Today, we break down this week’s football slate, see what the NFL weather report and forecast for Week 15 will be, and determine if any of your fantasy football players could be impacted. As always, good luck, stay safe, and let’s win the week!
NFL Weather Report and Forecast for Week 15: Chilly but Worry-Free Weather
All times are Eastern, and the NFL Week 15 weather report will be updated if any changes happen from the time of writing to kickoff. The NFL weather forecast for Week 15 is based on reports from the National Weather Service. All betting lines are from the NFL’s official website.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3), O/U 37.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Week 15 is just ugly—top to bottom, ugly. Pittsburgh is a prime example of this, as instead of Kenny Pickett, it’s Mitch Trubiusky under center. Yay, I can’t wait. When you hear the reports coming out that the players actually wanted Mason Rudolph, that pretty much says it all.
2022 hasn’t been the bounceback Trubisky wanted. He’s 27th in fantasy points per dropback, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 37th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Needless to say, both Diontae Johnson (WR32) and George Pickens (WR42) are going to drop in Week 15 rankings. Also, I shouldn’t need to tell you this, but I will. Do not start Trubiksy. There, I did my public service for the month.
MORE: Wharton’s Start ’em Sit ’em Week 15
As for the weather in Charlotte, expect sunny skies with 47-degree temperatures and six mph winds.
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Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) at Chicago Bears, O/U 48.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
You won’t find a game that will feature two more prolific athletes at QB than you do here with Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields. How’s this for an example? With 217 yards passing and 77 rushing yards with three combined TDs last week, Jalen Hurts became only the fourth QB in NFL history with 3,000+ pass yards (3,157), 20+ TD passes (22), and 10+ rush TDs (10) in a single season, joining Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, and Kordell Stewart.
As for the other side of the field, Fields has been spectacular while becoming a no-matter-what must-start. Part of this is absolutely due to his rushing upside. Not only does Fields have three rushing touchdowns of 50+ yards in 2022, the most by QB in a single season in NFL history, but he has 905 rushing yards on the year, the 6th-most by QB in a single season. He can become just the third quarterback (Lamar Jackson (twice) and Micheal Vick) with 1,000+ rush yards in a single season.
Hurts is the QB1 in Week 15, with A.J. Brown and Miles Sanders both inside the top ten at their respective positions, while Fields is the QB6 despite having limited receiving options and facing a tougher matchup.
Expect 26-degree temperatures that will feel closer to 15 in Chicago with mostly cloudy skies and 12 to 15 mph winds with occasional gusts reaching closer to 20 mph. Based on the playstyle of these teams, I’m not worried, outside of kickers, perhaps.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 48 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
I’m calling it now that come draft season next year, we will be viewing Trevor Lawrence like we do Justin Herbert, despite the latter being “a social media QB.” Since Week 6, Lawrence has been the QB6, both overall and in points per game at 20.6 PPR. He’s finished as a QB1 in six of his last eight games, and since Week 9, he’s 10th in yards per attempt and second in adjusted completion rate.
Dallas has presented a difficult matchup this year. Since Week 10, they’ve been ninth in success rate, seventh in yards allowed, and fourth in EPA. Nevertheless, I would trust Lawrence has a QB1 in Week 15. He needs just 298 pass yards to become the eighth QB in NFL history with 3,500+ pass yards in each of the first two seasons.
As for the weather forecast for Week 15 in Jacksonville, expect sunny skies and 57-degree temperatures with winds around ten mph.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1), O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
And this is where the week begins to take a turn, just like the weather will around Indiana and Ohio next week around the 23rd of the month, when we could see something eerily similar to the blizzard of 1978 based on the most recent GFS models.
But that’s next week. We have enough to deal with here, as the list of QBs is disgusting for the pro leagues. Not only do we have Trubisky, Brett Rypien, Colt McCoy, Desmond Ridder, Sam Darnold, and Tyler Huntley, but so too the Mother Lover himself, Zach Wilson.
But surely having the No. 2 overall pick back under center can only be a good thing? Yeah, well, not so fast, my friend, as once Wilson was named the starter against the Detroit Lions, the oddsmakers moved the line three points in favor of Detroit. Yikes.
It’s also devastating to Garrett Wilson managers as, despite the juicy matchup, he has tumbled down the rankings from WR11 to just barely holding onto WR2 status with a substantially more volatile outlook.
If there’s any positive, Zonovan Knight should be active as an RB2 this week for fantasy. Even though Michael Carter returned to the lineup last week, Knight played on 47% of the snaps with 19 touches and 77 total yards with a score to finish as the RB13 on the week.
