Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season will see 16 games that have playoff implications spread across Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday. Of the 32 teams taking the field, 24 remain in the race for the playoffs, with eight having been eliminated mathematically entering the week.
Ahead of a loaded week of action, here are my NFL Week 17 predictions based on the current odds and betting lines available.
NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
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New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Predictions
- Spread
Browns -7 - Moneyline
Jets +270, Browns -340 - Total
34.5
Often in a game like this, where one team has playoff implications and the other doesn’t, you lean towards the team with more on the line. That is going to be the case here with the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns, especially after the way the Jets capitulated last week.
I do not love laying a full touchdown with the Browns because there is a part of me that will refuse to trust Joe Flacco completely. I do not foresee an upset in this one, and the total is low enough to where I can see teasing the Browns down to -1 and the total down to 28.5 and taking the over.
Pick: Browns -1 and over 28.5 total points six-point teaser
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys Predictions
- Spread
Cowboys -6 - Moneyline
Lions +215, Cowboys -260 - Total
53.5
The Dallas Cowboys are back at home, so we can lock them in to win right? The Cowboys are perfect at home and have covered six of their seven games at home. I expect the Detroit Lions to be able to move the ball, but I expect the Cowboys to be equally comfortable on offense.
This could easily be a game that could top 60 or 70 points. I prefer the total to taking the Cowboys laying nearly a touchdown in what could be a shootout.
A secondary bet I am watching is a six-point teaser taking the Cowboys down to the ML and then bringing the total down to 47.5 and taking the over.
Pick: Over 53.5 points
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions
- Spread
Bills -12 - Moneyline
Patriots +500, Bills -700 - Total
40.5
The New England Patriots are going to be a major exception to picking against the eliminated team this week. New England has shown itself to be one team that is playing for pride, and they are likely not going to just roll over to a division rival.
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For that reason, I cannot see laying 12, and even laying six feels risky with the way the Patriots have played fringe playoff teams the last two weeks.
Pick: Pass
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants Predictions
- Spread
Rams -5.5 - Moneyline
Rams -240, Giants +200 - Total
43.5
The New York Giants fought with everything they had against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but a lot of that was about the Eagles getting in their way and nervous energy in that stadium. There should be no such concern for the Rams, who I fully expect to be in the mood for blowing away the Giants as they hunt down a playoff spot.
Pick: Rams -5.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Predictions
- Spread
Texans -4.5 - Moneyline
Titans +175, Texans -210 - Total
42.5
The Houston Texans look like they will get C.J. Stroud back this week, but given the inconsistency we have seen, it is hard to trust them. The Tennessee Titans will hope to have Will Levis back, but I am not sure whether that helps or not.
The under is probably the play here, but these Texans games have a habit of going off the rails at times, and this could well be one of those sneaky exciting games.
Pick: Pass
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions
- Spread
Buccaneers -3 - Moneyline
Saints +130, Buccaneers -150 - Total
41.5
The battle for the NFC South is well and truly alive, and the last two weeks of the season could yet see more twists and turns. For that to happen, the Saints need to win, or the division crown heads to Tampa Bay.
This is going to be a kitchen-sink game for the Saints, but the way the Buccaneers have been playing, that might not be enough. Then again, do you want to be laying three points with Baker Mayfield in a crunch game?
Pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles Predictions
- Spread
Eagles -10.5 - Moneyline
Cardinals +450, Eagles -600 - Total
46.5
Did the Eagles finally right the ship last week, or did they just luck into a win against a bad team that couldn’t get out of its way? The Arizona Cardinals are going to test that week with a combination of James Conner running hard and Kyler Murray trying to shred the Eagles’ susceptible secondary.
The Cardinals have not quit on the season, but I still think the Eagles have too much for them in this one.
Saying that there is no way I want to lay over 10 points with this current Eagles team playing the way it is. This is another teaser opportunity taking the spread down to 4.5 and the total to right around 40.
Pick: Eagles -4.5 and Over 40.5 total points six-point teaser
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Predictions
- Spread
Bears -3 - Moneyline
Falcons +140, Bears -165 - Total
37.5
The Atlanta Falcons kept their season alive in impressive fashion last week, but their away record is pretty woeful. A Week 7 win over the Buccaneers and a Week 13 win over a Tim Boyle-led Jets are their only road successes this year. Their last three road losses have at least been close games, but a 2-5 record away from their dome is concerning.
It feels odd to say this, but give me a Chicago Bears group that seems to have figured things out a little lately.
The under also very much feels in play in this one. The Bears have scored more than 20 points once since Week 8, and the Falcons are certainly no guarantee to get that high. If you have another six-point teaser candidate who needs a partner, then taking this total up to 43.5 and grabbing the under feels like a smart play.
