Odds for the opening week of the upcoming NFL season have been out since May, and it’s NEVER too early to start thinking about wagering on these games. Here’s a rundown of the Week 1 NFL betting lines as well as our best bets from PFN’s Betting Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting and Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz, and Betting Director Brian Blewis.
NFL Week 1 Lines and Best Bets From PFN’s Betting Team
To see all of the Week 1 lines, make sure to select the game you are looking for in the dropdown below.
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/new/widget/odds/nfl/org:pro-football-network/event:2023-24-week-1/cta/showAverage/showbestOdds/limit:4/default:ats/?id=176dc004-d785-44e8-b490-85e062f53034″]Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Wingo: Chiefs giving 7. Kansas City has won a record seven straight Week 1 games.
Best Bet: Chiefs -7
Bearman: Yes, they are the Super Bowl champs. Yes, they won 14 games last regular season, tied with the Eagles for most in the league. But did you know they were 6-11 against the number last season, tied for third-worst in football per Inside Edge? Even worse at home, going 2-6 ATS (second worst). Simply put, Kansas City didn’t blow teams out, often getting off to slow starts.
Now, are they the best team in football? Probably. Will they win the game? Likely. But seven is a lot of points to give off the bat, especially to a Lions team that will challenge for one of the top offenses in football. The Lions were fifth in the NFL at over 26 points per game last season with a fast, high-powered offense. Oh, and they were 12-5 vs. the number last year, second best in the NFL. The Chiefs get their rings and banner, but it won’t be a blowout.
Best Bet: Lions +7
Blewis: One game in, and we already have a bet-off!
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns
Wingo: Cincinnati is just 1-4 vs. the Browns in their last five games. Give me the Browns and the points.
Best Bet: Browns +2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Wingo: Jacksonville giving 3.5 at Indianapolis seems incredibly low when you consider the Colts will start a different QB in Week 1 for the eighth-straight season.
Best Bet: Jaguars -3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Blewis: The Vikings are a team I’m looking to fade early in the season until the sportsbooks start to adjust. Although they went 13-4 last season, Minnesota won 11 of those games by one score, an NFL record.
They also somehow had a negative point differential despite being nine games above .500. The Vikings aren’t terribly overvalued in the futures market by any means, with a win total of just 8.5, but this feels like an inflated line.
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/promos:1?id=4c67aef4-7d79-4ce0-a4ff-da4d08817cea”]Going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield is obviously a downgrade at QB, but Brady finally showed some of his age in 2022, and last season’s defense, which was 10th in yards per game allowed, is largely intact.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +6.5
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-6)
Blewis: This line is inflated by the public wanting to fade the Cardinals, who are projected to be the worst team in the NFL this season. The Commanders are only favored in one more game for the rest of the season, and this spread is 4.5 points higher. Sam Howell is too unproven to be a six-point favorite this early in his career.
The books are begging you to take the Cardinals here, and the line has already moved 1.5 points. Week 1 is also too early to start tanking for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. I mean, the Bears and Texans each covered to start the season last year.
You want to get nuts?! LET’S GET NUTS!
Best Bet: Cardinals +6
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Katz: Consider all the negativity surrounding the Titans this season, including talks of Ryan Tannehill being gone, as well as reports that Will Levis could take over sooner rather than later if Tennessee gets off to a slow start.
I imagine the Saints will be a heavy public play laying only a field goal at home in Week 1. The Titans may very well end up being a bad team, but I don’t think they are punting this season, as evidenced by their signing of DeAndre Hopkins. Mike Vrabel always keeps them competitive, and I think Tennessee starts the season 1-0 with a road win over New Orleans.
Best Bet: Titans +3
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Soppe: The Dirty Birds were the sixth-slowest moving offense a season ago (third slowest when leading), and they spent up to draft a running back. Another slow season is more than likely in store for the Falcons.
Marry that with a rookie quarterback on the other side, and the only way to play this total is to go under. Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks see 63% of September games go under the number (all other months: 49.8%).
Best Bet: Under 42.5 points
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at New England Patriots
Katz: For this one, perhaps I’m allowing myself to be suckered. The Eagles laying only 4.5 against what projects to be a bottom-five team? If the Patriots keep this close, more power to them. There’s just such a massive gap in talent here.
This feels like one of those lines where if these teams met later in the season, it would be Eagles -7. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if this line closed at around -6 after opening at 3.5.
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Bearman: I agree with Katz here. Philly is a far better team here and should be favored by 6-7 points. The move from 3.5 to 4.5 doesn’t worry me too much as you weren’t getting it at 3 anyhow, and the Eagles are a touchdown better than New England.
The Eagles return a 14-win team that arguably got better through the drafting of Georgia’s entire defense, and nothing the Patriots did in the offseason got me excited. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mike Gesicki are good players, but this was an eight-win team last year that won’t be any better this year. Lay the wood.