The Lions are more challenging than they used to be the run the ball against. Yet, since Week 10, they’re 14th in success rate and 15th in yards per carry, and they allow 3.3 yards after contact, which suits Knight’s rushing style.
Expect 39-degree temperatures in East Rutherford with mostly sunny skies and seven mph winds with occasional gusts of 15 mph.
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-1.5), O/U 36.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
In the blue corner, Brett Rypien. In the red corner, Colt McCoy. Who wins? I don’t, but it sure isn’t going to be us with our playoff lives on the line. McCoy is a game manager with no upside, and his one goal is not to screw up DeAndre Hopkins too much. In his three games under center with the Cardinals, Hopkins has a 31.4% target share, a 43.4% air yard share, a 25% end zone target share, and averages 89.3 receiving yards.
Last week Hopkins led the team with seven receptions and 79 receiving yards, and since Week 7, he leads NFL with 56 receptions and ranks fourth with 653 yards. But it’s a more challenging matchup in Week 15 as he takes on Patrick Surtain II. I’d still leave Hopkins in the WR1 range.
MORE: WR Injury Report Week 15
When it comes to the Denver Broncos, I want to trust Jerry Jeudy, but that is asking a lot. Jeudy has had a 20.3% target share with a 25.6% air-yard share with Courtland Sutton out of the lineup and finished as the WR39 and WR1, thanks to three scores last week. He’ll be in the low-end WR2 range but could disappear.
As for the weather in Denver, expect partly sunny skies with 45-degree temperatures and seven mph winds.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 44.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
I have trust issues because of people like Zach Taylor of the Cincinnati Bengals, who played games with us last week over the status of Tee Higgins. Higgins is allegedly going to play this week after recording a full participation on Friday. If he does, he is a WR2, but I’ll believe it when I see it because I am about as petty as it comes.
Someone who I am not touching with a Grinch-sized 39-and-a-half-foot pole is Leonard Fournette. He has played on 50% or fewer of the team’s snaps in his last three games, averaging just 2.3 yards after contact, the second worst amongst running backs with 100+ carries.
What doesn’t help is the matchup against the Bengals, who have held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 yards. It’s not like they faced no-name players, as that list includes Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. With Tampa Bay likely trailing and Rachaad White as the primary receiving back in those situations, Fournette is someone I cannot trust in Week 15.
Expect 68-degree temperatures in Tampa with mostly sunny skies and seven mph winds.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5), O/U 40.5 | Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
I want to be excited for the primetime games this weekend, but I’m kind of just “blah” about them, to use my extensive vocabulary and communication skills. The only intriguing angle is that currently, all four NFC East teams are in the playoffs if the season ended today.
It also was just a few short weeks ago, back in Week 13, when these teams last met, with the game ending in an anti-climatic 20-20 tie. As this is Sunday Night Football, I did break down some of my favorite Underdog Pick’ems, which you can find here.
As for the weather forecast for Week 15 in Washington D.C., expect mostly clear skies and 32-degree temperatures with winds around seven mph.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7), O/U 39.5 | Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Can lightning strike twice, or did Baker Mayfield use up all of his magic last week? Mayfield completed 22 of 35 attempts (62.9%) for 230 yards and a TD with no picks in his Los Angeles Rams debut. He orchestrated the longest go-ahead TD drive (98 yards) that began in the final two minutes in the past 45 seasons. Not bad for less than 48 hours’ notice. What can he do with over a week?
MORE: RB Injury Report Week 15
Speaking of time off, the Green Bay Packers are back after a late-season bye, and the Frozen Tundra will hope to be warmed up by the incendiary hot connection between Aaron Rodgers and Christian Watson. Over his last four games, Watson scored eight touchdowns with WR3, WR8, WR10, and WR8 finishes. Since Week 10, he has had a 23.9% target share (6.8 targets per game), 45.8% air yard share, and a 45.5% end zone target share.
Watson is also the sixth rookie in the Super Bowl era with eight TDs in a four-game. One more on Monday Night Football and Watson can become the first rookie since 2004 (Lee Evans) with a receiving touchdown in five straight games.
Expect 21-degree temperatures in Green Bay with overcast skies and a 40% chance of light snow (<0.2″).
Indoor Games in Week 15
Because these NFL games are indoors, the weather conditions can be controlled. As such, it’ll be optimal playing conditions for these teams. The passing and kicking games will not be affected.
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)
O/U 43.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5) at Houston Texans
O/U 49.5 | Sunday 1 p.m. ET - New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)
O/U 45.5 | Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET - Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
O/U 46.5 | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET