As is weekly tradition here at Pro Football Network, I gave out my initial NFL Week 12 predictions on Sunday night after a first review of the NFL betting odds. Since then, I have had a few days to evaluate the matchups, monitor the injury reports, and observe any line movement. Going into the weekend, here are my NFL picks for this week.
NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Steelers -1.5 - Moneyline
Steelers -122, Bengals +104 - Total
35.5
Could the Steelers’ offense have a big week in their first game without Matt Canada? This Bengals defense, in my opinion, is overrated because of their playoff success in recent years. For the season, they’re 22nd in DVOA, 25th in EPA/play, and 30th in success rate.
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On the other side, while Jake Browning is completely unproven, the Bengals will be coming off a long week to prepare for their first game without Joe Burrow this season.
This will be one of those rare occasions where I take the over on a low total. This seems like a good opportunity to zag.
Pick: Over 35.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans Odds
- Spread
Titans -3.5 - Moneyline
Panthers +160, Titans -190 - Total
37.5
Who are the Titans to be 3.5-point favorites against anybody? I know the Panthers are the worst team in the NFL, but Tennessee isn’t much better. Carolina has covered just one game this season, and I think they make it two on Sunday.
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds
- Spread
Colts -2.5 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +115, Colts -135 - Total
44.5
I don’t have a strong feel for this game. These are two fairly evenly matched teams, and my first instinct was just to side with the home team giving under two points earlier in the week. But since then, the spread has gone up, and now I’m thinking this might be too many points.
The way to attack this Buccaneers defense is through the air, and I’m not sure the Colts have the personnel to take advantage. I’ll take the points with a team that’s undefeated ATS as a road underdog this season.
Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Odds
- Spread
Patriots -3.5 - Moneyline
Patriots -178, Giants +150 - Total
34.5
I’m still confused by this line — why are the Patriots giving a field goal plus the hook on the road?! Maybe it’s respect for Bill Belichick in a matchup against an undrafted rookie quarterback. That’s not enough for me to want to lay the points with New England, but it could be a good fade of the Giants.
New York had a very lucky win last week with six takeaways against the Commanders. That led to 31 points, including a garbage-time touchdown at the end, that I’m pretty confident they won’t come close to replicating again this season.
Pick: Giants under 15.5
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Saints -1.5 - Moneyline
Saints -126, Falcons +108 - Total
41.5
I was a believer in this Saints team before the season, but I have completely changed my mind after watching them actually play football.
MORE: Bearman’s Week 12 Predictions and Picks ATS
For the season, the Falcons have been a much better team at home than on the road, with a 3-2 record and +6 point differential compared to 1-4 and -18 away from Atlanta. With the home team getting points here, I’ll ride with them.
Pick: Falcons +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -1.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars -120, Texans +102 - Total
47.5
This is another divisional matchup of near-evenly matched teams, with the home team getting points. But is the correct team favored here?
C.J. Stroud has outplayed Trevor Lawrence this season, and defensively, the Texans are allowing fewer yards per game. Houston is rolling right now on a three-game winning streak, and I’m all in on Stroud. I like this as a teaser spot especially, but I’ll take them straight up here.
Pick: Texans ML
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Rams -1.5 - Moneyline
Rams -124, Cardinals +106 - Total
44.5
Cooper Kupp returned to practice on Thursday, and Kyren Williams is expected to make his return as well. The last time these two teams played, Williams ran for 158 yards and a touchdown. Their Week 6 matchup was also the last time this offense was at full strength and just the second game all season.
Against a bad Cardinals defense that is 27th in pass rush win rate, I like the Rams to put up points in this one.
Pick: Rams over 23.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos Odds
- Spread
Broncos -1.5 - Moneyline
Browns +100, Broncos -118 - Total
36.5
If they can each avoid turnovers, I’m not sure how either team is scoring points in this one. In the Broncos’ four-game winning streak, they have been averaging less than 300 yards per game, and now are going up against the best defense in the NFL.
Denver’s defense, meanwhile, has been really impressive as well. Over the last four weeks, they’ve been top 10 in EPA/play — even with games against the Bills and Chiefs.
Pick: Under 36.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Chiefs -8.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs -460, Raiders +360 - Total
43
The Raiders are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, and this line has dropped quite a bit since Monday Night Football last week. But is this line movement too much of an overreaction?
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I’m not expecting the Chiefs’ offense to have as many drops as they did last week or for Travis Kelce to fumble the ball in the red zone again. I’m even more confident in their defense against Aidan O’Connell as well, who, outside of their 30-6 win over the Giants, has played like a rookie drafted in the fourth round thus far.
Pick: Raiders under 16.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
- Spread
Eagles -3 - Moneyline
Bills +140, Eagles -166 - Total
48.5
It appears the oddsmakers have more confidence in this Bills team than the general public, and for good reason. Despite their 6-5 record, Buffalo is still more than capable of competing against anybody, including the 9-1 Eagles.
The value is gone, in my opinion, now that the line has dropped from 3.5 to 3, but I do like the matchup for the Bills’ offense in this one.
Concerns about Philadelphia’s pass defense shouldn’t go away because of their win over the Chiefs. Outside of Travis Kelce, that’s perhaps the worst group of pass catchers in the NFL, and Philly got bailed out by drops.
In this matchup, I can see the Eagles struggling with Josh Allen, particularly as a scrambler, and to contain both Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid.
Pick: Bills over 21.5
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Ravens -3.5 - Moneyline
Ravens -190, Chargers +160 - Total
48.5
Losing Mark Andrew could be a huge blow to the Ravens’ passing game, which has looked better than ever in Lamar Jackson’s career. Without Lamar’s most reliable target, which Ravens receiver will step up in his absence?
My concerns could be overstated, but that, combined with Baltimore’s elite defense, has me liking the under at a key number. And this being a prime-time game certainly makes it even more appealing.
Pick: Under 48.5
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Vikings -3 - Moneyline
Bears +140, Vikings -168 - Total
43.5
Another prime-time under?! Yes, another prime-time under.
I’ve mentioned previously how much this Vikings defense has improved under Brian Flores, but I also need to acknowledge the turnaround for the Bears’ defense this season. When they started the season 0-4, they were 31st in EPA defensively. Since then, they’ve been the 11th best.
Chicago’s run defense has been especially good this season, as they lead the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt.
Pick: Under 43.5
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