As we would expect from Week 18 of any NFL season, it looks set to be a chilly one around the league. However, with seven games on Sunday being played in a stadium with a roof, the impact of the cold weather should be mitigated.
That said, there are seven outdoor games, with at least six of them having to cope with some sort of adverse weather, be it temperature, rain, or wind. Let’s examine the Week 18 NFL forecast and analyze the impact of those conditions on fantasy football managers and the scoring potential of the games being played.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 18 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: 15-20 degrees Fahrenheit
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-8 mph northerly
It’s going to be a very cold day in Lambeau Field for the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Both teams will be used to these conditions, having outdoor stadiums in the north of the country, so there isn’t too much concern about how they will handle it.
As a rookie, Caleb Williams carries a little more concern than Jordan Love, but he’s been hard to trust this season anyway.
While these weather conditions may look brutal, they don’t usually impact the game too much. Only seven games have been played with this combination of temperature and wind conditions in the last decade, but the average output is 44.43 actual points and an average of 89.15 fantasy points per team. Neither of those is far from the league average of 45.52 and 93.72, respectively, in the last decade.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13-15 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 28 mph
The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will experience fairly typical January weather conditions in Foxborough, with cold temperatures and enough wind to be a nuisance. You could even make the case that this is warm for the New England area at this time of year, and the lack of snow makes these conditions fairly friendly for two teams who are more than used to both cold and snow.
In the last decade, 60 games have been played with this combination of temperature and wind conditions, and the average output is 45.70 actual points and an average of 90.69 fantasy points per team. Both of those are around the league average of 45.52 and 93.72 in the last decade.
The gusts will add a little more variability, but not enough that you should be worried about this game more than usual from a weather perspective.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-13 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 25 mph
As is typical for the Northeast at this time of the year, we’ll see cold and fairly windy conditions for the matchup between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. The temperature will be right on the verge of freezing, and the wind will just be enough to irritate kickers and the deep passing without having a major impact.
In the last decade, 60 games have been played with this combination of temperature and wind conditions, and the average output is 45.70 actual points and an average of 90.69 fantasy points per team. Both of those are around the league average of 45.52 and 93.72 in the last decade.
The gusts will add a little more variability, but not enough that you should be worried about this game more than usual from a weather perspective.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-7 mph southeasterly
It’s beautiful conditions in Raymond James Stadium for the matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is absolutely nothing about these conditions that should raise concerns, and we expect both teams to play hard to win.
Games played in these conditions are slightly above the NFL average for actual points and fantasy points in the last decade.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low-to-Mid-40s
- Showers: 40% chance at kickoff varying throughout the game
- Wind: 9-10 mph southerly with gusts up to 22 mph
The game between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium looks set to be played in some pretty gnarly conditions. Other than heavy snowfall, there aren’t many worse combinations of weather conditions than rain, chilly temperatures, and enough wind to impact the game.
The combination of rain and cold temperatures has led to an average 30% decrease in fantasy output over the last 10 years of game data. In 24 games played in these conditions over that timeframe, the average fantasy output is 78.72 per team, with an average of 37 points on the scoreboard between the two teams.
That is in comparison to a fantasy output of between 90-95 fantasy points and around 45 actual points in better conditions or a dome game. When you then factor the wind speed in, you’re looking at a further drop of around 5%, with an average fantasy point total of around 70-75 per team and somewhere around 35 actual points.
The biggest impact comes in the passing game, with quarterbacks averaging under 10 points per game with their arms in these conditions. The running game sees a slight pickup, but not so significant that all fringe running backs become a must-start. The kicking game also suffers, with less than 75% of kicks from beyond 40 yards being made in these conditions.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-20s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph variable
While the game between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs in Denver might not be the coldest game of the day, it is expected to be very chilly, with temperatures below freezing. That shouldn’t faze either team, which is used to these kinds of temperatures in their local environments at this time of year.
These conditions do have a slight impact on the output of games. In 15 games over the last decade played in these conditions, the average output is 39.93 actual points and an average of 83.57 fantasy points per team. Both of those are slightly below the league average in the last decade, but not significantly.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-17 mph northeasterly
The Miami Dolphins may consider themselves lucky with these weather conditions. This time of year, MetLife can occasionally see freezing temperatures and snowfall, but neither of those is set to be the case in Week 18.
The wind strength will decrease throughout the game, so conditions should actually get easier. The majority of the game looks set to be played with wind speeds in the 10-15 mph range.
These conditions have a slight impact on the output of games. In 69 games over the last decade played in these conditions, the average output is 41.29 actual points and an average of 85.83 fantasy points per team. Both of those are slightly below the league average of 45.52 and 93.72 in the last decade, but not significantly.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.