To quote Vaughn Monroe, Frank Sinatra, and various other singers, “the weather outside is frightful.” That’s the theme of the week for Week 17 of the NFL season.
Fantasy football managers will do a lot of head-scratching this week as they try to set lineups for their fantasy playoffs. Wind and rain are set to cause havoc around the NFL schedule.
The good news is that temperatures are set to be mostly friendly so that mitigates some of the damage. However, wind and rain can still significantly impact fantasy output. Let’s examine the full NFL weather forecast and what it could mean for fantasy managers in Week 17.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 17 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: >90% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 14-20 mph southerly with gusts up to 40 mph
It’s going to be a wet and windy day in Highmark Stadium as the Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets. The chance of rain is at 50% or above throughout the game and should be heaviest at kickoff before reducing in intensity throughout the second half. However, as the rain dies down, the wind is forecasted to pick up, with sustained winds reaching 20 mph and gusts of double that speed.
In just this season alone, games with rain at kickoff have seen an average fantasy output decrease of around 10-15%. That is based on a relatively small sample size, but when we extend that back over the last decade, the numbers hold steady on a larger sample size.
The average fantasy points scored in a clear weather game over that time period is just over 94 per team. When there is rain at kickoff, that drops to just over 84. That is a decrease of just over 10% in fantasy output, solely based on whether there is rain falling during the game.
When you then factor in wind speed, things get more dicey for fantasy managers. Games with rain and wind speeds between 15-19 mph see, on average, a drop to below 75 fantasy points per game per team. That is a decrease of more than 20% from those in “ideal conditions” or games played in domes.
The biggest impact is naturally felt in the passing and kicking games. The passing game sees a drop of around 25-30% in games with conditions such as these while kicking success rates plummet to below 60% on kicks over 40 yards and below 45% on kicks over 50 yards. As you would expect, there is minimal impact on the run game, as teams tend to lean more heavily on that side of things.
The bit we cannot fully account for is the gusts. It is hard to collect data based on gusts, but what we can predict is that they will exacerbate the already pronounced decline in the passing and kicking games. Therefore, you may want to consider avoiding those elements entirely from the Jets and Bills rosters this week.
Complicating matters even further is the fact that we do not fully know how the Bills will play this game. The No. 1 seed is gone, so Buffalo might be tempted to rest some of its starters over the next two weeks. But we can reasonably expect them to play hard this week to look and secure the No. 2 seed before resting starters in Week 18.
Still, fantasy managers should be cautious with the Bills’ wide receivers and tight ends, and we could easily see James Cook’s touches be limited. It’s close to impossible to bench Josh Allen, but you have to prepare yourself mentally so that he can sit out the final quarter if this game gets out of hand.
From a Jets’ perspective, the weather makes me dubious about starting Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, but the matchup is nice with a Bills defense that has a tendency to be a little leaky at times. Breece Hall looks like the best start on New York, but he’s had some struggles this year, and the Jets may not want to pile carries on him in what is essentially a meaningless game for them.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: >90% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 15-16 mph southerly with gusts up to 25 mph
There could be all kinds of disruption to the game in Jacksonville between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Rain is expected to fall throughout the 1-4 p.m. ET window and will be accompanied by sustained winds around 15 mph and with gusts up to 25 mph.
However, the biggest disruption may come in the form of thunder and lightning, which could cause a game delay. A significant delay could actually benefit fantasy managers if it means that the game is played an hour or two later when the winds are expected to have died down. Thunder is highly likely between 1 and 4 p.m., with the chances dropping down either side of that.
The average fantasy points scored in a clear weather game over the last decade is just over 94 per team. When there is rain at kickoff, that drops to just over 84. That is a decrease of just over 10% in fantasy output, solely based on whether there is rain falling during the game.
When you then factor in wind speed, things get more dicey for fantasy managers. Games with rain and wind speeds between 15-19 mph see, on average, a drop to below 75 fantasy points per game per team. That is a decrease of more than 20% from those in “ideal conditions” or games played in domes.
The biggest impact is naturally felt in the passing and kicking games. The passing game sees a drop of around 25-30% in games with conditions such as these, while kicking success rates plummet to below 60% on kicks over 40 yards and below 45% on kicks over 50. As you would expect, there is minimal impact on the run game, as teams tend to lean more heavily on that side of things.
The gusts here are not a huge increase, so we shouldn’t worry too much about them, especially with limited data on gusts.
These conditions significantly hurt players like Brian Thomas Jr. and Calvin Ridley, who are the focal point of their respective passing games. There’s not a lot to be excited about in this game from a fantasy perspective in the first place, so it would be fully understandable if fantasy managers just decided to pretend this game doesn’t exist when setting lineups.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: 10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-9 mph southeasterly
This may end up being the best outdoor game of the day in terms of weather, with the current forecast having the rain stopping from around 12 to 7 p.m. When you combine that with reasonable temperatures and very little wind, this game is one that should not see a significant downgrade for fantasy managers.
