Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head game we’ve all grown to love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines. Here are my top plays for Underdog’s Week 1 Pick’em contest.
Top Underdog Pick’ems Week 1 Sunday games
Underdog Pick’ems allow fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts. The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s NFL pick’ems.
Trey Lance less than 25.5 pass attempts
In his first game as the clear starter for the 49ers, I expect Kyle Shanahan to make things as easy as possible for Trey Lance. This game should feature the 49ers going with a run-heavy approach and a lot of read options.
The 49ers ran the ball 60% of the time in positive game script situations (leading by 7+) last season. That was the third-highest rate in the league. There’s a real chance Lance doesn’t even get to 20 pass attempts. Lance throwing less than 25.5 pass attempts is an excellent Week 1 Underdog Pick’em play.
Elijah Mitchell more than 61.5 rushing yards
This NFL pick’em play correlates with the one above it. One of the best ways to maximize value in Underdog Pick’em entries is to make correlated picks. If Lance isn’t throwing a lot, then Elijah Mitchell is probably rushing a lot.
The 49ers are likely to win handily against what I think is the worst team in the NFL. They are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, which will only increase with Trey Lance under center. See above about the 49ers’ run rate in positive game script.
Mitchell is the clear RB1. As we saw last season, Jeff Wilson only matters when Mitchell is out. Look for Mitchell to see plenty of volume to the point where he may not even need to be efficient to exceed 61.5 rushing yards.
If your Underdog Pick’em entry includes more than one pick, you want to tell a story with your entries. The story I’m telling here is a game where the 49ers lead throughout and execute a run-heavy game plan, limiting Lance’s pass attempts while leaning on Mitchell. If one of these picks is correct, both probably are.
Cole Kmet more than four receptions
Let’s continue the narrative from the previous two picks with Cole Kmet. Given that I like the 49ers to control the game against the Bears, I expect Chicago to have to throw to catch up.
The Bears do not have a clear WR2 behind Darnell Mooney. The guy with the second-most targets on the team should be Cole Kmet.
Kmet had at least four receptions in eight games last year. He did that on a team that still had Allen Robinson. I’d be stunned if Kmet wasn’t regularly catching 4-5 passes this season.
There’s a chance Kmet lands directly on four receptions. If that happens, that’s okay because the pick won’t lose; it will just push.
Mac Jones less than 230.5 passing yards
I don’t think anyone is expecting a back-and-forth, high-octane points fest in Miami this Sunday. Even if this isn’t a low-scoring, defensive slog, this shouldn’t be a shootout. The Patriots are unlikely to find themselves in negative game script needing to throw to keep up. As a result, Bill Belichick should be able to stick to his preferred plan of running the ball, controlling the clock, and protecting Mac Jones.
Jones had seven games last season where he exceeded 230.5 passing yards. Although two of those seven came against the Dolphins, five of them were at home. The Patriots are on the road this week, where Jones had more than 230.5 passing yards just twice. Furthermore, in both of those games, the Patriots lost by two scores.
I expect a relatively close game this week where neither team puts the game away early. As a result, Jones shouldn’t get to 230 passing yards.
Lamar Jackson less than 29.5 pass attempts
In 2019 and 2020, Lamar Jackson averaged 26.7 and 25.1 pass attempts per game, respectively. Last season, the Ravens were forced to throw more for two reasons. They lost their top three running backs due to injury before the season even began, and, more importantly, their defense was dreadful due to also being decimated by injury. As a result, they frequently played from behind.
The Ravens are expected to dispatch the Joe Flacco-led Jets relatively easily this week. In 2020, the Ravens won nine games by at least two scores. In those games, Jackson exceeded 30 pass attempts just once. I think the Ravens control this game throughout, and we see a lot more running, limiting Jackson’s pass attempts.
Jonathan Taylor more than 98.5 rushing yards
Despite the Colts’ upgrade at quarterback from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan, they still should lean on Jonathan Taylor.
Last season, the Colts ran the ball 47% of the time in neutral game scripts. In positive game scripts, that rate went up to 57%.
Taylor averaged 106.5 rushing yards per game last season. In his two games against the Texans, he ran for 145 and 143 yards. Most importantly, Taylor rushed for more than 100 yards in every single game the Colts won last year. I feel pretty good about the Colts winning this game. JT is set up to smash in Week 1.
Parris Campbell less than 30.5 receiving yards
Once again, we’re trying to tell a story here. The story is Taylor dominates on the ground, and the Colts don’t throw that much.
Parris Campbell is slated to be the Colts’ primary slot receiver. I’m just not sure how much he will play in two-receiver sets. It also wouldn’t shock me to see the Colts run a meaningful number of plays with just Michael Pittman on the field as the lone wide receiver.
Although he’s fully healthy now, I’m banking on Campbell not playing enough snaps, running enough routes, or seeing enough targets to amass more than 30 receiving yards.
James Conner more than 14.75 fantasy points
No one should expect James Conner to see the level of volume he did last season. With that said, it’s Week 1. Conner is fully healthy, and this game is shaping up to be one where the Cardinals are going to put as much on Conner’s plate as he can handle.
The Cardinals were already going to be without DeAndre Hopkins. Now, they will likely be missing Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore as well. That leaves Marquise Brown and 34-year-old A.J. Green as Kyler Murray’s top two targets.
Look for Conner to be heavily involved as a receiver. I can see him racking up 4-6 fantasy points through the air while also rushing for 50-60 yards. He probably needs a touchdown to reach 14.75 fantasy points, but I think he gets it in what could be the highest-scoring game of the week.
The reason I prefer Conner’s fantasy points as opposed to him scoring a touchdown is he can still get to 15 fantasy points without scoring.