Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 18 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 18: A Worry-Free Forecast for the Final Week of Fantasy
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 18 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 18 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5), O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
On Monday, the game of football became secondary to the game of life. Yet following the news of Demar Hamiln’s miraculous progression, the Buffalo Bills and the NFL collective turn their attention to a game with significant implications as the Bills remain in must-win mode. They might hang 50 on the Patriots, given their motivation.
I love Dawson Knox this week as a TE1. New England has allowed a tight end to score a touchdown in two of their last three games and is one of four teams this year (Miami, Arizona, and Detroit) allowing at least ten touchdowns to opposing TEs.
MORE: Who Should I Start in Fantasy Football in Week 18?
As for New England, Rhamondre Stevenson took a massive hit to his value, with Damien Harris returning and seeing 12 opportunities. Stevenson is a mid-RB2 against the Bills, who are ninth in rush DVOA since Week 12.
As for the Week 18 weather forecast in Buffalo, expect partly sunny skies and 36-degree temperatures with seven mph winds.
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) at Chicago Bears, O/U 42.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Justin Fields (hip) is out for the Chicago Bears, and in his place will be Nathan Peterman. I don’t expect many fantasy-relevant Bears players to play much at all and would stay away from them for fantasy or DFS.
Minnesota is a different story, as a win plus a San Francisco 49ers loss would equal a No. 2 seed for the Vikings. They’ll be coming out blazing. Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson are all top-six at their respective positions against a Bears defense that, since Week 12, is 29th in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per dropback, 29th in rushing success rate, 31st in fantasy points per game, and 32nd in yards per carry.
Chicago’s Week 18 weather should feature 36-degree temperatures, mostly cloudy skies, and five mph winds.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5), O/U 39.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
It sounds like there is a chance Lamar Jackson could be back for the Wild Card round, but that won’t help the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18, as they elevated Brett Hundley after releasing him earlier in the year. Tyler Huntley has been limited all week, and it appears that Hundley or Anthony Brown will be under center.
Mark Andrews is a low-end TE1, but I would avoid J.K. Dobbins if possible, as the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed only three running backs to rush for more than 70 yards and held a combination of Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, and Rhamondre Stevenson to 44 or fewer rushing yards apiece in the past five games.
The Bengals are playing in a must-win game despite having clinched the AFN North, but a win keeps them from needing a coin flip to decide the location of the next game. Expect them to go all out, and fire up the Bengals players in your lineups.
Expect 41-degree temperatures, five mph winds, and mostly cloudy skies in Cincinnati, with a 40% chance of flurries with no accumulation for Week 18.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5), O/U 37.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Rather than Mike White vs. Tua Tagovailoa, it will be Joe Flacco against Skylar Thompson at quarterback. Oddly enough, I don’t mind Flacco and what it means for Garrett Wilson. In his three starts, Flacco threw for at least 285 yards in each game, including one with four touchdowns. Since Week 13, Miami has been 24th in passing yards allowed and 28th in EPA per dropback.
I’m less bullish on Miami and am downgrading both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle a bit, but they remain starters in Week 18. New York is 12th in DVOA and fifth in success rate against the pass since Week 13.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 18 in Miami, we should expect highs around 78 with five mph winds and sunny skies.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5), O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Somehow, someway, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a shot at the playoffs despite sitting 3-7 in Week 11. They are 6-2 since their bye, and with a win and losses by New England and Miami, the Steelers would sneak in and ensure Mike Tomlin extends his streak of seasons with a winning record. The fact that Steelers fans need to cheer for Flacco is hilarious.
Even if the passing game with Kenny Pickett, George Pickens, and Diontae Johnson isn’t the best for fantasy, Najee Harris has turned it up as of late and is the top fantasy asset for the team.
Since Week 10, he’s averaged 19.6 touches and 87.5 total yards and last week rushed 22 times for 111 yards and caught two of his three targets for 12 yards and a touchdown. He is a low-end RB1 for the first time in 2022, but perhaps he saved the best for last after dealing with a foot injury for the majority of the season.
Cleveland has nothing to play for other than to play spoiler to the Steelers. I feel they will keep their starters in for the majority of the game, and I’d play Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper if you have them.
Expect 40-degree temperatures, light winds, and sunny skies in Pittsburgh for Week 18.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-16.5), O/U 43.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
According to Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post Sports, QB Davis Webb is expected to get the start. A former third-round pick of 2017, Webb has yet to throw a pass in the NFL. It’s a clear sign of the New York Giants resting their players, as they cannot change their seeding for the playoffs.
Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is expected to return, having missed the previous two games. Fire up your Philadelphia Eagles fantasy players like Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
As for the Week 18 weather forecast in Philadelphia, expect sunny skies and 43-degree temperatures with four mph winds.