Unfortunately, it’s also a game with very little obvious fantasy value outside of Jonathan Taylor.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <20% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 11-13 mph southerly with gusts up to 25 mph
It looks like the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles could also escape the worst of the weather in the Philadelphia area this week. Current forecasts have the rain stopping around noon and not restarting until 5 p.m. Even then, the heavy stuff isn’t expected to fall until closer to 8 p.m., so this game could avoid being a washout like others this week.
There is some wind to account for, but as long as the rain doesn’t fall, the wind shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Games played in clear conditions with wind speeds over 10 mph see a drop of less than 5% in terms of fantasy output over the last decade.
The gusting speed is more of an issue, but predicting the frequency of those gusts is hard to do. Caution would say to try and avoid the kicking game in these conditions, but with Brandon Aubrey and Jake Elliott kicking, that’s not something you want to be doing unless you have another rock-solid option this week.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-70s
- Showers: 70% chance at kickoff decreasing throughout the game
- Wind: 10 mph southerly
When you factor in the temperature and the fact that the rain is set to reduce in intensity around kickoff, the matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Raymond James Stadium may give MetLife a run for its money in the “best weather of the day” contest.
This is yet another game where heavy rain is expected in the morning before easing off during game time. The average fantasy points scored in a clear weather game over the last decade is just over 94 per team. When there’s rain at kickoff, that drops to just over 84. That is a decrease of just over 10% in fantasy output, solely based on whether rain falls during the game.
The wind, at around 10 mph, does add a little bit more of a drop, but there’s a chance we see very little rain during the game itself, limiting the concern. When you combine it all, this game is one where you shouldn’t worry about starting your main passing-game options like Mike Evans and Adam Thielen. It could end up being a very entertaining shootout.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns Weather
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: 25% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 20-22 mph southerly with gusts up to 45 mph
The Cleveland forecast for the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns is a bit of a mess right now.
There is heavy rain forecast in the morning, but it should ease off somewhat leading into kickoff before being forecast to spike again around halftime and then dropping off almost completely by the end of the game. However, there is reasonably heavy rain forecast for the evening in Cleveland, which could easily end up hitting the stadium at some point in the second half.
The two constants in the forecast are the temperature and the wind. The temperature will be nice, but sustained wind at 20+ mph and gusts over 45 mph are forecast.
With so much uncertainty, there’s a case to be made that you should avoid this game altogether. If the worst conditions of the wind and rain both hit during this game you are looking at a 25% decrease in fantasy output based on historical data. When you then consider that Tyler Huntley and Dorian Thompson-Robinson are quarterbacking the two teams, it becomes much easier to avoid this game altogether.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: >80% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 11-13 mph southerly with gusts up to 23 mph
While fantasy managers may get lucky with the weather forecast in some of the earlier games of the day, the weather over FedEx Field looks to be at its worst right as the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons take to the field.
There’s an 80% chance of rain forecasted throughout the game as well as sustained winds over 10 mph with gusts over 20 mph.
The average fantasy points scored in a clear weather game over that time period is just over 94 per team. When there is rain at kickoff, that drops to just over 84. That is a decrease of just over 10% in fantasy output, solely based on whether there is rain falling during the game.
Games with rain and wind speeds between 11-15 mph see, on average, a slightly further drop to just over 80 fantasy points per game per team. That is a decrease of more than 15% from games in “ideal conditions” or those played in domes.
The biggest impact is naturally felt in the passing and kicking games. The passing game sees a drop of around 20% in games with conditions such as these, while kicking success rates drop to below 75% on kicks over 40 yards and below 50% on kicks over 50.
As you would expect, there is minimal impact on the run game, with teams tending to lean more heavily on that side of things.
The gusts add further complications, meaning that the kicking games on both sides are probably best avoided if you weren’t already.
In the passing game, you should already be hesitant about putting too much faith in Michael Penix Jr. in just his second start. Jayden Daniels’ legs make him a player you can still trust, and the only receiver who is probably worth the risk is Terry McLaurin.
The run game should be profitable on both sides of this one. The B. Robinson clash should see both have the potential for plenty of value. Bijan Robinson has a supremely high ceiling in this one, especially if the weather forces the ball into his hands more. Brian Robinson is a little less exciting but is someone you can likely start with the ball expected to be in the hands of the backs plenty during this game.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers Weather
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Monday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: <5 mph northwesterly
Monday Night Football looks set to be the coldest outdoor game this week, with temperatures dipping into the high 40s. However, with no rain anywhere on the forecast and wind speeds below 5 mph, this game could decide many fantasy matchups.
With temperature alone having a very minimal impact on fantasy output over the last decade, the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel Sr. could all be in for big days in what could be somewhat of a shootout in the Bay Area.
When the Monday Night Football forecast is set fairly, it always takes a lot of stress out of fantasy decision-making, and that’s the case in what will be Championship Week for many.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.