The NFL slate this week is terrible, to say the least, especially for prime-time matchups, but that doesn’t mean you won’t be betting on these games. I gave my initial NFL picks after the odds first opened on Sunday night, but here are my updated NFL Week 10 predictions and picks against the spread.
NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Odds
- Spread
Colts -1.5 - Moneyline
Colts -122, Patriots +104 - Total
43.5
If there was any early-morning game for people on the West Coast to sleep through, it’s Gardner Minshew II vs. Mac Jones.
Overs are 6-3 in Colts games this season, which is the best in the NFL, but I’m anticipating some regression. A big reason for these overs hitting is the number of turnovers from both the Colts and their opponents this season, ranking sixth in takeaways and seventh in giveaways. Over their last four games, there have been 17 combined turnovers from both the Colts and their opponents.
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The Colts might be seventh in points per game, but their offense is 22nd in EPA/play, and the Patriots rank 30th. It may be a tall order asking these quarterbacks to protect the football, but even despite two pick-sixes from the Colts last week, the under hit for the first time in four weeks.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
49ers -3 - Moneyline
49ers -164, Jaguars +138 - Total
45.5
Aside from a terrible performance against an elite Cleveland Browns defense, I think Brock Purdy’s struggles during the 49ers’ three-game losing streak have been a bit overstated. I’m in the camp that believes Purdy went from being overrated to now underrated, as he isn’t having the same turnover luck he did before. All five of his interceptions have come in his last three games, and that’s more than he threw all of last season, including the playoffs.
I usually don’t like taking road favorites against playoff teams, but I like this as a bounce-back for San Francisco. The Jaguars have been on a five-game winning streak and look like one of the best teams in football, but I’m concerned about their 31st-ranked offensive line in pass-block win rate going against this 49ers defensive line.
Pick: 49ers -3 (-110 at FanDuel)
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds
- Spread
Saints -2.5 - Moneyline
Saints -146, Vikings +124 - Total
41
The Saints have been one of my least favorite teams to bet on this season, as there is nothing fun about watching Derek Carr throw checkdowns to Alvin Kamara over and over again. But I like this as a sell-high spot for Joshua Dobbs and the Minnesota Vikings after their big win last week against an elite Saints defense.
Carr as a road favorite scares me, but they’re giving under a field goal here; that shouldn’t be too many points to ask them to cover, right?
Pick: Saints -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
- Spread
Buccaneers -1.5 - Moneyline
Titans -104, Buccaneers -112 - Total
38.5
I might be walking into a trap here, but why is the total so low? This Buccaneers defense just gave up 39 points and allowed C.J. Stroud to throw for 470 yards and five TDs just last week. Both Will Levis and Baker Mayfield should have success in this one, as this matchup features the 26th and 27th-ranked passing defenses by EPA/play.
I rarely play overs on low totals, but these are two teams with overrated defenses and underrated quarterbacks when it comes to putting points on the board.
Pick: Over 38.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -6 - Moneyline
Browns +230, Ravens -280 - Total
38.5
I want to take the Browns here, but I’m having a much easier time trusting Lamar Jackson against an elite defense than Deshaun Watson. If there were any two teams to sell high on after last week, besides the Vikings, it’s the Ravens (who just beat an NFC contender by 34 points) and the Browns (who won in a 27-0 shutout against an extremely overwhelmed rookie QB).
In a divisional matchup featuring the two best defenses in the NFL, I think the safest play is to take the under and pray that neither team forces many turnovers.
Pick: Under 38.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds
- Spread
Bengals -6.5 - Moneyline
Texans +260, Bengals -320 - Total
48
Since the beginning of their four-game winning streak, the Bengals have had the eight-best defense by EPA/play in the NFL, and they have played against three of the best offenses in the NFL during that span in the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Buffalo Bills. After having a historical performance against the Bucs at home last week, this will be a much more difficult matchup for Stroud and another good sell-high spot.
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This line has dropped since opening at 7.5 on Sunday night, as there is a ton of love for Stroud from the betting public. Now that you can get the Bengals at under a touchdown, this is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Pick: Bengals -6.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds
- Spread
Steelers -3 - Moneyline
Packers +150, Steelers -178 - Total
38.5
I would love to fade an overrated 5-3 Steelers team as a favorite, but the Packers are certainly not a team I want to bet on. If you’re tired of me giving out unders picks, I have some bad news for you.