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Washington Commanders, O/U 40.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Washington Commanders are looking towards 2023 as they give Sam Howell his first career action, having selected him out of North Carolina in the fifth round (No. 144) back in April. I’m generally excited to see how he looks on the field, but I wouldn’t be touching him or the pass catchers for fantasy. Additionally, Brian Robinson is out, and with Antonio Gibson on IR, Jonathan Williams will start at RB.
The Dallas Cowboys are highly motivated, as a win over Washington and a Philly loss would secure the divisional title. If the San Francisco 49ers lose, Dallas would also snag the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Treat Dallas players as you typically would, and expect a monster day from CeeDee Lamb.
Washington D.C.’s Week 18 weather should feature 41-degree temperatures, overcast skies, four mph winds, and a 40% chance of light flurries with no accumulation.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3), O/U 39.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
We’ve been avoiding the majority of Denver Broncos players this year outside of TE Greg Dulcich (IR), who was the only consistent fantasy option. With him on IR and Jerry Jeudy moving back into the slot more last week, I am avoiding this offense once again and hope 2023 is better.
The Los Angeles Chargers provide a bit more nuance but a similar result. HC Brandon Staley has laid out the game plan. He acknowledged there is an advantage to securing the No. 5 seed, which is something that’s on the table if the Chargers win and the Ravens lose.
If Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, which I do expect, the Chargers will know their destiny due to Baltimore kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET and kickoff in Denver happening at 4:25 p.m. ET. I don’t expect players like Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, or the other starters to see much action if any. It’s a game to avoid on both sides for fantasy.
Expect 41-degree temperatures, five mph winds, and partly sunny skies in Denver for Week 18.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.5), O/U 39.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Arizona has been out of the playoff picture for a while. James Conner (shin/knee) is also out, as is DeAndre Hopkins. Corey Clement will start at RB, but I would not start him or play him in DFS against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
San Francisco has it all to play for on Sunday, as a win, and an Eagles loss means the playoffs will come through Santa Clara as they earn the No. 1 seed. To do so, they might need to rely more on Elijah Mitchell as he comes off IR due to Christian McCaffrey nursing an ankle injury.
He is off the injury report, but with so much more to play for, I would see the backfield being split more than normal. I would still start McCaffrey even if he only had one leg.
As for the weather forecast report in Week 18 in Santa Clara, we should expect 55-degree temperatures and mostly cloudy skies with nine mph winds and a 35% chance for light rain at less than 0.02 in/hr. The NFL got lucky, as the game will fall in a gap in the weather despite the historic rain pummeling the West Coast.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-6), O/U 41.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Rams have been out for a while, but they have been playing their starters anyway. Cam Akers is the only player I trust, which is funny, given the roller coaster he has been on this year.
He has seen 12 or more carries in six of his last seven games, and with 123 yards on 19 carries in Week 17, he has 100 yards in back-to-back outings and has finished no worse than the RB25 since Week 13. The Seattle Seahawks have allowed nine touchdowns to running backs in their last six games and are 28th in success rate and 31st in yards allowed since Week 12. Akers is a low-end RB1 to start in Week 18.
MORE: Wharton’s Start ’em Sit ’em Week 18
With a win and a Green Bay Packers loss, Seattle can get into the playoffs and extend their season. They’re going all out, as Green Bay doesn’t play until Sunday Night Football. The last time Geno Smith faced the Rams, he threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns. He’s a QB1, and Kenneth Walker III is an RB1.
After limiting his snaps, he’s averaged 24.5 carries and 120 rushing yards over his last two games and should feast against a Rams defense that is 26th in success rate and EPA while also sitting 22nd in yards per game.
Seattle’s Week 18 weather should feature 48-degree temperatures, overcast skies, nine mph winds, and a 40% chance of rain at less than 0.01 in/hr.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5), O/U 49.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
The Packers messed around and somehow are still in the mix after being left for dead by many. With a win, they’re in. As for the Detroit Lions, it’s the usual… wait, no, it’s not. With a win over the Packers and a loss by the Seahawks, the Detroit freaking Lions would be in the playoffs.
What Dan Campbell and Co. have done to turn this franchise around is incredible and Coach of the Year worthy. Situations like this are why the NFL schedules divisional games for Week 18.
Both teams are going to go all out, and it’s also the matchup I covered for some of my favorite Underdog Pick’ems. Even if your season is over, there are still ways to keep the fantasy season going.
Expect 26-degree temperatures, light winds, and partly cloudy skies in Green Bay for Week 18.
Indoor Games in Week 18
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, the only forecasts and reports are that there will be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
O/U 37.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
O/U 40.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
O/U 41.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET