There is nothing better than knowing your entire day (and weekend) will be spent eating turkey and watching football. Everyone’s favorite Feast Week is here, so why not read up on some betting advice to enjoy the games even more?! We even have a bonus Black Friday game at MetLife this year.
Every team has played at least nine games, as we are firmly into the second half of the NFL season. Let’s dive into my NFL Week 12 predictions and picks against the spread.
NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks
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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Odds
- Spread
Lions -7.5 - Moneyline
Packers +290, Lions -360 - Total
47.5
There was always going to come a day when taking the Lions over an established franchise on Thanksgiving was going to happen, but it just took a lot longer. Folks, the Lions are the real deal; 16-4 over the last 20 games and an NFL-best 16-4 ATS over that stretch.
MORE: NFL Against the Spread Standings
This includes sweeping the Packers last year, both as an underdog and a blowout in Lambeau earlier this season that cemented Detroit as a contender. I don’t see this week’s game being any different. Detroit completely dominated the first matchup and has only one loss since.
The Packers, meanwhile, only have two wins since, and one was last week with another Chargers meltdown. I don’t like the hook, so I will pay the 25 cents here and will also play the Lions in teaser legs.
Pick: Lions -7 (-125)
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -12.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +520, Cowboys -720 - Total
48.5
Going back to the well here. I’ve played the Commanders’ opponent’s WR1 over prop since Week 3 and hit in eight consecutive weeks. The only reason the streak ended in Week 11 was because I chose the wrong Giants WR since they really don’t have a WR1.
If I had taken Darius Slayton, the streak would be at nine straight. Regardless, some WR has gone over his prop against Washington in each of the last 10 weeks now.
No reason to think anything different will happen with one of the best wide receivers in the game out there in CeeDee Lamb; 88.5. Too high?
That didn’t stop me from taking A.J. Brown o93.5, and he had 88 at halftime en route to an eight-catch, 130-yard, two-TD game when the Eagles met the Commanders last month.
Lamb is averaging 101 yards per game on the season. Over the total.
Pick: CeeDee Lamb over 88.5 (Best Bet)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
49ers -6.5 - Moneyline
49ers -290, Seahawks +240 - Total
43.5
To think we were worried about the Niners as they entered their bye on a three-game losing streak. Since then, they’ve smashed Jacksonville and Tampa Bay to reassert themselves atop the NFC West and now face rival Seattle and banged-up QB Geno Smith.
Smith is likely going to be more beat up after this one with that 49ers defense hunting. San Francisco swept the series last year, winning by 20 at home and eight on the road. They can cover the 6.5 here.
Pick: Niners -6.5
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Odds
- Spread
Dolphins -9.5 - Moneyline
Dolphins -500, Jets +385 - Total
40.5
The Dolphins shouldn’t have a problem here against a Jets team heading in the wrong direction. New York does have a strong defense and has held the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen (the first time), and Jalen Hurts in check. But they also got blown up by Justin Herbert and Allen last week.
Miami’s offense isn’t playing as well as it did earlier this season, so that will keep me from laying 10 or taking the total in this game. However, I will isolate a terrible Jets offense, which is averaging 15 points per game and just benched Zach Wilson vs. an improved Dolphins defense. Miami’s defense has been vastly improved with CB Jalen Ramsey and should hold Tim Boyle and the Jets in check.
Pick: Jets team total under 14.5
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Steelers -1 - Moneyline
Steelers -120, Bengals +100 - Total
34.5
Not a lot to like here. With a backup QB now taking the reigns in Cincy and a new OC in Pittsburgh, that means anything can happen here. My gut tells me to play the under or my bread-and-butter Steelers team total under (5-1 last six weeks), but maybe firing Matt Canada opens the offense up, so we’ll stay away.
Pick: Pass
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
- Spread
Titans -3.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +160, Titans -190 - Total
37.5
There aren’t many good things to say about the Carolina Panthers, but if I could find one, it would be they keep things close vs. bad teams. Yes, they get blown out by the Dallas’ and Miami’s of the world, but they almost beat Chicago and did beat Houston a few weeks back.
MORE: NFL Team Over/Under Standings
Tennessee is done, fading in a terrible AFC South division, and not a team I have any interest in laying 3.5 with. I don’t love the game, but would take the points here, especially on the other side of three.
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
- Spread
Colts -2.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +115, Colts -135 - Total
43.5
While on no one’s radar, the Colts are quietly .500 and on the edge of the playoff race in the tight AFC. If you take a peek at Indianapolis’ remaining schedule, you’ll find only one opponent with a winning record — Week 18 vs. the Texans. Don’t be surprised if they’re still hanging around come January.
I’m out on the Bucs, who have lost five of six since a 3-1 start. As long as this stays under three, I’ll take the better team at home.
