We break down the slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 6 will be, and if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report for Week 6: A Worry-Free Forecast Across the Slate
After a week full of surprises, the Week 6 slate of games should be smooth sailing as it relates to the weather forecast. The NFL Week 6 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff.
The NFL weather forecast for Week 6 is based on reporting from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5), O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The NFL and everyone want you to believe that running backs don’t matter. While that makes some sense in the modern game, all that matters in this matchup are the running backs.
For one, Nick Chubb is playing a grown man’s game. He’s playing like Billy Madison going back to school, just holding the dodgeball and saying, “now you’re all in big trouble.” He’s the RB2 in fantasy, rushing for over 100 yards in four of five games, averaging 20.8 touches and 126 total yards, which is just absurd.
New England’s defense is going to have its lunch money stolen. They’re allowed the second-highest rushing success rate, sixth-highest EPA per rush, and 11th-most rushing yards per game. They also wear down against “normal” humans.
While they’re No. 2 in the first half in DVOA (-29.2%), they’re 30th when coming back out of the locker room (20.9%). After being run over by Chubb for 30 minutes, the second half could be a bloodbath.
Sticking with the RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson has a top-six upside in Week 6 for fantasy, so long as Bill Belichick doesn’t mess this up. Stevenson went ballistic last week, carrying the ball 25 times for 161 yards, adding in two catches on two targets for 14 yards with Damien Harris injuring his hamstring.
You’d think going against Chubb and Kareem Hunt in practice would make you more prepared, but that’s not the case. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most fantasy PPG to RBs (28.7) and have the second-worst run defense EPA. I hope you either have them on your roster or aren’t facing them this week.
As for the Week 6 weather forecast in Cleveland, expect mostly sunny skies and 65-degree temperatures with eight mph winds.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers (-7.5), O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
While the receivers, especially Garrett Wilson, want Joe Flacco back under center, Breece Hall says no thanks. He’s been as good as advertised, if not better. He’s taken over the backfield since Week 4 and enjoyed a more rushing-focused approach.
He’s finished as the RB15 (15.8 PPR) and RB4 (27.7 PPR) while playing 67% of the snaps averaging 19.5 touches and 137.5 total yards. He’s even up to the RB10 in points per game.
He’s also the best chance as the best defense for Aaron Rodgers is to keep the ball out of his hands. The Jets will attack the Packers at their weak point, which is their rushing defense. While they’re 16th in points allowed (22.16), they’re 29th in rush EPA, dead-last in success rate, and 27th in explosive run rate.
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It just so happens over 37% of Hall’s yards have come on rushes of 10 yards or more. Hall is a low-end RB1 for fantasy in Week 6. His 59.5 rushing-yard projection on Underdog Pick’ems feels like cheating. Smash the higher.
Green Bay’s Week 6 weather forecast should feature 47-degree temperatures, mostly skies, and ten mph winds that could gust to 15 mph, with a 20% to 30% chance of a light sprinkle that could turn to flurries overnight.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Miami Dolphins, O/U 45.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Although Skylar Thompson will be under center, the news on Tua Tagovailoa is the only thing that matters. It was reported Tua cleared the concussion protocol and, while not available for Week 6, will return for Week 7 against the Steelers.
That’s the best news we could have dreamed of, and hopefully, he can move forward and take this offense to levels many have hoped for this offseason.
As for the guys on the field, start your studs. Kirk Cousins is a low-end QB1. Davin Cook, while doing his best Katy Perry impression going hot and cold every week, is a top-10 RB, and Justin Jefferson is a top-three receiver for Week 6.
With Miami, Tyreek Hill is a must-start, and while his floor is lower with Thompson on the field, Jaylen Waddle is too damn talented to bench him. Now isn’t the time to get too cute.
I am slightly concerned for Raheem Mostert, who popped up on the injury report with a knee injury which is about the last thing on this Earth you want to see associated with him. Suppose this is just a no-biggie, and Miami is just listing him out of caution.
In that case, Mostert is a strong RB2 after averaging 18 touches and 101.5 total yards since Week 4 as he takes on a Vikings defense that surrendered the tenth-most rushing yards and fourth-highest success rate from Weeks 1 through 4.
Expect 86-degree temperatures, nine mph winds, and mostly sunny skies in Miami for Week 6, with a 20% chance of typical Flordia pop-up showers.
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at New York Giants, O/U 46 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Sure, the Giants are 4-1, but that’s kind of like when the Steelers were undefeated. It’s inflated like a Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloon. They haven’t played anyone like Baltimore. All five of their opponents have been between 22nd and 27th in points per game.
While I love Saquon Barkley against a defense that is 31st in receptions and 28th vs. in receiving yards to RB, I want to point the spotlight on Mark Andrews, one of my Dogs of the Day for Underdog Pick’ems.
The TE2 thus far, Andrews is in a smash spot to go higher than his 6.0 reception projection. With Rashod Bateman out last week, Andrews was busy, hauling in eight of his ten targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns. He’s first in target share (34.1%), second in target/route rate, first in yards, and third in YPRR.