Pick: Bears -3
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions
- Spread
Ravens -3.5 - Moneyline
Dolphins +160, Ravens -190 - Total
46.5
The Baltimore Ravens were extremely impressive on Monday, and there is no time for a let-down game with the AFC’s No. 1 seed on the line. The shorter rest is not ideal, but we are only talking about a day, and the Miami Dolphins had a far more intense game on Sunday than the Ravens ended up having on Monday.
The Dolphins away from home have been fallible this year, with a 4-3 record, compared to 7-1 at home. When you look at their road losses, they are to the Bills, Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs. That is three good teams who can slow down the Dolphins’ offense and take advantage of their defensive faults. Give me the Ravens getting 3.5.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Predictions
- Spread
49ers -13 - Moneyline
49ers -800, Commanders +550 - Total
49.5
The last thing the Washington Commanders wanted this week was an angry San Francisco 49ers team coming into town. Unfortunately, that is what they have, and this one could get ugly very quickly. The Commanders’ defense is woeful, and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with ease. This is a huge get-right game for the 49ers, and this time, Jacoby Brissett will not be a surprise to the opposing defense.
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I never like to lay more than 10 points, so the way I am going to attack this one is another six-point teaser. Bring the line down 49ers -7 and pair it with either another game or, at a push, the total going over at 43.5.
Pick: 49ers -7 as part of a six-point teaser
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions
- Spread
Colts -3.5 - Moneyline
Raiders +150, Colts -175 - Total
43.5
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone into do-or-die mode, and it is a lot of fun to watch. Their defense stifled Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Therefore, they should be capable of doing that to the Colts. Indianapolis’ last win against a legitimate good team came back in Week 3 when they beat the Ravens.
I hate trusting the seemingly always flaky Raiders, but the Colts are nothing for Las Vegas to be scared of. Give me the Raiders getting more than a field goal, or if you are looking for another teaser candidate, take that total up to +9.5.
Pick: Raiders +3.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Predictions
- Spread
Jaguars -6.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +240, Jaguars -300 - Total
37.5
At this stage, who knows what to make of Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars? The Carolina Panthers are fighting hard down the stretch, and that should not end here. Since their bye week, only three of the Panthers’ games have been decided by more than seven points. With Lawrence less than 100% that could easily be the case this week.
I do not want to trust Bryce Young and this Panthers’ team but they have fought hard for four of the last five weeks. The Jaguars are not a good team right now, so taking the 6.5 with that Panthers could be the option.
Alternatively, tease the total up to Panthers +12.5 and combine it with the 49ers -7 or the Raiders +9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks Predictions
- Spread
Seahawks -3.5 - Moneyline
Steelers +155, Seahawks -185 - Total
41.5
Last week, Mason Rudolph made me look very stupid, or at least the Cincinnati Bengals allowed Rudolph to make me look stupid. I am not sold Rudolph can go on the road and put together the same level of performance in back-to-back weeks.
The Seahawks are putting together a tough run right now, and with their crowd at their back and Geno Smith fully healthy, this should be their game.
Pick: Seahawks -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Predictions
- Spread
Broncos -3 - Moneyline
Chargers +180, Broncos -230 - Total
39.5
The news that Jarrett Stidham will start in this game tells me all I need to know about the Broncos’ attitude to Week 17. The Broncos made a “business decision” to sit Russell Wilson, and for all intents and purposes, it feels like they have quit on the season. That news moved the line 2.5 points toward the Chargers, and it doesn’t feel like enough.
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There is no way I am taking the Chargers, even after their flurry of excitement last week.
Then again, you will not convince me to bet on Stidham here unless the Chargers end up favored before kickoff.
Pick: Pass
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
- Spread
Chiefs -7 - Moneyline
Bengals +270, Chiefs -340 - Total
44.5
That might have been the single ugliest game the Chiefs have played under the Andy Reid regime on Christmas Day. The only stat you need to know is that they lost a game where the opposing starting QB did not complete a pass in the final three quarters. Yeah, you read that right — Aidan O’Connell was 0 for 10 in the final three quarters, and the Chiefs still lost.
The question is whether the Bengals can play mistake-free football after four turnovers in the last two weeks and seven in the last five. If they can, then their defense should be able to cause the Chiefs some issues. I like the Bengals getting the points because right now, they seem like the better all-around team. Picking against Mahomes and Reid feels wrong, but this Chiefs team is in crisis after four losses in six weeks.
Pick: Bengals +7
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Predictions
- Spread
Vikings -2 - Moneyline
Packers +110, Vikings -130 - Total
46.5
This game between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings has shootout written all over it. The two teams played in games last week that combined for over 110 points, with defense seemingly optional. The Vikings have now scored 48 points in two games since their 3-0 debacle in Las Vegas but have allowed 57 points in the two losses.
The Packers have not scored less than 20 points since Week 10 and have only allowed fewer than 20 points once in that stretch. This game has 27-24 or 30-27 written all over. I am just not sure who is on which side of the result.
Pick: Over 46.5 total points
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