Pick: Colts -2.5
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Odds
- Spread
Patriots -3 - Moneyline
Patriots -170, Giants +145 - Total
33.5
This took me about four seconds to hop all over the under at 34 when it hit the board on Sunday night. This is a matchup of the two worst offenses in football, with the Patriots averaging 14.1 ppg and the Giants 13.5, even after scoring a season-high 31 last week vs. Washington.
Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe on one side, Tommy DiVito on the other…. doesn’t matter who starts. First team to 10 wins.
Pick: Under 33.5 (Best Bet)
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Saints -1 - Moneyline
Saints -110, Falcons -110 - Total
42.5
I know it’s not high praise, but I still think the Saints are the best team in the NFC South. I bet them before the season, and despite major inconsistencies and a 5-5 record, they have a one-game lead over the Falcons (and Bucs) in the division.
A win here could open up distance coming down the stretch. The Falcons are going back to Spencer Rattler at QB, which doesn’t give me any confidence, as they were awful with him before.
I’ll lay the small number with the better team here, regardless if it’s Derek Carr or Jameis Winston. The game being in Atlanta doesn’t bother me since New Orleans has won in their home-away-from-home each of the last five trips to the ATL.
Pick: Saints -1
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -1 - Moneyline
Jaguars -120, Texans +100 - Total
48.5
I am riding that Texans and C.J. Stroud Express as long as I can. They served notice of what’s to come in 2023 with a 20-point smackdown in Jacksonville in Week 3 and haven’t looked back since, going 6-2.
It was a coming-out party for Stroud (280 yards, two TDs) and rookie Tank Dell (5-145-TD). While I think this should be closer, I’m playing the Texans at home to sweep the Jags and get a leg up in the division race.
Pick: Texans ML (+100)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Rams -0.5 - Moneyline
Rams -110, Cardinals -110 - Total
44.5
RB Kyren Williams comes off the IR for the Rams in this one, which is ironic, considering the last carry he had was against the Cardinals as part of a 158-yard performance back in Week 6. I think L.A. wins again, but Arizona has looked halfway decent with Kyler Murray back, knocking off Atlanta and having Houston on the ropes.
Not sure what to expect here, so I will pass and not include this one on my card.
Pick: Pass
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Broncos -2.5 - Moneyline
Browns +115, Broncos -135 - Total
35.5
Combined, these two teams are 8-2 over the last five weeks. And both are winning with defense, with the Browns bringing in the top defense in terms of yards allowed and the Broncos looking nothing like the team that gave up 70 to Miami earlier this season.
You know what I love to do with a defensive battle — DTR at QB for the Browns, and Russ still not cooking in Denver? The under.
Pick: Under 35.5 (Best Bet)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -9.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs -450, Raiders +360 - Total
43.5
17-14-9; Those are the point totals for the Chiefs’ offense the last three weeks.
0-0-0; Those are the point totals for Kansas City’s offense in the second half of the last three weeks.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 12
The defending champs are going through some major offensive issues right now, a statement I never thought I’d make for an Andy Reid team. However, the problems are fixable. Just stop dropping the ball, as they have done a league-high 26 times this season. The play-calling is fine, the QB is fine, but the WRs/TEs aren’t holding the ball as we saw Monday night vs. Philly.
However, if there was a get-right spot for Reid and Mahomes, it would be vs. the Raiders: 40-35-28-40-32-35-41-48-30-31. Those are the outputs of the last 10 games/five years vs. the Raiders, dating back to the Oakland days. They have to figure it out at some point.
Pick: Chiefs team total over 25.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
- Spread
Eagles -3.5 - Moneyline
Bills +145, Eagles -170 - Total
48.5
Every part of me wants to fade the Eagles off their big Monday night Super Bowl rematch win. But I still have no faith in the Bills, no matter what they did vs. the lowly Jets last week.
Allen is still a turnover machine and faces one of the more opportunistic defenses in the league. Philadelphia should win this one, but letdowns are hard to read. I’ll play Josh Allen to do Josh Allen things and throw an interception.
Pick: Josh Allen to throw an interception (-120)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Ravens -4.5 - Moneyline
Ravens -210, Chargers +175 - Total
46.5
Unders (yay!) are hitting at a 61% rate this season, and prime-time unders are hitting at an absurd 77% (27-8).
The Ravens enter with one of the best defenses in the league, allowing only 16.1 ppg (second to Niners). You know who doesn’t have any defense? The Chargers, who rank 31st in yards allowed and dead last in passing yards allowed. The end is near for Brandon Staley, and facing the AFC-leading Ravens isn’t going to help.
Pick: Ravens -4.5
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Vikings -3.5 - Moneyline
Bears +150, Vikings -175 - Total
44.5
Speaking of defenses, neither one of these is good, which would lead me to an over, but you DO NOT mess with the under gods. Monday night totals are 11-1 to the under this year, and that’s enough for me to back off. I am going to wait for player props on this one.
Pick: Pass
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