The only time he’s been shut down was vs. Buffalo. News flash — the Giants are the Bills. They’re 25th in DVOA, 29th in catch rate, and allowed the ninth-most receptions to TEs. He will go ballistic on Sunday. Book it.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 6 in East Rutherford, we should expect highs around 66 with six mph winds and mostly sunny skies.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 46 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Remember when the Steelers gave up 31 points in the first half, and we thought there was no way this could get any worse? Welp, guess what, folks? It just might.
Minkah Fitzpatrick. Out. T.J. Watt. Injured reserve. DeMarvin Leal. Injured reserve. Cameron Sutton, Levi Wallace, Ahkello Witherspoon. Out, out, out. That’s two defensive ends and four defensive backs who will miss Week 6. At this point, the Steelers will sign someone eating at Primanti Bros. to play DB.
Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin…start them all and don’t look back. As for the Steelers, well, I’m sitting Najee Harris and almost prefer George Pickens to Diontae Johnson as Tampa locks up No. 1s but ranks fourth in receiving yards allowed per game to No. 2 WRs (68.9).
Pickens went six for 83 last week and is the more explosive option. He’s also decimated Johnson’s value, who has gone from a 33% target share from Week 1-3 to 20% over the last two with a combined 71 yards on seven receptions.
At least the Week 6 weather report will be pleasant in Pittsburgh, with temps around 56, six mph winds, and mostly cloudy skies.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks, O/U 50.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Smoke’em if you got ’em. Or, I guess, start them if you got them. What I am trying to say is there are going to be points on the scoreboard, and you want a piece of it. With the second-highest projected score, we could see a fantasy firestorm.
With Seattle, Kenneth Walker III is a top-15 RB for not only Week 6 but in rest-of-season rankings. He came in and had his welcome to the NFL moment, rushing eight times for 88 yards with a 69-yard touchdown. Nice. Geno Smith is a low-end QB1, and while D.K. Metcalf is a starter too, Tyler Lockett was another of my Underdog Dogs of the Day.
Lockett has topped 90 yards in three of his last four games, sits as the WR8 in PPR scoring, and has scored 13 or more every week since Week 1 with three over 16 points. He’s also gone off against the Cardinals in the past. Last year, he had over 200 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona, and he has six touchdowns in his last four games against the team.
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For Arizona, as long as Kyler Murray keeps off Call of Duty, we should be in good shape to start Marquise Brown as a top-10 WR, Rondale Moore (mid-WR4), and Zach Ertz (top-five TE). Also, Eno Benjamin is a rare fantasy starter for Week 6.
Both James Conner and Darrell Williams have been ruled out, paving the way for Benjamin to flourish. Seattle is 32nd in rushing yards per game, 16th in success rate, and 26th in DVOA vs. receiving backs, thanks to the third-most yards surrendered and sixth-most receptions. He’s a mid-RB2 with the upside of an RB1.
As for the Week 6 weather forecast, we should see clear skies over Seattle, with highs near 57 and seven mph winds.
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 54 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
There is little I can say that either you don’t know or hasn’t been said already. These are the two best teams in the AFC and are loaded with top-tier fantasy assets. Start everyone you normally would in this situation.
While I’d prefer a better option than JuJu Smith-Schuster, it’s hard to turn down eight targets a game from Patrick Mahomes, especially in what should be a shootout.
My recommendation? Pour a drink, kick your feet up, and just be a football fan because this is a special treat we don’t get often. Sometimes there is no need to complicate things.
I’m just upset this isn’t a primetime game. Instead, we have to watch those Thursday Night snoozers, and next week, we get the Steelers on Sunday night and the Bears on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Bills, Rams, Vikings, and Eagles will have byes.
Kansas City’s Week 6 weather forecast should feature sunny skies, 68-degree temperatures, and eight mph winds with the potential for gusts to reach 15mph or more.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5), O/U 42 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
As I noted in my Sunday Night Underdog Pick’ems, they did a good job with the projections because there are not very many easy decisions. It’s much easier for fantasy, where we can set it and forget it with several guys, especially for Philly.
Since the start of last year, only Jonathan Taylor (19) and Damien Harris (18) have more rushing touchdowns than Jalen Hurts (16), who is also tied with James Conner. Miles Sanders the RB13 in PPR despite telling all of the fantasy world not to draft him, and is an RB2 this week. Also, both A.J.Brown and Dallas Goedert are must-starts.
It’s not as easy for the Cowboys, who take on one of the best defenses in the NFL. You have to start CeeDee Lamb but temper expectations against Darius Slay, who put the clamps on Justin Jefferson.
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard eat into each other’s upside and really need a touchdown to make it worth it. I would also stay far away from Dalton Schultz, who cannot be considered for fantasy until Dak Prescott returns.
Expect 60-degree temperatures, three mph winds, mostly cloudy skies, and a 25% chance of precipitation in Philadelphia for Week 6.
Indoor Games in Week 6
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecast and reports are that it will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons
O/U 45 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
O/U 41 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at New Orleans Saints
O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)
O/U 41.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET - Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
O/U 45.5 | Monday 8 p.m. PM ET