Last week gave us Miami Dolphins-Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles, and Seattle Seahawks-Baltimore Ravens, three battles between likely playoff teams. This week, well, it’s better to just look at the games as betting opportunities and not classics. We are now in the second half of the NFL season, so let’s dive into our NFL Week 10 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Odds
- Spread
Colts -1.5 - Moneyline
Colts -126, Patriots +108 - Total
43.5
Outside of the stunner vs. the Buffalo Bills, not much has gone right for New England this season. This game might be in Germany, but it’s still a bad roster the Patriots are taking.
The Colts ended a three-game losing streak with the win at the Panthers last week and are quietly 4-4 and in the middle of the pack. I don’t think they’re a playoff team, but top to bottom, they’re better than the Patriots. Don’t overthink this one.
Pick: Colts -1.5 (Best Bet)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
49ers -3 - Moneyline
49ers -162, Jaguars +136 - Total
44.5
The shine has worn off a bit on the 49ers, who started the season 5-0, scoring at least 30 in all five and winning by an average of 19.8 points per game. It’s been all downhill since for Brock Purdy and the Niners, losing three straight and only scoring 17 ppg.
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They go up against a Jaguars team that entered last week’s bye week red hot, winners of five straight, including four wins away from home. Both these teams are good, but I like the points with Jacksonville, especially with the Niners not playing well on either side of the ball during their swoon.
Pick: Jaguars +3
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Saints -2.5 - Moneyline
Saints -136, Vikings +116 - Total
41
This might be my favorite matchup of the week, a battle of two teams headed in the right direction. All credit in the world to Joshua Dobbs and what he pulled off last week, having no knowledge of his teammates or playbook, but some of that has to fall on it being the Atlanta Falcons too.
The Saints are a much better team than the Falcons and should be able to slow Dobbs down. No play here, but I lean Saints.
Pick: Lean Saints -2.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Buccaneers -1.5 - Moneyline
Titans -102, Buccaneers -116 - Total
38.5
Even though the Titans lost last week at Pittsburgh, I like what I see out of Will Levis. And I don’t like what I see from the Buccaneers defense that allowed rookie C.J. Stroud to pass all over them.
With two defenses that are both allowing over 20 ppg and two hot QBs, I’m going to do something I haven’t done many times this season … take an over.
Pick: Over 38.5
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -6 - Moneyline
Browns +200, Ravens -245 - Total
38.5
Defense. Defense. Defense. These two teams rank 1-2 in yards allowed and 1-3 in points allowed. When we last saw this matchup, I played the under 37.5, and they didn’t disappoint, finishing 28-3 in favor of the Ravens.
The warning on this bet is that the Ravens themselves have scored 31+ points in each of their last three games.
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But those teams didn’t have the Browns defense. I expect another low-scoring game between two good defenses and a not-so-good Cleveland offense. If you’re worried about a Ravens blowout, take the Browns’ team total under 16.5.
Pick: Under 38.5 (Best Bet)
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Bengals -6.5 - Moneyline
Texans +260, Bengals -320 - Total
48
With all due respect to the red-hot Bengals, this is too many points here. After an 0-2 start, the Texans are 4-2 with a pair of two-point losses with Offensive Rookie of the Year leader Stroud dominating defenses.
The Bengals have been as good as anyone the last five weeks, going 4-0 with three wins versus likely playoff teams in the Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, and 49ers. I think Cincy will get their fifth straight win, but 6.5 is too many points for what Stroud is doing.
Note: you should protect yourself and pay the 24 cents to get 7.
Pick: Texans +7 (-124)
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
- Spread
Steelers -3 - Moneyline
Packers +150, Steelers -178 - Total
38.5
I’m not going to pretend here. I have no idea who is going to win this game, so picking a side does not interest me. Both teams play well one week and look awful the next.
What does interest me is the same bet I have made for five straight weeks, going 4-1: Steelers team total under. And because they accidentally scored 20 last Thursday, the number is 21.5 (-125) at DraftKings. Under, please.
Pick: Steelers team total under 21.5 (Best Bet)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Falcons -1.5 - Moneyline
Falcons -118, Cardinals +100 - Total
43
I’d be all over the under-43 here if the Falcons’ defense wasn’t so bad the last two weeks versus a QB who didn’t know the playbook and a rookie who had never played before. Yes, Levis and Dobbs had seven total TDs over the last two weeks against Arthur Smith’s squad.
Kyler Murray and James Conner both might be back for Arizona, but I’m not sure it matters with how bad that team is. Total pass here, though I lean toward Arizona if Murray and Conner play.
Pick: Pass
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Lions -1.5 - Moneyline
Lions -120, Chargers +102 - Total
48.5
Let’s slow down the “Chargers figured it out” mantra. They beat the Bears and New York Jets the last two weeks. Yes, they were in prime time, so everyone thinks they are Super Bowl contenders now, which is just fine because the line reflects that people are jumping on them.
I will happily take the Lions at a low price of -1.5. If you don’t want to mess with the points, take the ML at -135.
Pick: Lions -1.5
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -16.5 - Moneyline
Giants +870, Cowboys -1500 - Total
38.5
The 16.5 might seem shocking until you remember the Cowboys won this matchup 40-0 on the road in Week 1. Things haven’t gotten any better for the Giants since that horrific start, so it’s a quite reasonable line.
I tend not to lay double digits in the NFL, but you couldn’t give me money to take the Giants at any price. My bread and butter are the team total unders, but even that is down to 10.5. I still lean under there, but teams can accidentally get to 11 points. Total pass.
Pick: Pass
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -6 - Moneyline
Commanders +220, Seahawks -270 - Total
45.5
Just when you think you’ve figured the Seahawks out, they put up a stinker vs. the Ravens. I’m going to chalk that up to a West Coast team facing a local start on the road on the East Coast vs. one of the best teams in the league.
The Commanders held on nicely last week against New England, but that’s not that impressive. I’m tempted to lay the six here, but it might be too high.
Pick: Pass
New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Jets -1.5 - Moneyline
Jets -124, Raiders +106 - Total
37
You’ve read all about the prime-time unders this season. These teams have been in a combined six prime-time games, with the under hitting each time.
The Raiders broke 21 for the first time all season last week, but it was against the Giants. The Jets … well … their offense is as bad as we anticipated when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1, and we all saw it Monday night versus the Chargers. Another prime-time under coming up.
Pick: Under 37 (Best Bet)
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -7.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +320, Bills -405 - Total
47
Don’t look now, but the Bills just might be in must-win mode. With four losses — more than all of last season — and Philly, K.C., Dallas, Miami, LAC, and NYJ on the schedule, there isn’t much room for error left. Even in must-win mode, I’m not laying 7.5 with a squad that hasn’t looked like a playoff team since dismantling the Dolphins in Week 4.
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Since then, the Bills are 2-3 with squeakers over the Giants and Bucs. As painful as watching the Broncos in prime time has been the last two seasons, they at least are coming off a couple of good games in a row, almost sweeping K.C. and getting the last-minute win over the Packers. It’s a little dangerous, but I like the points here.
Pick: Broncos +7.5
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