The Steelers are two games above .500 despite failing to out-gain their opponent in a single game this season. Both the Steelers and Packers have each gone four games in a row without the combined total going above 38.5, as neither offense can move the ball consistently.
Pick: Under 39 (-112 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds
- Spread
Falcons -1.5 - Moneyline
Falcons -116, Cardinals -102 - Total
43.5
Kyler Murray will be really rusty in his first game back in nearly a year since tearing his ACL but is still a massive upgrade over what we saw from Clayton Tune last week. But will it be enough to lead a really bad Cardinals team to its second win of the season? I’m on the fence.
If the Falcons’ offense was a stock, they would be available at an all-time low price. Arthur Smith is basically trolling us with his usage of Bijan Robinson, especially in the red zone, but they’ll be facing the 31st-ranked defense by EPA/play and DVOA in the NFL.
Pick: Falcons ML (-116 at FanDuel)
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds
- Spread
Lions -3 - Moneyline
Lions -144, Chargers +122 - Total
48.5
The line has moved up 1.5 points since Sunday night as the public loves the Lions as a short-week road favorite here, and I don’t disagree. The Lions appear to be healthy coming out of their bye, with David Montgomery and starting offensive linemen Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow back at practice this week. That gives the offense a huge boost against a bad Chargers defense that benefited from consecutive games against the Bears and New York Jets.
I might wait to see if this falls back to below a field goal before pulling the trigger.
Pick: Lions -3 (-105 at FanDuel)
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -16.5 - Moneyline
Giants +900, Cowboys -1600 - Total
38.5
If you have zero interest in taking the Giants but are a bit scared of betting on the Cowboys to cover such a large number, keep in mind they have won four games by at least 20 points this season. That includes a 40-0 shutout road win over the Giants when they were a much healthier team.
I’m not sure how low the Giants team total under would have to be for me not to take it here, but 10.5 definitely isn’t it. Tommy DeVito is the ultimate tanking quarterback, and with Daniel Jones out for the season, this team has no incentive to try and win football games at 2-7.
Pick: Giants under 10.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Washington Commanders vs. Seattle Seahawks Odds
- Spread
Seahawks -6 - Moneyline
Commanders +225, Seahawks -290 - Total
45.5
Geno Smith has struggled in recent weeks, but he has also gone up against the two best defenses in the NFL on the road. Now, he gets a very favorable matchup against a Commanders defense that is one of the worst in the NFL, especially at defending the pass.
Despite his inconsistency, the Seahawks offense is still 10th-best in DVOA and has a lot of talent at the skill positions. With their team total below a key number of 27.5, I like the over here in what should be a bounce back for Geno and Co.
Pick: Seahawks over 26.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Jets -1.5 - Moneyline
Jets -120, Raiders +102 - Total
36.5
I never would have thought that, in an NFL game featuring Zach Wilson, I would have less confidence in the opposing team’s quarterback, and that is solely because of this Jets defense. Rookie Aidan O’Connell had a very efficient game against the Giants last week, who have a solid defense themselves, but this Jets unit is an entirely different beast.
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The Jets should be able to get Breece Hall going against a Raiders run defense that is 28th in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. Remember just two weeks ago when Jahmyr Gibbs ran for over 150 yards?
I also like fading the Raiders coming off an inspiring win in interim head coach Antonio Pierce’s debut.
Pick: Jets -1 (-112 at DraftKings)
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Odds
- Spread
Bills -7.5 - Moneyline
Broncos +320, Bills -405 - Total
47
We have talked at length here at PFN about how much worse the Bills’ defense has gotten since they suffered injuries to several key players. Well, what better opponent for a get-right game for this unit than the Broncos?
There has also been a false narrative going around that the Bills’ offense has been struggling. For the season, they’re the best in the NFL in success rate and are averaging the fifth-most yards per game. Over their last five games, in which they have gone 2-3, their offense is still top-five in nearly every statistical category.
Broncos stock is up slightly after winning two games in a row, including against the Kansas City Chiefs, before their bye week. But Patrick Mahomes was sick for that game, and their other win came against a dreadful Packers team. As a regretful pre-season Broncos backer, I’m not buying it.
Pick: Bills -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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