Pick: Eagles -4.5
Blewis: Don’t forget this is The Matt Patricia Revenge Game.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-4)
Katz: There’s no denying how massively the Broncos upgraded at head coach, going from Nathaniel Hackett to Sean Payton. But as much as I want to believe in Payton, I truly think Russell Wilson is just done. He’s almost 35 years old, and we’ve never seen a mobile QB remain effective beyond age 32/33. If anyone can be the outlier, it’s Wilson. But the Raiders are being discounted a bit too much here.
Best Bet: Raiders +4
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Blewis: The biggest question mark for the Miami Dolphins this season will be the health of Tua Tagovailoa, and barring a terrible training camp or preseason injury, he will be the starting QB for Week 1. The Dolphins went 8-4 in games that Tua started and finished last season, and their 24th-ranked defense from a year ago should be much improved with the additions of Jalen Ramsey and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
These are two near-equal teams, as evidenced by their matching Super Bowl odds, but the Chargers are 2.5-point favorites due to their non-existent home-field advantage? Give me the Dolphins.
Best Bet: Dolphins +2.5
Soppe: Over the past four seasons, underdogs in games with a 50-plus-point total have covered 58.9% of the time. If that wasn’t enough, that cover rate moves to 61.9% when that underdog is playing on the road. If you’re really getting aggressive or prefer to wait to see where the line moves, the Bolts have seen a league-high 19 games during the Justin Herbert era be decided by three points or less.
“Key numbers” are less of a thing now than in years past (PAT changes, analytics, etc.), but if there was ever a time to chase that extra half point for insurance, this is it.
Best Bet: Dolphins +2.5
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Bearman: I’ll keep this simple. The Green Bay Packers were not a good team last year with Aaron Rodgers and will not be a good team this year without the former MVP.
They were a 4-8 done-and-buried team before the late run that ended in the final game of season vs. the Lions. I’m not saying the Bears are a good team, as they were my successful pick (thank you, Lovie Smith) to have the worst record last year.
[tallysight url=”https://tallysight.com/widget/offers/pro-football-network/promos:1?id=4c67aef4-7d79-4ce0-a4ff-da4d08817cea”]However, the Bears are better than the Packers and should beat them in the home opener by at least a field goal. They also should be improved this year, trading that No. 1 pick for WR D.J. Moore to give QB Justin Fields more options. Adding Tremaine Edmunds on defense makes them deeper there as well.
The line has moved from -1 to -3, but as long as it stays there, I’m interested. Buyer beware, as 78% of the tickets and 90% of the handle at BetMGM are also on Chicago, but I do think this is the right side.
For the first time in two decades, it doesn’t matter that Rodgers owns the Bears. He isn’t there if you had not heard.
Best Bet: Bears -3
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Jets
Soppe: This is lining up to be a good “don’t forget how good we are” spot for the Bills. They are 15-5-1 ATS when Josh Allen starts a game, and the spread is no more than three points in either direction. And that’s going to be the case here.
Buffalo has also overachieved early in seasons under Allen: 16-8 ATS when he starts the first five games of the season (that’s a 66.7% cover rate compared to a 56.3% cover rate after the fifth game).
Pair that with the overall excitement surrounding the debut of Rodgers in Green and White … it’s a buy spot. Rodgers is just 4-6 ATS in his past 10 games that featured an over/under north of 45 points.
That record isn’t that bad until you consider that he was 15-7 ATS in the 22 such games prior. Rodgers may very well take this Jets team to new heights, and that excitement has this line sitting a little low for back-to-back-to-back AFC East champions.
Pick: Bills -1.5
Blewis: I agree with Soppe here. The Bills’ “struggles” at the end of last season have people forgetting just how good they really are, and the Jets are perhaps the most overhyped team heading into this season. If you aren’t buying the Jets then you should be fading them early in the season when their value is at an all-time high. Especially when you can get the Bills at less than two points.
Soppe, don’t forget that Rodgers has lost his last two season openers. Small sample size, but this time around, he will be getting acclimated to a new team for the first time in his career.
Best Bet: Bills -1.5
Other Week 1 NFL Games
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Over the past three seasons, teams favored by more than a touchdown in September are 13-8 ATS (61.9% cover rate), a significant change from the 14-18 ATS mark (43.8% cover rate) for teams in that spot in the three seasons prior.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are a covering machine under Mike Tomlin as underdogs; 51-27-3 ATS and 15-4-3 as home underdogs.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5)
Over the past four seasons, road teams have covered 68.7% of NFC West games. In that same stretch, underdog ATS tickets have cashed 56.5% of the time. The Rams check both of those boxes, and the spread is trending away from them as camps open.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants
The Giants were the best team against the spread last season, going 13-4 ATS and 10-2 as underdogs.