Spread
Raiders -3.5 - Moneyline
Patriots +142, Raiders -168 - Total
41.5
Things can’t get much worse for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. Perhaps facing his former offensive coordinator and a sub-par offense can get them back on track.
Belichick thrives when facing familiar opponents. Despite the past two weeks, I expect him to be a step ahead of Josh McDaniels and make things difficult for the Las Vegas Raiders’ 25th-ranked offense (in yards per play). If Belichick can’t get it done this week, some tough conversations might be had in New England.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 41.5 (-110)
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions -168, Buccaneers +142 - Total
43.5
If there’s a time to get the Lions, it’s a non-primetime road game. The Lions went 3-4 with a -48 point differential in such contests last season. They are, of course, a much-improved team this year, but I like this spot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are coming off a bye.
The Lions could be without two starting corners: Emmanuel Moseley (out for the season) and Brian Branch. The Detroit passing defense has been completely untested over the past three weeks, facing the Panthers, Green Bay Packers, and Falcons. A fresh Tampa Bay team at home can take advantage.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Buccaneers ML (+142)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams Prediction
- Spread
Rams -6.5 - Moneyline
Cardinals +220, Rams -270 - Total
46.5
The Los Angeles Rams offense started red hot with Cooper Kupp back in the mix, but they fell flat in the second half by not being able to sustain a run game against a tough Philadelphia Eagles rush defense.
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That changes with the Arizona Cardinals. Although the Cards have been scrappy, their defense is far from Philly’s caliber. I like this spot for Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford at home against a divisional opponent, but I respect the Cardinals enough to not lay almost a full touchdown. Add the Rams to your parlays and teasers.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Rams ML (-270), Rams -0.5 teaser leg
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Jets Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -6.5 - Moneyline
Eagles -300, Jets +245 - Total
42
The Eagles are 5-0 but have only won one game by double digits, and they haven’t exactly faced much quality competition. Coming home with some momentum, the New York Jets defense can slow down D’Andre Swift in the run game up front, and Sauce Gardner can keep A.J. Brown, who has feasted off weak defenses, in check.
On the other hand, Zach Wilson will have to face one of the toughest defenses in football. While I prefer the Jets and the points, it’s hard to be too confident.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Jets +6.5 (-105)
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
- Spread
Bills -14 - Moneyline
Giants +610, Bills -900 - Total
44.5
Despite exiting last week’s game with a neck injury, the early signs point to Daniel Jones playing on Sunday night. But given that there’s still some uncertainty, and given how large of a point spread this is, I’ll pass for the time being.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction
- Spread
Cowboys -2.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys -126, Chargers +108 - Total
50.5
The Dallas Cowboys got embarrassed on Sunday Night Football, but that has pretty much happened to every team facing the 49ers this season. Against a far worse Los Angeles Chargers defense, this could be a bounce-back spot for Dallas offensively.
Meanwhile, on the other side, if there’s any offensive coordinator who should know how to attack the Cowboys’ defense, it’s Kellen Moore, and it will be his first game coaching against his former team.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Over 50.5 (-110 at DraftKings)