Jameis Winston: 31.14
Jameis Winston threw 5 interceptions on Sunday. You don’t need me to tell you that those statistics are not very good. However, just as excellent conventional statistics don’t necessarily equate to a high OSM grade, poor statistics don’t always lead to a low one. Often the two values will correlate, but there are exceptions. Winston’s performance against the Carolina Panthers provides an excellent example of this phenomenon.
Despite his many turnovers, Winston received an OSM grade of 31.14 in Week 6. That is just slightly lower than his season average, implying that he didn’t actually play that much worse than usual. Looking at his Next Gen Stats, there were a couple of factors that really boosted his grade this week. He averaged 8.6 air yards per completion, and 12.1 air yards per attempt, both of which were second in the NFL. He was also one of the more aggressive quarterbacks, throwing the ball into tight windows on 22% of his pass attempts. It’s pretty easy to see how that combination could go wrong. But clearly, it wasn’t due to a lack of effort on Winston’s part.
Even in an undeniably catastrophic performance, Winston remained largely responsible for his own production. Unlike other quarterbacks, Winston doesn’t often throw check-down passes, allowing his skill position players to pick up yards after the catch. Instead, his tendency to play aggressively, throwing the ball deep downfield and against tight coverage, naturally leads to his personal success having a huge effect on the game. When his gambles are successful, the Buccaneer’s offense looks unstoppable. But when they aren’t, you get games like this one. He’s like a (very) poor man’s Brett Favre. If head coach Bruce Arians could reel in his more self-destructive tendencies just a little, Winston could be a great quarterback. Unfortunately, so far, he has been unable to do so.